SC Freiburg x Borussia Dortmund Betting tips for December 14 in Germany Bundesliga I
| 📅 14/12/2025 14:30 |
 SC Freiburg3.35 |
X 3.45 |
Borussia Dortmund  2.07 |
Our algorithm has selected this tip for SC Freiburg x Borussia Dortmund:
🔮 SC Freiburg wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on SC Freiburg, you can win up to $1675.00!
Important information for your tip for SC Freiburg x Borussia Dortmund:
👉 If you had bet $100 on SC Freiburg in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $310.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Borussia Dortmund in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-83.0.
👉 SC Freiburg did not concede a goal in the last 3 matches as home team.
👉 In the last 6 matches as the home team, SC Freiburg scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 7 matches as the away team, Borussia Dortmund scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against Borussia Dortmund, SC Freiburg scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 5 head-to-head matches between SC Freiburg x Borussia Dortmund, with SC Freiburg as the home team, they finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 SC Freiburg caused at least one sending-off in its last 3 matches as the home team.
👉 In the last 3 matches as the away team, Borussia Dortmund conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Playing as the home team, SC Freiburg conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 5 head-to-head against Borussia Dortmund.
👉 SC Freiburg is good playing home: it has 5 wins in a row in its last matches at home.
👉 Even as a visitor, Borussia Dortmund won the last 3 head-to-head matches SC Freiburg´s territory
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Analysis from SC Freiburg x Borussia Dortmund for the Germany Bundesliga I – 14 of December
🏟️ SC Freiburg X Borussia Dortmund – Germany Bundesliga I
📅 14 of December, 2025 – 14:30
🔵 SC Freiburg – Winning probability: 33.33% | Fair line: 3.0
⚪ Tied game – Probability of tied match: 21.30% | Fair line: 4.7
🔴 Borussia Dortmund – Winning probability: 45.37% | Fair line: 2.2
⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 SC Freiburg
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 9.75 corner kicks
When the best bet on SC Freiburg x Borussia Dortmund is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.
Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1452043 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:
Latest news on the match between SC Freiburg and Borussia Dortmund
SC Freiburg: On December 11, 2025, SC Freiburg entered the Europa League matchday in good form, defeating RB Salzburg 1-0 to stay among the top eight teams in the competition, despite coach Thomas Letsch not participating due to illness, with assistant Kai Hesse taking charge; Julian Schuster, the club manager, highlighted the squads depth and confirmed that defender Max Rosenfelder is out for the rest of the season and that Philipp Lienharts availability is doubtful after a muscle strain, with other absences including Lucas Gourna-Douath, Takumu Kawamura, Maurits Kjaergaard, and John Mellberg; after a recent 1-2 defeat in the Bundesliga to Heidenheim, Schuster reshuffled the lineup, benching captain Günter Kübler, promoting Suzuki and Adamu to the starting eleven, and adjusting the defensive sector, as the team seeks to convert its good European performance into consistent points in the national league.
Borussia Dortmund: Now coached by Niko Kovac, Borussia Dortmund drew 2-2 at home against FK Bodø/Glimt in the Champions League on December 10, 2025, a result that intensified criticism of the teams finishing and showed a visible drop in intensity in the final moments; defender Nico Schlotterbeck publicly expressed his frustration in a post-match interview, while the squad also dealt with the departure of several players early in the season and the need to reinforce defensive cohesion. Additionally, the club secured an extension of goalkeeper Alexander Meyers contract, adding another year to keep him at BVB until June 30, 2027, and the team now focuses on fixing tactical flaws highlighted by the recent draw as they prepare for upcoming Champions League matches and the final stretch of the Bundesliga.
Tips for the Match Odds market for SC Freiburg x Borussia Dortmund
Is it worth betting on SC Freiburg?
🔵 SC Freiburg: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 33.33%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.35. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 330 times – this would give you a profit of $775.50
- And would have lost other 670 times – with a loss of -$670.00 because of them.
It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$105.50.
Is it a good idea to bet on draw?
⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 21.3%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.45. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 210 times – this would give you a profit of $514.50
- And would lose other 790 times – having a loss of -$790.00 with them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$275.50.
Is betting on Borussia Dortmund worth it?
🔴 Borussia Dortmund: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 45.37% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.07. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 450 times – this would give you a profit of $481.50
- And would lose other 550 times – losing -$550.00 with them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$68.50.
Handicaps analysis for the match SC Freiburg x Borussia Dortmund
Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.
This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 SC Freiburg
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for SC Freiburg x Borussia Dortmund
⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 0.0 SC Freiburg and the available handicap to bet at the moment is +0.5 SC Freiburg.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: +0.5 SC Freiburg.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for SC Freiburg x Borussia Dortmund
⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.50 goals.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.
