Augsburg x Borussia Mgladbach Betting tips for October 4 in Germany Bundesliga I

Our betting tip for Augsburg x Borussia Mgladbach, Friday, 4/10/2024

📅 4/10/2024 15:30

Augsburg 2.38

X 3.75

Borussia Mgladbach 2.65

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Augsburg x Borussia Mgladbach:

🔮 Augsburg wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Augsburg, you can win up to $1190.00!

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Or access: https://www.bet365.com 

Important information for your tip for Augsburg x Borussia Mgladbach: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Augsburg in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-117.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Borussia Mgladbach in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $151.0. 👉 In the last 6 matches as the home team, Augsburg scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against Borussia Mgladbach, Augsburg scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 5 Augsburg matches as the home team, it finished over 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team, Augsburg conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 Augsburg has not lost any of the last 4 head-to-head matches against Borussia Mgladbach playing at home.

Looking for more options of bookmakers for your bet on Augsburg x Borussia Mgladbach?

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Analysis from Augsburg x Borussia Mgladbach for the Germany Bundesliga I – 4 of October

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Augsburg x Borussia Mgladbach right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1194241 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Augsburg x Borussia Mgladbach

Is it a good idea to bet on Augsburg?

🔵 Augsburg: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 42.1%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.38. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 420 times – profiting $579.60;
• And would lose other 580 times – having a loss of -$580.00 with them.

That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$0.40.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 27.61% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.75. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 280 times – having a profit of $770.00;
• And would have lost other 720 times – with a loss of -$720.00 because of them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$50.00.

Should you bet on Borussia Mgladbach?

🔴 Borussia Mgladbach: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 30.3%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.65. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 300 times – having a profit of $495.00;
• And would lose other 700 times – having a loss of -$700.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$205.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Augsburg x Borussia Mgladbach

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.25 Augsburg
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Augsburg x Borussia Mgladbach

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be +0.25 Augsburg, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 0.0 Augsburg.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.0 Borussia Mgladbach.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Augsburg x Borussia Mgladbach

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 3.00 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: – 3.00 goals.