SC Freiburg x Borussia Mgladbach Betting tips for February 22 in Germany Bundesliga I

Our betting tip for SC Freiburg x Borussia Mgladbach, Sunday, 22/2/2026

📅 22/2/2026 14:30

SC Freiburg 2.05

X 3.30

Borussia Mgladbach 3.70

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for SC Freiburg x Borussia Mgladbach:

🔮 SC Freiburg wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on SC Freiburg, you can win up to $1025.00!

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Or access: https://www.bet365.com 

Important information for your tip for SC Freiburg x Borussia Mgladbach:

👉 If you had bet $100 on SC Freiburg in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $198.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Borussia Mgladbach in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500.
👉 In the last 7 matches as the home team, SC Freiburg scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 SC Freiburg is good playing home: it has 4 wins in a row in its last matches at home.
👉 SC Freiburg has not lost any of the last 5 head-to-head matches against Borussia Mgladbach playing at home.

🤖 Critical insight from ChatGPT on the prediction for SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mgladbach:

Lets analyze the match between SC Freiburg and Borussia Mgladbach that will take place at Europa-Park-Stadion, Freiburgs home ground. The stadium is modern and provides a favorable environment for the home team, which has shown strength playing on its turf.

📈 Table analysis: SC Freiburg is in second place in the Bundesliga, showing a solid and consistent campaign. Borussia Mgladbach is facing recent difficulties, with a drop in performance and evident offensive problems. This difference in ranking directly reflects the teams motivation: Freiburg aims to maintain second place, while Gladbach fights to get out of the bad phase.

SC Freiburg has good defensive numbers at home (3 goals conceded in the last 5 games) and maintains an average of 1 goal per game at the stadium offensively. Additionally, they have high ball possession (51%) compared to 42% for the visiting team, which concedes many goals (average of 2 goals conceded per away game). The visiting team has not won any of the last five away games and scored only 2 goals during this period.

Based on the median odds provided (2.05 for home win; 3.3 for draw; 3.66 for away win), the normalized implied probabilities are approximately: home win ~48%, draw ~30%, away win ~22%. Considering Freiburgs solid defensive stats at home, their recent good form, and Gladbachs offensive issues away, my adjusted estimate would be something like: Freiburg win with a probability between 50-55%, a draw around 25-30%, and Gladbach win below 20%.

📈 The fair odds calculated considering these factors indicate a higher value for betting on the home team due to tactical superiority, better team form, and clear home advantage.

📰 News: SC Freiburg faces important defensive absences but benefits from the recent return of key players like Cyriaque Irié, who can further strengthen their reorganized defensive line under coach Christian Streich. On the other hand, Borussia Mönchengladbach is under internal pressure after a recent coaching change with no significant offensive improvement — even with the partial positive return of Daniel Hack to training — reinforcing the expected difficulty in scoring goals in this match away from their home ground.

Analyzing the Bets Kenya model: it suggests positive value only for the away win (+15.8% EV), but this strongly contradicts recent statistical data of the teams both in technical and positional terms, besides unfavorable news for Gladbach playing away against a strong opponent in their usual stadium.
I disagree with this suggestion as I see low real potential for an away victory given the current scenario.
My recommendation is to bet on Freiburgs victory or even consider a double chance favoring the home team if you want to reduce risk — this bet would have a positive expected value above +5% easily considering the final odds (1.95).

Final summary:
SC Freiburg arrives strong playing at their Europa-Park-Stadion 🏟️ where they maintain excellent defensive performance; Borussia Mgladbach suffers heavily offensively in recent away matches; news confirms important absences but also punctual reinforcements for the home team while visitors are going through a turbulent technical phase;
Current odds slightly favor the home team;
My analysis indicates clear value betting on the home victory 🔥💰

Looking for more options of bookmakers for your bet on SC Freiburg x Borussia Mgladbach?

If you want other options of bookmakers to bet on SC Freiburg x Borussia Mgladbach, no problem. Right below you have the sports betting sites that we used the most in 2026. You will be in good hands on any of them, just pick your favorite and start betting:

Analysis from SC Freiburg x Borussia Mgladbach for the Germany Bundesliga I – 22 of February

Latest news about SC Freiburg x Borussia Mgladbach

SC Freiburg: SC Freiburg is currently in second place in the Bundesliga, behind Bayern Munich, and is facing defensive issues as their defensive duo remains out of training until February 18, 2026. Coach Christian Streich had to reorganize the defense after several absences; the teams recent focus was the upcoming home match against Union Berlin on February 14, 2026, where Freiburg hoped to capitalize on late chances after a strong first-half performance. The team also celebrated Cyriaque Iriés return, who recovered from a six-month injury and rejoined the squad, while in the leagues recent action, Ermedin Demirovic of VfB Stuttgart broke his personal “Freiburg curse” by scoring a decisive goal against his former club.

Borussia Mönchengladbach: Borussia Mönchengladbach is experiencing a persistent decline in the Bundesliga, with the impact of the recent coaching change diminishing and the offensive sector remaining ineffective; coach Eugen Polanski is under pressure to introduce new ideas, while a positive sign emerged with striker Daniel Hack returning to training after a long absence. Young midfielder Reggiani received praise from coach Kehl for his calm performance, a potential transfer involving Kaua Prates is close to completion, and a post-match dispute led Palladino to explain a cold handshake with Kovac.

Table analysis for the match between SC Freiburg and Borussia Mgladbach

SC Freiburg: SC Freiburg is currently in 8th place with 30 points, in a comfortable position on the table. Being outside the qualification zone for European competitions or relegation makes the game of moderate importance. However, with only 8 points difference to the Conference League zone (6th place), there is still some incentive to seek a victory and dream of a spot in international competitions, even if it is not decisive at this stage of the season.

Borussia Mgladbach: Borussia Mgladbach is in 13th place with 22 points, well below the European qualification zones and close to the relegation area, which starts at 16th place with 19 points. The team is in a risky situation and needs to earn points to move away from the relegation zone, making this game extremely important to try to secure Bundesliga permanence and avoid direct relegation or playoff disputes.

Summary: The game is especially important for Borussia Mgladbach, which is fighting to escape relegation. For SC Freiburg, the match has less importance but can still influence the quest for a spot in European competitions. Therefore, the duel is crucial for one team and relevant for the other.

Odds and handicap movements for SC Freiburg x Borussia Mgladbach

We will also look at how the odds and handicap have evolved over time. This approach helps capture the market sentiment for the fixture between SC Freiburg x Borussia Mgladbach.

Below you will find a summary comparing opening odds with current odds in the principal markets: 1X2, handicap and goals.

Tips for the 1×2 market for SC Freiburg x Borussia Mgladbach

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for SC Freiburg x Borussia Mgladbach right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1483644 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Should you bet on SC Freiburg?

🔵 SC Freiburg: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 54.47% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.05. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 540 times – this would give you a profit of $567.00
• And would lose other 460 times – losing -$460.00 with them.

That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$107.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 24.23%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.30. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 240 times – this would give you a profit of $552.00
• And would lose other 760 times – having a loss of -$760.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$208.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on Borussia Mgladbach?

🔴 Borussia Mgladbach: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 21.29% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.70. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 210 times – profiting $567.00;
• And would lose other 790 times – losing -$790.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$223.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match SC Freiburg x Borussia Mgladbach

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.75 SC Freiburg
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for SC Freiburg x Borussia Mgladbach

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.75 SC Freiburg, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.5 SC Freiburg.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.5 SC Freiburg.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for SC Freiburg x Borussia Mgladbach

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.50 goals.

The handicap that our algorithm found is the same as the bookies, which means that there is not any value to bet on the Goals Handicap market.

FAQs: Frequently asked questions about the prediction for SC Freiburg x Borussia Mgladbach