Augsburg x Mainz Betting tips for September 20 in Germany Bundesliga I

Our betting tip for Augsburg x Mainz, Friday, 20/9/2024

📅 20/9/2024 15:30

Augsburg 2.64

X 3.48

Mainz 2.52

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Augsburg x Mainz:

👎 Umm…what a pity! We do not have any positive expected value tips for Augsburg x Mainz

The main points for the tip for Augsburg x Mainz: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Augsburg in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $138.0. 👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team, Augsburg scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 6 matches as the away team, Mainz scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against Mainz, Augsburg scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 4 Augsburg matches as the home team, it finished over 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 4 Mainz matches as the away team, it finished over 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 5 head-to-head matches between Augsburg x Mainz, with Augsburg as the home team, they finished over 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team, Augsburg conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 Playing as the home team, Augsburg conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 5 head-to-head against Mainz. 👉 In the last 6 road matches, Mainz has not lost any of them.

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Analysis from Augsburg x Mainz for the Germany Bundesliga I – 20 of September

When the best bet on Augsburg x Mainz is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1184054 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Augsburg x Mainz

Is it worth betting on Augsburg?

🔵 Augsburg: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 38.61% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.64. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 390 times – profiting $639.60;
• And would lose other 610 times – losing -$610.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$29.60.

Should you bet on draw?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 24.09%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.48. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 240 times – this would give you a profit of $595.20
• And would lose other 760 times – losing -$760.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$164.80.

Is it worth betting on Mainz?

🔴 Mainz: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 37.3% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.52. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 370 times – having a profit of $562.40;
• And would lose other 630 times – having a loss of -$630.00 with them.

Even if it is a positive expected value bet, the expected profit is just 💰$67.60 which is not worth the risk in our opinion.

Handicaps analysis for the match Augsburg x Mainz

The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.5 Augsburg
⚽ Expected goals: 3.25 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Augsburg x Mainz

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is +0.5 Augsburg and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 0.0 Augsburg.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.50, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.0 Mainz.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Augsburg x Mainz

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 3.25 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.50 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.75, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.