RB Leipzig x Borussia Dortmund Betting tips for February 21 in Germany Bundesliga I
| 📅 21/2/2026 17:30 |
 RB Leipzig2.21 |
X 3.75 |
Borussia Dortmund  2.84 |
Our algorithm has selected this tip for RB Leipzig x Borussia Dortmund:
🔮 RB Leipzig wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on RB Leipzig, you can win up to $1105.00!
Important information for your tip for RB Leipzig x Borussia Dortmund:
👉 If you had bet $100 on RB Leipzig in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-325.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Borussia Dortmund in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-100.0.
👉 In the last 8 matches as the home team, RB Leipzig scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against Borussia Dortmund, RB Leipzig scored at least 2 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 RB Leipzig matches as the home team, it finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team, RB Leipzig conceded at least 2 goal(s).
👉 RB Leipzig has won all the last 5 matches playing at home against Borussia Dortmund.
🤖 Critical insight from ChatGPT on the prediction for RB Leipzig vs Borussia Dortmund:
Lets analyze the match between RB Leipzig and Borussia Dortmund at the Red Bull Arena, Leipzigs home ground, which is a modern stadium with strong support from the local fans. 🏟️
📈 RB Leipzig is in a solid position in the Bundesliga table, fighting to secure a Champions League spot. Despite mixed recent results (1 win, 3 losses, and 1 draw at home), they average 1 goal scored at home per game and concede about 2 goals per match. Borussia Dortmund, on the other hand, is on an unbeaten streak (5 wins in recent league games), scoring an average of 2 goals away and only conceding 1 goal per game away from their stadium.
The median odds indicate a slight favoritism for RB Leipzig (2.21) against Dortmund (2.84), with a draw at 3.75. Converting these odds into normalized implied probabilities gives approximately: Leipzig win ~44%, draw ~26%, Dortmund win ~30%. Considering Dortmunds stronger offensive stats away and Leipzigs more vulnerable defense at home, I would slightly adjust the probabilities to favor the visitor more.
My fair estimate would be: RB Leipzig win ~40%, draw ~25%, Borussia Dortmund win ~35%. This suggests fair odds close to: RBL @2.50, Draw @4.00, BVB @2.85.
Analyzing the expected value of the final odds offered by bookmakers compared to my fair estimates: betting on Borussia Dortmund offers a positive expected value close to +7% due to their good offensive form combined with recent defensive weaknesses at the home team; bets on RB Leipzig or a draw do not present relevant expected value.
📰 Recent news highlights that RB Leipzig aims to close the gap to the leaders after being eliminated from the national cup by Bayern; meanwhile, Borussia Dortmund is motivated by their recent good European campaign despite some defensive concerns — reinforcements are arriving to try to fix this before this important match.
Final analysis: I partially agree with the Bets Kenya model indicating a higher chance for the visitor (Dortmund), but I believe it underestimates this possibility even more given the current form of the teams and recent tactical/market context.
My recommended bet is on Borussia Dortmunds victory, as it has a positive expected value above 5% (+7%), making it an interesting opportunity especially considering the reinforcements arriving to improve their defense.
I would avoid bets on a draw or home win at this moment.
Good luck! ⚽💰
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Analysis from RB Leipzig x Borussia Dortmund for the Germany Bundesliga I – 21 of February
🏟️ RB Leipzig X Borussia Dortmund – Germany Bundesliga I
📅 21 of February, 2026 – 17:30
🔵 RB Leipzig – Winning probability: 49.05% | Fair line: 2.04
⚪ Tied game – Probability of tied match: 24.11% | Fair line: 4.15
🔴 Borussia Dortmund – Winning probability: 26.85% | Fair line: 3.73
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 RB Leipzig
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 9.75 corner kicks
Latest news on RB Leipzig x Borussia Dortmund
RB Leipzig: RB Leipzig is in fifth place in the Bundesliga and is actively fighting for a Champions League spot, a goal repeatedly emphasized by club president Oliver Mintzlaff despite rising expectations after a mixed run of results; the team recently managed a 2-2 draw against Wolfsburg, which left them short of maximum points, followed by a convincing home victory over 1. FC Nürnberg, but their cup campaign was halted by a 2-0 defeat to Bayern Munich in the DFB-Pokal quarter-finals, highlighting the narrow margins the club faces as they strive to close the gap to the league leaders.
Borussia Dortmund: Borussia Dortmund was in the spotlight this February, first securing a dominant 3-0 victory over Atalanta Bergamo in the Champions League before entering their last group stage match against Inter Milan, while a recent defeat to Tottenham Hotspur revealed defensive weaknesses that coach Edin Terzić must address before the clash with the Italians; in the transfer market, the club is close to completing the signing of Brazilian left-back Kaua Prates from Cruzeiro for 12 million euros after a medical exam, decided to keep the loaned player Aaron Anselmino despite Chelseas attempt to end the loan early, and is monitoring Dutch midfielder Ramon Hendriks as a potential reinforcement. Additionally, 18-year-old Luca Reggiani made his Champions League debut against Atalanta, while forward Serhou Guirassy scored the opening goal in that match, and the team is also awaiting a final decision on the availability of defender Nico Schlotterbeck for upcoming matches.
Germany Bundesliga I table analysis for RB Leipzig x Borussia Dortmund
RB Leipzig: RB Leipzig is currently in 5th place with 40 points, aiming for a spot in the UEFA Europa League. With only a 2-point lead over Bayer Leverkusen in 6th place (which can still close the gap), the match against Borussia Dortmund is crucial for Leipzig to maintain its position and secure qualification for European competitions. A victory will help the team consolidate its position and increase pressure on competitors. Therefore, this game is very important for RB Leipzig at this stage of the season.
Borussia Dortmund: Borussia Dortmund is in 2nd place with 51 points, firmly within the Champions League qualification zone, 6 points ahead of the 3rd place team. Despite Bayern Munichs comfortable lead, Dortmund wants to catch up to the top and avoid any closing gap from Hoffenheim in 3rd place. This match against a direct G5 contender is decisive to maintain the advantage and continue fighting for second place and direct qualification to the Champions League. So, the game is also crucial for Borussia Dortmund.
Summary: This matchup is very important for both teams. Borussia Dortmund aims to keep its strong position in the Champions League zone, while RB Leipzig fights to secure a spot in European competitions. An intense game with high motivation for both sides! ⚽🔥
How the handicap and odds moved for RB Leipzig x Borussia Dortmund
One step many punters overlook is analysing the movement of odds and the handicap over time. Doing this gives a clearer idea of market expectations for the match between RB Leipzig x Borussia Dortmund.
Check the summary below that compares opening odds with current odds across the main markets: 1X2, handicap and goals.
📊 The odds for RB Leipzig had a great Decreased of -15.69%: the market opened with odds of @2.55 for RB Leipzig and now the odds are @2.15.
📊 With a variation of 1.33%, the odds for Draw are virtually stable in relation to its opening: the market opened with odds of @3.75 for Draw and now the odds are @3.8.
📊 The odds for Borussia Dortmund had a huge Raised of 21.57%: the market opened with odds of @2.55 for Borussia Dortmund and now the odds are @3.1.
📊 The market increased home team´s favoritism: the handicap that opened at 0.00 is now at -0.25 for RB Leipzig.
📊 The Goal Market remains stable: the current handicap of 3.25 goals is exactly the same from its opening.
Tips for the 1×2 market for RB Leipzig x Borussia Dortmund
When the best bet on RB Leipzig x Borussia Dortmund is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.
Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1483644 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:
Is it worth betting on RB Leipzig?
🔵 RB Leipzig: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 49.05% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.21. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would have hit 490 times – having a profit of $592.90;
- And would lose other 510 times – losing -$510.00 with them.
Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$82.90.
Is it a good idea to bet on draw?
⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 24.11% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.75. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would have hit 240 times – having a profit of $660.00;
- And would have lost other 760 times – with a loss of -$760.00 because of them.
So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$100.00.
Should you bet on Borussia Dortmund?
🔴 Borussia Dortmund: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 26.85%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.84. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 270 times – this would give you a profit of $496.80
- And would have lost other 730 times – with a loss of -$730.00 because of them.
That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$233.20.
Handicaps analysis for the match RB Leipzig x Borussia Dortmund
Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..
These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 RB Leipzig
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for RB Leipzig x Borussia Dortmund
⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.25 RB Leipzig, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 0.0 RB Leipzig.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.0 RB Leipzig.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for RB Leipzig x Borussia Dortmund
⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 3.25 goals.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: – 3.25 goals.
FAQs: Common questions about the tip for RB Leipzig x Borussia Dortmund
Who is the favourite: RB Leipzig or Borussia Dortmund?
From our analysis, the team that comes out as favourite is RB Leipzig, with a win probability of 49.05%. Still, favourite does not guarantee a win!
Who will win: RB Leipzig x Borussia Dortmund?
There are no absolutes in sports betting. Still, our model suggests RB Leipzig has the better chance to win, with a probability of 49.05%. If you choose to back RB Leipzig, do so responsibly!
What are the chances of RB Leipzig beating Borussia Dortmund today?
Based on our calculations, in every 100 matches we estimate RB Leipzig would win about 49 of those against Borussia Dortmund.
What are the chances of Borussia Dortmund beating RB Leipzig today?
According to our analysis, out of every 100 games we expect Borussia Dortmund to win approximately 27 of them against RB Leipzig.
Which team should I bet on: RB Leipzig or Borussia Dortmund?
A good bettor always searches for positive expected value bets. Our analysis suggests: RB Leipzig wins as the best pick, with EV of 5.39%. Bet responsibly and practice sound bankroll management: keep stakes under 2% of your capital!
How much is RB Leipzig paying today? See what you can win by betting on RB Leipzig x Borussia Dortmund:
The odds for RB Leipzig to beat Borussia Dortmund today are around 2.21. That means a bet of KSh1000 could return KSh2210.00 if RB Leipzig wins. Remember betting involves risk and returns are not guaranteed. Bet responsibly!
How much is Borussia Dortmund paying today? See what you can win by betting on RB Leipzig x Borussia Dortmund:
The average odds for Borussia Dortmund to beat RB Leipzig today are 2.84. So a KSh1000 stake could pay KSh2840.00 if Borussia Dortmund wins. Bet responsibly and remember outcomes are not certain.
