Augsburg x Cologne Betting tips for February 27 in Germany Bundesliga I

Our betting tip for Augsburg x Cologne, Friday, 27/2/2026

📅 27/2/2026 19:30

Augsburg 2.29

X 3.35

Cologne 3.00

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Augsburg x Cologne:

👎 Unfortunately, we do not have any positive expected value tips for Augsburg x Cologne

Important information for your tip for Augsburg x Cologne:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Augsburg in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-115.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Cologne in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500.
👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team, Augsburg scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 matches as the away team, Cologne scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against Cologne, Augsburg scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 Cologne matches as the away team, it finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 6 matches as the away team, Cologne conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Playing as the home team, Augsburg conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 5 head-to-head against Cologne.

🤖 Critical insight from ChatGPT on the prediction for Augsburg vs Cologne:

Lets analyze the match between Augsburg and Cologne at WWK Arena, the official stadium of Augsburg, which guarantees the home team the traditional home advantage. 🏟️

📈 Augsburg has been showing good form recently at home, with 2 wins and no losses in the last 5 games at their stadium, averaging 1.2 goals per game and conceding only 0.8 goals. Meanwhile, Cologne struggles away from home, with no wins in the last 5 away games and a high goals conceded average (2 per game). This indicates a slight favoritism for Augsburg.

📰 The news supports this analysis: Augsburg is on a high after a dramatic victory against Wolfsburg away and has key offensive players in the squad. On the other hand, Cologne recently drew against Leverkusen but has not achieved significant results away from their stadium.

Analyzing the median odds offered by bookmakers (Augsburg: 2.29; Draw: 3.35; Cologne: 3), the normalized implied probabilities are approximately:

• Augsburg win ~42%
• Draw ~28%
• Cologne win ~30%

Considering recent statistical data and the clear home advantage at WWK Arena for Augsburg, I would adjust these probabilities to something close to:

• Augsburg win ~45%
• Draw ~27%
• Cologne win ~28%

Thus, fair odds would be:

• Augsburg: around 2.22
• Draw: around 3.70
• Cologne: around 3.57

Looking at the final available odds (Augsburg – 2.25; Draw – 3.20; Cologne – 3.20), there is only positive expected value in the draw bet (+15% EV) due to the lower quote that my fair estimate suggests for this outcome being less likely.

However, the Bets Kenya model suggests positive value only in the away win (Cologne) bet with EV +1.76%, but this does not align well with recent data or the clear advantage of the home team playing at their usual stadium.

Final suggestion:
I disagree with the models suggestion to bet on the away win here — I see more security in betting on the draw or even a small confidence in Augsburgs victory given their good home form and strong local support.
The most interesting expected value is on the draw considering the current odds from the bookmakers.

⚽️💡 Betting on the draw might be a smart move here!

Looking for another bookie to bet on Augsburg x Cologne?

If you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Augsburg x Cologne, no problem. Right below you have the sports betting sites that we used the most in 2026. You will be in good hands on any of them, just pick your favorite and start betting:

Analysis from Augsburg x Cologne for the Germany Bundesliga I – 27 of February

Latest news on Augsburg x Cologne

FC Augsburg: FC Augsburg is in good form, most recently beating Union Berlin 1-0 in the Bundesliga and enjoying a dramatic 3-2 away victory against VfL Wolfsburg, which dampened the latters survival hopes; the team continues to benefit from the offensive contributions of former Augsburg striker Ermedin Demirovic – who left after the 2023/24 season to join Celtic in Glasgow and has already been praised for his performances there – while the 2023/24 graduate Arne Engels remains an important figure in the current squad.

1. FC Köln: The latest news from Cologne clubs shows that 1. FC Kölns first team shared points in the Bundesliga, drawing 2-2 with Bayer Leverkusen after Ragnar Aches equalizer, while the reserve team, 1. FC Köln II, suffered a narrow 1-0 defeat to Wuppertaler SV in the Regionalliga West, after a late goal by Bouzraa.

Table analysis for the match between Augsburg and Cologne

Augsburg: Augsburg is in 10th place with 28 points, fighting to move away from the danger zone of relegation. The points race this round is crucial to try to distance themselves from the teams just below in the table, which have between 20 and 26 points. With a good margin to escape direct relegation, the team still needs to secure more points to ensure peace of mind in the final rounds and maybe even climb a bit in the middle of the table. Therefore, the match against Cologne is relevant for Augsburg to maintain this stability and even seek a more comfortable position.

Cologne: Cologne is in 12th place with 24 points, four points behind Augsburg. They are in a similar situation, trying to escape the lower part of the table. For Cologne, every extra point is essential to avoid falling further in the standings and to leave the relegation threat behind. Since the team is close to Augsburg in the table, this direct confrontation is strategic and decisive for the clubs goals this season.

Summary: The duel is important for both teams, as it involves a direct fight to move away from relegation risk and seek some stability in the Bundesliga. A positive result can bring valuable breath and confidence for this final stretch. ⚽🔥

How the handicap and odds moved for Augsburg x Cologne

It is always useful to analyse how the odds and the handicap behaved over time. This helps us understand where the betting market is heading and what punters expect for the match between Augsburg x Cologne.

Below you will see a summary that compares the opening odds with the current odds in the main markets: 1X2, handicap and goals.

Tips for the 1×2 market for Augsburg x Cologne

When the best bet on Augsburg x Cologne is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1488001 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Should you bet on Augsburg?

🔵 Augsburg: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 39.71%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.29. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 400 times – this would give you a profit of $516.00
• And would have lost other 600 times – with a loss of -$600.00 because of them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$84.00.

Should you bet on draw?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 28.88%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.35. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 290 times – this would give you a profit of $681.50
• And would lose other 710 times – losing -$710.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$28.50.

Is it worth betting on Cologne?

🔴 Cologne: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 31.41% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.00. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 310 times – this would give you a profit of $620.00
• And would have lost other 690 times – with a loss of -$690.00 because of them.

Even if it is a positive expected value bet, the expected profit is just 💰$70.00 which is not worth the risk in our opinion.

Handicaps analysis for the match Augsburg x Cologne

The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Augsburg
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Augsburg x Cologne

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 0.0 Augsburg, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.25 Augsburg.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.25 Cologne.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Augsburg x Cologne

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.75 goals.

The handicap that our algorithm found is the same as the bookies, which means that there is not any value to bet on the Goals Handicap market.

FAQs: Frequently asked questions about the tip for Augsburg x Cologne