Borussia Dortmund x Bayern Munich Betting tips for February 28 in Germany Bundesliga I

Our betting tip for Borussia Dortmund x Bayern Munich, Saturday, 28/2/2026

📅 28/2/2026 17:30

Borussia Dortmund 4.00

X 4.25

Bayern Munich 1.70

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Borussia Dortmund x Bayern Munich:

🔮 Borussia Dortmund wins the match
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Important information for your tip for Borussia Dortmund x Bayern Munich:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Borussia Dortmund in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $132.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Bayern Munich in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $60.0.
👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team, Borussia Dortmund scored at least 2 goal(s).
👉 In the last 7 matches as the away team, Bayern Munich scored at least 2 goal(s).
👉 In the last 7 Bayern Munich matches as the away team, it finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 Playing as the home team, Borussia Dortmund conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 5 head-to-head against Bayern Munich.
👉 Borussia Dortmund is good playing home: it has 3 wins in a row in its last matches at home.
👉 In the last 7 road matches, Bayern Munich has not lost any of them.

🤖 What does ChatGPT think about our prediction for Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich?

Lets analyze the matchup between Borussia Dortmund and Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga, which will take place at the iconic Signal Iduna Park, Dortmunds home. 🏟️ This stadium is known for its vibrant atmosphere and is a true cauldron for visitors.

📈 Borussia Dortmund shows a solid home performance, with 4 wins and only 1 loss in their last 5 home games, averaging 2 goals per match and conceding just 1. They also maintain a balanced possession (54%) against opponents. Meanwhile, Bayern Munich impresses away with a high average of goals scored (3 per game) and clear dominance in possession (65%), plus they are unbeaten in recent away matches.

📰 Recent news indicate Dortmund faces goalkeeping challenges after the injury of starting goalkeeper Manuel Neuer, having to improvise with Jonas Urbig. This could impact the teams defensive solidity. On the other hand, Bayern has strengthened their defense by renewing Upamecanos contract and kept Gnabry to boost their attack.

Analyzing the provided median odds: Dortmund win at 4.0, draw at 4.2, and Bayern win at 1.7; the normalized implied probabilities indicate a clear favoritism for Bayern (~55%), followed by a draw (~24%), and Dortmund (~21%). Considering the superior offensive stats of the visitors combined with the defensive instability at home due to the goalkeeper injury, this distribution makes sense.

However, our internal model suggests more favorable odds for Dortmund (3.72) compared to the bookies (4-4.5), indicating potential value in betting on the home team due to the strong local factor — after all, they havent lost at home this season — while slightly undervaluing the draw (very high predicted odds) and confirming Bayern as favorites.

Calculating the expected value of final bets versus our adjusted fair odds: betting on Borussia Dortmund offers a positive EV above 20%, showing a good opportunity; the draw has a significant negative EV; Bayerns win has a slightly negative or neutral EV considering the risks involved.

Conclusion: Despite Bayerns natural favoritism due to superior offensive quality and recent away stability, I believe there is real value in betting on Borussia Dortmunds home strength in this game, especially given the hostile environment at Signal Iduna Park combined with recent defensive struggles of the visitors under intense local pressure 🔥⚽️

Suggested Bet: Borussia Dortmund victory with an estimated expected value of +20%. Its a bold bet but based on statistical data combined with recent injury news in the opponents squad.

Do you want other suggestions of bookmakers to bet on Borussia Dortmund x Bayern Munich?

If you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Borussia Dortmund x Bayern Munich, no problem. Right below you have the sports betting sites that we used the most in 2026. You will be in good hands on any of them, just pick your favorite and start betting:

Analysis from Borussia Dortmund x Bayern Munich for the Germany Bundesliga I – 28 of February

Latest news on Borussia Dortmund x Bayern Munich

Borussia Dortmund: Borussia Dortmund was eliminated from the Champions League in a last-minute drama in Bergamo, ending their European campaign, while domestically they continue to deal with a goalkeeping crisis after Manuel Neuer suffered a recurring muscle fiber injury; the club appointed Jonas Urbig as Neuers immediate replacement and dismissed Marc-André ter Stegen (Nübel) as a long-term option. In the transfer market, Dortmund secured the signing of 17-year-old Brazilian forward Kaua Prates, coming from Cruzeiro, with a contract valid until 2031.

Bayern Munich: Bayern Munich was active in the transfer market, confirming that defender Dayot Upamecano agreed to a new contract that will keep him at the club until 2030, with sporting director Max Eberl saying the deal is “very promising” and close to being announced; forward Serge Gnabry also renewed his stay, signing a contract until June 30, 2028, while young full-back Sacha Boey was loaned to Galatasaray in Turkey for the rest of the season.

Table analysis for the match between Borussia Dortmund and Bayern Munich

Borussia Dortmund: This game is very important for Borussia Dortmund, who is in 2nd place with 52 points, 8 points behind the leader Bayern Munich. A victory can significantly reduce this gap, keeping alive the hope of reaching the top of the table and competing for the title. Additionally, winning a classic against Bayern gives an extra boost and can be crucial for the rest of the championship.

Bayern Munich: For Bayern Munich, the leader with 60 points, this match is also highly relevant. Maintaining the 8-point lead over the second place is essential to extend the gap and take an important step toward the title. Despite the lead, the team needs to avoid surprises and secure the three points to control the race for the top.

Summary: The game is important for both teams as it directly impacts the fight for the Bundesliga title. A Dortmund victory would bring the rivals closer, while Bayern aims to strengthen its leadership.

How the handicap and odds moved for Borussia Dortmund x Bayern Munich

One step many punters overlook is analysing the movement of odds and the handicap over time. Doing this gives a clearer idea of market expectations for the match between Borussia Dortmund x Bayern Munich.

Check the summary below that compares opening odds with current odds across the main markets: 1X2, handicap and goals.

Tips for the 1×2 market for Borussia Dortmund x Bayern Munich

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Borussia Dortmund and Bayern Munich.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1488452 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Is it a good idea to bet on Borussia Dortmund?

🔵 Borussia Dortmund: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 26.81% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 4.00. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 270 times – having a profit of $810.00;
• And would lose other 730 times – losing -$730.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$80.00.

Should you bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 12.93% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 4.25. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 130 times – this would give you a profit of $422.50
• And would lose other 870 times – having a loss of -$870.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$447.50.

Should you bet on Bayern Munich?

🔴 Bayern Munich: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 60.26% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.70. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 600 times – having a profit of $420.00;
• And would have lost other 400 times – with a loss of -$400.00 because of them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$20.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Borussia Dortmund x Bayern Munich

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.5 Borussia Dortmund
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Borussia Dortmund x Bayern Munich

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be +0.5 Borussia Dortmund, and the current handicap offered by bookies is +0.75 Borussia Dortmund.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: +0.75 Borussia Dortmund.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Borussia Dortmund x Bayern Munich

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 3.00 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 3.50 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: – 3.50 goals.

FAQs: Frequently asked questions about the prediction for Borussia Dortmund x Bayern Munich