Hamburg x RB Leipzig Betting tips for March 1 in Germany Bundesliga I

Our betting tip for Hamburg x RB Leipzig, Sunday, 1/3/2026

📅 1/3/2026 18:30

Hamburg 3.17

X 3.60

RB Leipzig 2.10

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Hamburg x RB Leipzig:

👎 Unfortunately, we did not find any positive expected value bets for Hamburg x RB Leipzig

The main points for the tip for Hamburg x RB Leipzig:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Hamburg in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-25.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on RB Leipzig in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-144.0.
👉 In the last 3 matches as the away team, RB Leipzig conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Playing as the home team, Hamburg conceded at least 2 goal(s) in all the last 3 head-to-head against RB Leipzig.
👉 Even as a visitor, RB Leipzig won the last 3 head-to-head matches Hamburg´s territory

🤖 ChatGPT’s take on our prediction for Hamburg vs RB Leipzig:

Lets analyze the match between Hamburg and RB Leipzig in the Bundesliga, which will take place at Volksparkstadion, Hamburgs home ground. 🏟️

📈 Hamburg has shown solid performance at home, with 2 wins and no losses in the last 5 games at their stadium, averaging 1.8 goals per game and conceding about 1.4 goals. Meanwhile, RB Leipzig has a less effective away attack (average of 1 goal per game) and a defense that also concedes around 1 goal per match away from their stadium.

The median odds model indicates approximate normalized implied probabilities: Hamburg win ~31%, draw ~27%, Leipzig win ~42%. Considering recent stats, the higher possession (62%) and ball control by Leipzig suggest a tactical advantage for them, but Hamburgs strong offensive record at home balances the contest.

Adjusting fair odds based on statistics and news — such as the renewal of young goalkeeper Colin Poppelbaum for Hamburg, which could bring more defensive security — we estimate fair odds close to: Hamburg win around 3.0 (33%), draw near 3.4 (29%), and Leipzig win close to 2.3 (43%).

News reports show RB Leipzig has been struggling to maintain their league position after losing important points recently due to vulnerability in the final minutes of matches; this could affect their confidence away against a motivated opponent fighting relegation like HSV.

Analyzing the expected betting values based on available final odds: betting on the away win offers a positive expected value (~6%), while other options have negative or very low EV.

My recommendation: I agree with the Bets Kenya club model by indicating value in betting on RB Leipzig away, as despite their strong home form, the visitors have better positional control and superior offensive capacity overall — decisive factors to aim for the three points! ⚽🔥

Final tip: Pay attention to the initial phase of the match; if we notice intense high pressing from the home team trying to exploit recent defensive lapses of the visitors in the final minutes of previous games, it might be worth considering live bets as well!

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Analysis from Hamburg x RB Leipzig for the Germany Bundesliga I – 1 of March

The latest news about Hamburg x RB Leipzig

Hamburger SV: Hamburger SV has just renewed the contract of their 19-year-old U-21 goalkeeper, Colin Poppelbaum, as the Regionalliga Nord prepares to restart. Recently, the club played a city derby against FC St. Pauli, also from Hamburg, which ended in a goalless draw, leaving both teams still fighting to avoid relegation.

RB Leipzig: RB Leipzig lost two points after conceding a late goal that allowed Essen to secure a draw, highlighting a persistent vulnerability in the final moments of matches. Meanwhile, the clubs transfer activity remains focused on strengthening the squad for the summer window, with the announced signing of a left-back from New York Red Bulls and the strategic loan of the promising 19-year-old Belgian winger, Joyeux Masanka Bungi, to New York, aiming to accelerate his development as the team continues to improve its league position compared to last season despite ongoing financial pressures.

Table analysis for the match between Hamburg and RB Leipzig

Hamburg: Hamburg is in an intermediate position in the table, in 11th place, with 26 points. For them, this match is a good opportunity to earn more points and try to climb the standings, but it is not a decisive game for fighting for the title or avoiding relegation. It is an important confrontation to continue improving in the table, but without much pressure. ⚽🙂

RB Leipzig: RB Leipzig is in 5th place with 41 points, seeking to secure a spot in the UEFA Europa League. This match is quite important for them, as a victory helps to consolidate or even improve their position in the race for international competitions. It is a game with more weight for the visitors, who want to stay firm in the fight for the European spot. 🔥🏆

Summary: The game is important for RB Leipzig, which is fighting for international spots, while for Hamburg it represents a chance to improve in the table without much pressure. So, this match carries more weight for Leipzig, but remains relevant for both teams.

Odds and handicap movements for Hamburg x RB Leipzig

It is always useful to analyse how the odds and the handicap behaved over time. This helps us understand where the betting market is heading and what punters expect for the match between Hamburg x RB Leipzig.

Below you will see a summary that compares the opening odds with the current odds in the main markets: 1X2, handicap and goals.

Tips for the 1×2 market for Hamburg x RB Leipzig

When the best bet on Hamburg x RB Leipzig is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1488452 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Is betting on Hamburg worth it?

🔵 Hamburg: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 30.07% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.17. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 300 times – profiting $651.00;
• And would have lost other 700 times – with a loss of -$700.00 because of them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$49.00.

Should you bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 21.44% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.60. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 210 times – having a profit of $546.00;
• And would lose other 790 times – losing -$790.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$244.00.

Is it worth betting on RB Leipzig?

🔴 RB Leipzig: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 48.49%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.10. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 480 times – profiting $528.00;
• And would lose other 520 times – having a loss of -$520.00 with them.

Even if it is a positive expected value bet, the expected profit is just 💰$8.00 which is not worth the risk in our opinion.

Handicaps analysis for the match Hamburg x RB Leipzig

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.5 Hamburg
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Hamburg x RB Leipzig

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be +0.5 Hamburg, and the current handicap offered by bookies is +0.25 Hamburg.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.25 RB Leipzig.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Hamburg x RB Leipzig

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.50 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.75 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: – 2.75 goals.

FAQs: Common questions about the tip for Hamburg x RB Leipzig