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Home ยป Predictions ยป Bundesliga 1 ยป SC Freiburg x Darmstadt Betting tips for November 25 in Germany Bundesliga I
Saturday, 25 November 2023, 00h00 Germany Bundesliga I
SC Freiburg SC Freiburg
PREDICTION SC Freiburg wins Probability 6% 1 X 2
Darmstadt Darmstadt
ODD: @1.55 Don't miss this prediction! BET NOW Don't miss this prediction!

SC Freiburg x Darmstadt Betting tips for November 25 in Germany Bundesliga I

Our betting tip for SC Freiburg x Darmstadt, Saturday, 25/11/2023
๐Ÿ“… 25/11/2023
14:30
SC Freiburg SC Freiburg
1.55
X
4.20
Darmstadt Darmstadt
5.50

Our algorithm has selected this tip for SC Freiburg x Darmstadt:

๐Ÿ”ฎ SC Freiburg wins the match
๐Ÿ’ฐ When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on SC Freiburg, you can win up to $775.00!

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Some important points for the tip for SC Freiburg x Darmstadt:

๐Ÿ‘‰ If you had bet $100 on SC Freiburg in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-207.0.
๐Ÿ‘‰ If you had bet $100 on Darmstadt in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-50.0.
๐Ÿ‘‰ In the last 7 matches as the home team, SC Freiburg scored at least 1 goal(s).
๐Ÿ‘‰ In the last 5 SC Freiburg matches as the home team, it finished over 2.5 goals.
๐Ÿ‘‰ In the last 4 Darmstadt matches as the away team, it finished over 2.5 goals.
๐Ÿ‘‰ In the last 7 matches as the away team, Darmstadt conceded at least 1 goal(s).

๐Ÿ“Š Check out the full analysis on Betfellows: Prognostic for SC Freiburg x Darmstadt

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Summary

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Analysis from SC Freiburg x Darmstadt for the Germany Bundesliga I – 25 of November

๐ŸŸ๏ธ SC Freiburg X Darmstadt – Germany Bundesliga I
๐Ÿ“… 25 of November, 2023 – 14:30
๐Ÿ”ต SC Freiburg – Winning probability: 81.02% | Fair line: 1.23
โšช Tied game – Probability of tied match: 12.84% | Fair line: 7.79
๐Ÿ”ด Darmstadt – Winning probability: 6.14% | Fair line: 16.28
โš– Handicap 1×2: -1.0 SC Freiburg
โšฝ Expected goals: 3.00 goals
โ›ณ Expected corner kicks: 9.75 corner kicks

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for SC Freiburg x Darmstadt right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1024927 matches on the betting prognostics platform Betfellows , in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Tips for the Match Odds market for SC Freiburg x Darmstadt

Is it a good idea to bet on SC Freiburg?

๐Ÿ”ต SC Freiburg: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 81.02%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.55. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

  • Would hit 810 times – profiting $445.50;
  • And would have lost other 190 times – with a loss of -$190.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of ๐Ÿ’ฐ$255.50.

Is it worth betting on draw?

โšช draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 12.84% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 4.20. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 130 times – this would give you a profit of $416.00
  • And would have lost other 870 times – with a loss of -$870.00 because of them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of ๐Ÿ’ฐ-$454.00.

Should you bet on Darmstadt?

๐Ÿ”ด Darmstadt: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 6.14%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 5.50. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 60 times – this would give you a profit of $270.00
  • And would lose other 940 times – having a loss of -$940.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of ๐Ÿ’ฐ-$670.00.

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Handicaps analysis for the match SC Freiburg x Darmstadt

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

โš– Handicap 1×2: -1.0 SC Freiburg
โšฝ Expected goals: 3.00 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for SC Freiburg x Darmstadt

โš– Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -1.0 SC Freiburg, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -1.0 SC Freiburg. As the handicap available on the market is the same as that indicated by our robot, we will do nothing since there is not value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for SC Freiburg x Darmstadt

โšฝ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.00 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.75 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.75 goals.

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Written by

Autor
Humberto Alves

Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.

> Check other content created by Humberto Alves