Borussia Dortmund x Borussia Mgladbach Betting tips for December 19 in Germany Bundesliga I

Our betting tip for Borussia Dortmund x Borussia Mgladbach, Friday, 19/12/2025

📅 19/12/2025 19:30

Borussia Dortmund 1.46

X 4.60

Borussia Mgladbach 6.00

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Borussia Dortmund x Borussia Mgladbach:

👎 Umm…too bad! We did not find any positive expected value bets for Borussia Dortmund x Borussia Mgladbach

Important information for your tip for Borussia Dortmund x Borussia Mgladbach:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Borussia Dortmund in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-153.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Borussia Mgladbach in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $265.0.
👉 Borussia Mgladbach did not concede a goal in the last 3 matches as away team.
👉 In the last 5 matches as the away team, Borussia Mgladbach scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against Borussia Mgladbach, Borussia Dortmund scored at least 3 goal(s).
👉 In the last 5 head-to-head matches between Borussia Dortmund x Borussia Mgladbach, with Borussia Dortmund as the home team, they finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 Playing as the home team, Borussia Dortmund conceded at least 2 goal(s) in all the last 3 head-to-head against Borussia Mgladbach.
👉 Borussia Mgladbach is hard to beat as a visitor: it has 3 wins in a row in its last road matches.
👉 Borussia Dortmund has won all the last 5 matches playing at home against Borussia Mgladbach.

🤖 Critical analysis from ChatGPT on our prediction for Borussia Dortmund vs Borussia Mgladbach:

⚽ The match between Borussia Dortmund and Borussia Mgladbach promises to be electrifying at Signal Iduna Park, an iconic stadium with an atmosphere that greatly favors the home team. Analyzing recent statistics, Dortmund has a solid home performance, scoring an average of 2 goals per game and conceding only 1, along with maintaining a higher ball possession (55%). Meanwhile, Gladbach shows balanced numbers away from home, but with less control of the game (48% possession) and more goals conceded proportionally.

📈 In the league table, although exact data has not been detailed here, we know that the pressure to win is higher for Dortmund due to its traditionally higher position in the Bundesliga. This directly impacts the teams motivation to secure the three points in front of their passionate fans.

📰 News indicates that Borussia Dortmund faces psychological challenges after recent incidents such as red cards and internal criticism about the teams mentality. However, important reinforcements have been recently signed to strengthen the squad. On the other hand, Mgladbach benefits from key returns like Florian Neuhaus and promising young players gaining space in the starting lineup; they still deal with significant injuries that could weigh against them in this tough match.

Analyzing the median odds (1.46 Dortmund win / 4.6 draw / 6 Gladbach win), adjusted by the bookmakers margin, we have approximate normalized implied probabilities: Dortmund ~63%, Draw ~20%, Mgladbach ~17%. Considering recent offensive/defensive statistics of the teams combined with the strong home advantage of Signal Iduna Park — where Dortmund tends to impose its rhythm — these probabilities make sense.

The betting model from Bets Kenya suggests positive value only on Borussia Dortmunds victory (EV +3.7%), while draw (-29.9%) and away win (-12%) show clear negative expected values.

My final analysis: I fully agree with the betting suggestion on Borussia Dortmunds win! Despite internal turbulence reported in the news 📰 , playing in their giant stadium where they maintain a good offensive average 📈 , combined with the less consistent form of the visitors due to injuries, heavily favors them in this match.
Therefore: betting on Borussia Dortmunds victory is safe and offers a positive expected value above 3%, which is my main recommendation for this game! 🎯

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Analysis from Borussia Dortmund x Borussia Mgladbach for the Germany Bundesliga I – 19 of December

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Borussia Dortmund and Borussia Mgladbach.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1454884 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Latest news about Borussia Dortmund x Borussia Mgladbach

Borussia Dortmund: Borussia Dortmund, now led by coach Niko Kovac who recently renewed his contract, has faced offensive inconsistencies highlighted by a 1-1 draw against SC Freiburg on December 14, 2025, when a red card incident involving Jobe Bellingham forced the team to play with one player less, drawing criticism of the teams psychological resilience, while internal unrest has been reported due to concerns about team morale; in the transfer market, the club secured the permanent signing of Carney Chukwuemeka from Chelsea, with a contract until 2030 for about €25 million, and also brought in another young player from Chelsea, Aaron Anselmino, while negotiations with Wolverhampton concluded with a €22.5 million plus bonuses deal for forward Fabio Silva; BVB chose to leave out promising young players Julien Duranville and Cole Campbell for disciplinary reasons; in the Champions League, the team drew 2-2 against FK Bodø/Glimt, with Julian Brandt scoring both goals, amid growing fan frustration over missed chances and a perceived decline in the “winning mentality”.

Borussia Mönchengladbach: Borussia Mönchengladbach has been active on multiple fronts: midfielder Florian Neuhaus is back in the squad and will be available for the next match against Borussia Dortmund, while young winger Wael Mohya made an impressive Bundesliga debut, earning the nickname “Lichtblick” for taking over the role previously held by Marin Pajic, already receiving praise for his confident duels, especially against Sael Kumbedi; the clubs injury list has grown as goalkeeper Kleindienst faces a long recovery after knee arthroscopy, and defender Haris Tabaković harshly criticized after the teams five-match unbeaten streak was broken by a disappointing first-half performance against Wolfsburg; during the winter transfer window, the club added some new players, although the full list of reinforcements is still being finalized, and the coaching staff remains focused on stabilizing the squad while seeking to regain rhythm in the Bundesliga.

Table analysis for the game between Borussia Dortmund and Borussia Mgladbach

Borussia Dortmund: Borussia Dortmund is in 3rd place with 29 points, directly competing for a spot in the Champions League. The team is tied on points with RB Leipzig, which is also fighting for the top 3, and only 9 points behind the leader Bayern Munich, who remains undefeated so far. A win against Borussia Mgladbach is very important to maintain or even improve this position, preventing teams like Bayer Leverkusen from closing the gap in the table. At this moment, every point counts to secure a place in the Bundesligas top tier and keep the chance of fighting for the title alive. ⚽🔥

Borussia Mgladbach: Borussia Mgladbach is in 11th position with 16 points, an intermediate spot without immediate threat of relegation but also far from European competition spots. With a comfortable margin from the relegation zone, the team doesnt seem to have much to lose or gain in this match from a classification perspective. Therefore, the game has relatively low importance for Mgladbach, which should take the opportunity to try to score against a stronger opponent but without direct pressure on the table. 🤷‍♂️

Summary: The match is very relevant for Borussia Dortmund, which fights to maintain its position in the Champions League qualification zone, while Borussia Mgladbach has a less important game, as it is safely in the middle of the table without imminent relegation risk or European qualification chances. Therefore, the confrontation is important for one team, not both.

Tips for the Match Odds market for Borussia Dortmund x Borussia Mgladbach

Should you bet on Borussia Dortmund?

🔵 Borussia Dortmund: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 68.96%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.46. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 690 times – profiting $317.40;
• And would have lost other 310 times – with a loss of -$310.00 because of them.

Although this bet has some value, notice that the expected profit is just 💰$7.40, which is not worth the risk in our point of view.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 13.92%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 4.60. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 140 times – profiting $504.00;
• And would lose other 860 times – having a loss of -$860.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$356.00.

Should you bet on Borussia Mgladbach?

🔴 Borussia Mgladbach: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 17.12%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 6.00. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 170 times – profiting $850.00;
• And would lose other 830 times – having a loss of -$830.00 with them.

Even if it is a positive expected value bet, the expected profit is just 💰$20.00 which is not worth the risk in our opinion.

Handicaps analysis for the match Borussia Dortmund x Borussia Mgladbach

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.75 Borussia Dortmund
⚽ Expected goals: 3.25 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Borussia Dortmund x Borussia Mgladbach

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.75 Borussia Dortmund and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -1.25 Borussia Dortmund.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.50, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 1.25 Borussia Mgladbach.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Borussia Dortmund x Borussia Mgladbach

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 3.25 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 3.00 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 3.00 goals.