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Home ยป Predictions ยป Bundesliga 1 ยป Cologne x Bayern Munich Betting tips for November 24 in Germany Bundesliga I
Friday, 24 November 2023, 00h00 Germany Bundesliga I
Cologne Cologne
PREDICTION Bayern Munich Wins Probability 96% 1 X 2
Bayern Munich Bayern Munich
ODD: @1.28 Don't miss this prediction! BET NOW Don't miss this prediction!

Cologne x Bayern Munich Betting tips for November 24 in Germany Bundesliga I

Our betting tip for Cologne x Bayern Munich, Friday, 24/11/2023
๐Ÿ“… 24/11/2023
19:30
Cologne Cologne
9.20
X
6.41
Bayern Munich Bayern Munich
1.28

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Cologne x Bayern Munich:

๐Ÿ”ฎ Bayern Munich wins the match
๐Ÿ’ฐ When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Bayern Munich, you can win up to $640.00!

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Important information for your tip for Cologne x Bayern Munich:

๐Ÿ‘‰ If you had bet $100 on Cologne in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-260.0.
๐Ÿ‘‰ If you had bet $100 on Bayern Munich in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $75.0.
๐Ÿ‘‰ In the last 8 matches as the away team, Bayern Munich scored at least 1 goal(s).
๐Ÿ‘‰ In the last 8 Bayern Munich matches as the away team, it finished over 2.5 goals.
๐Ÿ‘‰ In the last 5 head-to-head matches between Cologne x Bayern Munich, with Cologne as the home team, they finished over 2.5 goals.
๐Ÿ‘‰ In the last 5 matches as the home team, Cologne conceded at least 1 goal(s).
๐Ÿ‘‰ Playing as the home team, Cologne conceded at least 2 goal(s) in all the last 5 head-to-head against Bayern Munich.

๐Ÿ“Š You can also check out the full analysis on Betfellows: Prognostic for Cologne x Bayern Munich

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Summary

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Analysis from Cologne x Bayern Munich for the Germany Bundesliga I – 24 of November

๐ŸŸ๏ธ Cologne X Bayern Munich – Germany Bundesliga I
๐Ÿ“… 24 of November, 2023 – 19:30
๐Ÿ”ต Cologne – Winning probability: 1.01% | Fair line: 99.11
โšช Tied game – Probability of tied match: 2.01% | Fair line: 49.84
๐Ÿ”ด Bayern Munich – Winning probability: 96.98% | Fair line: 1.03
โš– Handicap 1×2: +1.5 Cologne
โšฝ Expected goals: 3.50 goals
โ›ณ Expected corner kicks: 10.25 corner kicks

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Cologne x Bayern Munich right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1024961 matches on the database from our soccer prognostics platform, Betfellows, looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Cologne x Bayern Munich

Is betting on Cologne worth it?

๐Ÿ”ต Cologne: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 1.01% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 9.20. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

  • Would have hit 10 times – having a profit of $82.00;
  • And would lose other 990 times – having a loss of -$990.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of ๐Ÿ’ฐ-$908.00.

Is betting on draw worth it?

โšช draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 2.01% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 6.41. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 20 times – this would give you a profit of $108.20
  • And would have lost other 980 times – with a loss of -$980.00 because of them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of ๐Ÿ’ฐ-$871.80.

Should you bet on Bayern Munich?

๐Ÿ”ด Bayern Munich: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 96.98%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.28. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

  • Would hit 970 times – this would give you a profit of $271.60
  • And would lose other 30 times – losing -$30.00 with them.

It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of ๐Ÿ’ฐ$241.60.

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Handicaps analysis for the match Cologne x Bayern Munich

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on soccer betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

โš– Handicap 1×2: +1.5 Cologne
โšฝ Expected goals: 3.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Cologne x Bayern Munich

โš– Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is +1.5 Cologne and the available handicap to bet at the moment is +1.75 Cologne.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: +1.75 Cologne.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Cologne x Bayern Munich

โšฝ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.50 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 3.75 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: – 3.75 goals.

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Written by

Autor
Humberto Alves

Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.

> Check other content created by Humberto Alves