Borussia Mgladbach x Holstein Kiel Betting tips for December 14 in Germany Bundesliga I

Our betting tip for Borussia Mgladbach x Holstein Kiel, Saturday, 14/12/2024

📅 14/12/2024 14:30

Borussia Mgladbach 1.50

X 4.50

Holstein Kiel 5.50

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Borussia Mgladbach x Holstein Kiel:

👎 Unfortunately, we do not have any positive expected value tips for Borussia Mgladbach x Holstein Kiel

The main points for the tip for Borussia Mgladbach x Holstein Kiel: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Borussia Mgladbach in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $220.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Holstein Kiel in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500. 👉 In the last 7 matches as the home team, Borussia Mgladbach scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 8 Holstein Kiel matches as the away team, it finished over 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 8 matches as the away team, Holstein Kiel conceded at least 2 goal(s). 👉 It is not a good time for Holstein Kiel as away team: it comes from 4 losses in a row in its last away matches.

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Analysis from Borussia Mgladbach x Holstein Kiel for the Germany Bundesliga I – 14 of December

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Borussia Mgladbach and Holstein Kiel.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1236358 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Borussia Mgladbach x Holstein Kiel

Should you bet on Borussia Mgladbach?

🔵 Borussia Mgladbach: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 72.28% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.50. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 720 times – this would give you a profit of $360.00
• And would lose other 280 times – having a loss of -$280.00 with them.

Although this bet has some value, notice that the expected profit is just 💰$80.00, which is not worth the risk in our point of view.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 19.77% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 4.50. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 200 times – this would give you a profit of $700.00
• And would lose other 800 times – losing -$800.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$100.00.

Should you bet on Holstein Kiel?

🔴 Holstein Kiel: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 7.95%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 5.50. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 80 times – this would give you a profit of $360.00
• And would have lost other 920 times – with a loss of -$920.00 because of them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$560.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Borussia Mgladbach x Holstein Kiel

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.0 Borussia Mgladbach
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Borussia Mgladbach x Holstein Kiel

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -1.0 Borussia Mgladbach, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -1.0 Borussia Mgladbach.

The handicap that our algorithm found is the same as the bookies, which means that there is not any value to bet on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Borussia Mgladbach x Holstein Kiel

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.50 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 3.00 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.50, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: – 3.00 goals.