Augsburg x Werder Bremen Betting tips for December 20 in Germany Bundesliga I

Our betting tip for Augsburg x Werder Bremen, Saturday, 20/12/2025

📅 20/12/2025 14:30

Augsburg 2.20

X 3.50

Werder Bremen 3.00

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Augsburg x Werder Bremen:

🔮 Augsburg wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Augsburg, you can win up to $1100.00!

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Important information for your tip for Augsburg x Werder Bremen:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Augsburg in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $110.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Werder Bremen in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500.
👉 In the last 4 Augsburg matches as the home team, it finished under 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 3 head-to-head matches between Augsburg x Werder Bremen, with Augsburg as the home team, they finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 5 matches as the away team, Werder Bremen conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Playing as the home team, Augsburg conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 3 head-to-head against Werder Bremen.

🤖 What’s ChatGPT’s opinion on our prediction for Augsburg vs Werder Bremen?

Lets analyze the match between Augsburg and Werder Bremen at WWK Arena, which is Augsburgs usual stadium, giving them the home advantage. 🏟️

📈 Looking at recent stats, Augsburg has a mixed home performance: scored 3 goals and conceded 8 in the last 5 home games, with 2 wins and 3 losses. Meanwhile, Werder Bremen away scored more (5 goals) but conceded many (12), with no wins in the last five away matches. This indicates a vulnerable Bremen defense when playing away from home.

Shot averages show Augsburg creates more chances (12 per game) compared to Bremen (10), but also suffers more shots. Ball possession is balanced (~47% each). Augsburgs attack seems less efficient, but their defense might be less exposed playing at home.

📰 Recent news reports that interim coach Manuel Baum of Augsburg is trying to stabilize the team despite key injuries like the absence of winger Anton Kade. On the other hand, Werder Bremen faces serious issues: a recent heavy 0-4 home defeat and a red card affecting morale; plus doubts about injured key players and lack of a reliable striker. The visiting team is under intense pressure to escape relegation zone.

Analyzing the median odds provided by betting houses: Augsburgs win is priced around 2.2 (implied probability ~45%), a draw at 3.5 (~29%), and Bremens win at 3 (~33%). Normalizing these probabilities gives approximately: Augsburg ~40%, draw ~26%, Bremen ~34%.

Considering the weak defensive stats of the visitors away from home combined with internal issues in the visiting team as reported in the news, my estimate adjusts to a higher probability of Augsburgs win (~45%), a moderate draw (~28%), and a lower chance of the visitors win (~27%).

The fair odds for betting on Augsburgs victory would be close to or even higher than the current odds offered by betting sites (around 2.1-2.2), indicating value in this bet given their urgent need for points and the home advantage.

The Bets Kenya model suggests very low odds for a home win (1.51) with a high positive expected value (+49%), while undervaluing draws and away wins (<6x odds). I partially agree with this optimistic view of the home team due to evident weaknesses in the opponent; however, I think the odds suggested by the model are excessively low — probably underestimating tactical uncertainties or local injuries mentioned in the news.

Suggestion: Betting on Augsburgs victory seems a good choice with a positive expected value above +5% considering my combined analysis of recent stats, the emotional context of the teams given their current league position/relegation battle, and tactical/injury scenarios described in the news.

Always remember: betting involves risks! Use this analysis as part of your informed decision 😉⚽️

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Analysis from Augsburg x Werder Bremen for the Germany Bundesliga I – 20 of December

When the best bet on Augsburg x Werder Bremen is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1455033 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Latest news about Augsburg x Werder Bremen

FC Augsburg: FC Augsburg is currently under the interim coach Manuel Baum, who publicly criticized the lengthy VAR review periods, comparing them to “waiting in the doctors waiting room,” while the club deals with a series of injuries that left winger Anton Kade out of the last home game of the season; recent tactical analyses highlight a “revolutionary strike” that improved team performance under Baums plan, although the team remains in a precarious position in the Bundesliga and is focused on stabilizing results before the winter break.

Werder Bremen: Werder Bremen suffered a 0-4 home defeat to VfB Stuttgart in the 14th round of the 2025/26 Bundesliga, a match in which Karim Coulibaly was sent off after an incident with a yellow card, leaving coach Horst Steffen furious about the red card, while the shoulder injury of captain Marco Friedl raised doubts about his availability, but now offers some relief for the end of the season; the squad remains under intense pressure after the 2-3 defeat in the Nordderby and the constant lack of a reliable striker, with Victor Boniface still struggling to secure a starting spot, and the teams morale is described as increasingly tense in the fight to escape relegation.

Germany Bundesliga I table analysis for Augsburg x Werder Bremen

Augsburg: Augsburg is in 15th place with 13 points, close to the relegation zone which starts at 16th place with 11 points. With several defeats accumulated and a negative goal difference, this match is crucial to try to move away from relegation danger and secure Bundesliga survival. Each point will be fought for with great effort, as the team cannot afford to lose more ground in the standings.

Werder Bremen: Werder Bremen is in 12th place with 16 points, somewhat more comfortable than the relegation zone, but still far from European competition qualification positions. The match against Augsburg is important to consolidate this advantage and avoid any dangerous closeness from direct competitors, maintaining confidence for the rest of the season.

Summary: This game is quite important for both teams, as Augsburg fights to escape relegation, while Werder Bremen seeks safety to avoid risk. A key clash at the bottom of the table! ⚽🔥

Tips for the 1×2 market for Augsburg x Werder Bremen

Is it worth betting on Augsburg?

🔵 Augsburg: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 56.7% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.20. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 570 times – this would give you a profit of $684.00
• And would lose other 430 times – having a loss of -$430.00 with them.

That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$254.00.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 19.03%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.50. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 190 times – profiting $475.00;
• And would have lost other 810 times – with a loss of -$810.00 because of them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$335.00.

Is betting on Werder Bremen worth it?

🔴 Werder Bremen: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 24.26% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.00. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 240 times – profiting $480.00;
• And would lose other 760 times – having a loss of -$760.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$280.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Augsburg x Werder Bremen

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Augsburg
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Augsburg x Werder Bremen

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.25 Augsburg and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.25 Augsburg.

Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Augsburg x Werder Bremen

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.00 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.75 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.75 goals.