Borussia Dortmund x Mainz Betting tips for February 13 in Germany Bundesliga I

Our betting tip for Borussia Dortmund x Mainz, Friday, 13/2/2026

📅 13/2/2026 19:30

Borussia Dortmund 1.49

X 4.40

Mainz 5.60

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Borussia Dortmund x Mainz:

🔮 Tied Match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on a tie, you can win up to $2200.00!

🔮 Mainz wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Mainz, you can win up to $2800.00!

Make this bet on Bet365 now!

Or access: https://www.bet365.com 

The main points for the tip for Borussia Dortmund x Mainz:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Borussia Dortmund in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $48.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Mainz in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $50.0.
👉 In the last 5 matches as the away team, Mainz scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against Mainz, Borussia Dortmund scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 4 Mainz matches as the away team, it finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team, Borussia Dortmund conceded at least 2 goal(s).
👉 In the last 8 matches as the away team, Mainz conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Playing as the home team, Borussia Dortmund conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 5 head-to-head against Mainz.
👉 Borussia Dortmund has not lost any of the last 5 head-to-head matches against Mainz playing at home.

🤖 What does ChatGPT say about our prediction for Borussia Dortmund vs Mainz?

Lets analyze the match between Borussia Dortmund and Mainz at Signal Iduna Park, Borussia Dortmunds home ground, which is the largest stadium in Germany with a capacity of 81,365 fans and known for the electrifying atmosphere of the “Yellow Wall.” This naturally gives Dortmund a home advantage.

Statistically, Borussia Dortmund shows a very strong home performance: scored 11 goals in the last 5 home games, conceded only 6, and won 4 of those. Additionally, in the last 5 Bundesliga matches (regardless of location), they won all 5, averaging nearly 3 goals per game (14 goals) and conceding less than 2 (9). The team also has a clear superiority in shots with an average of 13 per game against 8 from the opponent, plus higher ball possession (55% vs. 45%).

On the other hand, Mainz has a more modest away performance: averaging just over one goal per away game (8 goals in five matches) and conceding the same. In the last five Bundesliga games, they won four and lost once. The low possession away (32%) suggests they will likely play more defensively.

The median odds indicate a clear favoritism to Borussia Dortmund with odds around ~1.49 for the home win, while a draw is around ~4.45, and Mainzs win around ~5.65.

Calculation of normalized fair probabilities:

• Implied probabilities from median odds:
  – Dortmund win = 1/1.49 ≈ 0.671
  – Draw = 1/4.45 ≈ 0.225
  – Mainz win = 1/5.65 ≈ 0.177
• Sum = 0.671 + 0.225 + 0.177 = 1.073 → Normalized:
  – Dortmund = 0.671 / 1.073 ≈ 62%
  – Draw = 21%
  – Mainz = 17%

Given the solid statistical data of Dortmund playing at home in their historic stadium and their recent good form versus Mainz playing defensively away but still achieving decent results, my fair estimate would be close to:

• Dortmund victory: ~62%
• Draw: ~22%
• Mainz victory: ~16%

Analysis of fair odds considering context:

• The fair odds for Dortmunds victory should be close to or slightly below the current (~1.6) given their offensive dominance and strong home advantage;
• The odds for a draw may be underestimated by bookmakers (~4.45), as recent statistics show few draws;
• The odds for Mainzs victory seem overestimated (~5.65), as despite the away difficulty, they have achieved important wins.

Expected value calculation based on final odds:

• Dortmund EV is negative (-30%), indicating an unfavorable bet according to the current model;
• Draw EV is moderately positive (+13%);
• Mainz EV is highly positive (+54%), suggesting high value in the outsider bet according to Bets Kenya.

However, this forecast seems to contradict solid statistics favoring the home team at Signal Iduna Park, where they tend to impose an intense rhythm with high ball possession and offensive volume.

📰 Recent news influencing analysis:
Borussia Dortmund has been regaining important offensive form after individual challenges; top scorer Guirassy scored a decisive goal recently; coach Kovac maintains ambition for the title.
Mainz is in a solid moment fighting relegation; reinforcement Becker brings extra confidence; but the team tends to play defensively away from home.

📈 Table positioning analysis:
Dortmund is pressured by Bayern Munichs leadership, seeking to stay at the top, while Mainz fights to stay in the league, trying to gather important points even as visitors.

Final suggestion Bets Kenya 🏆:
I partially disagree with the Bets Kenya model suggestion indicating high value on the outsider bet at this moment due to strong local conditions favoring Borussia Dortmund.
My recommendation is to bet on Borussia Dortmunds victory with fair odds close to @1.55 – @1.60 considering strong home advantage + good form + positive news.
The estimated expected value in this range would be positive above +10%, making it a safe pick without exaggeration.
I would avoid direct bets on the draw or away team despite the seemingly high values, as they are less probable given recent statistics.

Do you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Borussia Dortmund x Mainz?

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Analysis from Borussia Dortmund x Mainz for the Germany Bundesliga I – 13 of February

The latest news about Borussia Dortmund x Mainz

Borussia Dortmund: Borussia Dortmund, led by coach Niko Kovac, is working to regain their attacking form as Serhou Guirassy and Fabio Silva face individual challenges, but they are expected to find their rhythm in the coming weeks. Salih Özcan earned a call-up to the Champions League after the squad was reduced during the winter transfer window. BVB secured a vital 2-1 victory in the Bundesliga against VfL Wolfsburg on February 7, 2026, thanks to a late goal from Guirassy, bringing them closer to league leaders Bayern and highlighting their renewed effectiveness in set-piece situations.

Mainz 05: Mainz 05, managed by coach Urs Fischer, continued their strong start to 2026 with a 2-0 win over FC Augsburg, with Nadiem Amiri converting two penalties to secure the club’s fourth win of the season and keep their Bundesliga survival hopes alive. The match also marked the highest average age of the team in a Bundesliga game, with veteran Stefan Bell becoming the oldest starting player. Philipp Mwene signed a contract extension, and three squad members were nominated for the Conference League, although the new winter signing Sheraldo Becker – loaned from CA Osasuna with a conditional buy clause – was not eligible for this competition. Becker, who recently demonstrated confidence both in Mainz’s fight against relegation and in his World Cup aspirations for Suriname, was highlighted by Fischer as an “extraordinary” last-minute acquisition that reunited the coach with his former protégé.

Table analysis for the game between Borussia Dortmund and Mainz

Borussia Dortmund: Dortmund is in 2nd place with 48 points, firmly fighting for a direct spot in the Champions League. With a comfortable lead over the 3rd place team (6 points ahead) and a significant points gap to teams below, the match against Mainz is important to keep the pace and secure direct qualification. There are still chances to catch or pressure the leader Bayern Munich, so every point is precious at this moment! ⚽🔥

Mainz: Mainz is currently in 14th position with 21 points, close to the relegation zone, which starts at 16th place with 19 points. The team needs to gather points to move away from relegation threat, especially with few games remaining. Therefore, this match is crucial for Mainz to find some breathing room in the table and avoid pressure in the final rounds. Its time to fight to stay in the Bundesliga! 🛡️⚔️

Summary: This is an important game for both teams: for Borussia Dortmund, to maintain the Champions League spot in the final stretch; for Mainz, to escape relegation zone and try to secure their place in the top division. A match that can make a difference in their respective goals! ⚽

Analysis of odds and handicap movement for Borussia Dortmund x Mainz

Before confirming your prediction, it is worth taking a look at how the odds have moved since the market opened. When the market adjusts the price (even slightly) it is usually because money flowed in, new information emerged or the bookmakers recalibrated their risk.

Below you will find a summary comparing opening odds with current odds in the main markets for Borussia Dortmund x Mainz (1X2, handicap and goals).

Tips for the Match Odds market for Borussia Dortmund x Mainz

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Borussia Dortmund and Mainz.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1479066 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Should you bet on Borussia Dortmund?

🔵 Borussia Dortmund: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 45.89% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.49. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 460 times – having a profit of $225.40;
• And would lose other 540 times – having a loss of -$540.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$314.60.

Is it worth betting on draw?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 26.27%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 4.40. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 260 times – this would give you a profit of $884.00
• And would lose other 740 times – having a loss of -$740.00 with them.

So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$144.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on Mainz?

🔴 Mainz: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 27.84%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 5.60. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 280 times – profiting $1288.00;
• And would lose other 720 times – losing -$720.00 with them.

That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$568.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Borussia Dortmund x Mainz

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.75 Borussia Dortmund
⚽ Expected goals: 3.25 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Borussia Dortmund x Mainz

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.75 Borussia Dortmund, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -1.25 Borussia Dortmund.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.50, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 1.25 Mainz.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Borussia Dortmund x Mainz

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 3.25 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 3.00 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 3.00 goals.

FAQs: Common questions about the tip for Borussia Dortmund x Mainz