SC Freiburg x Werder Bremen Betting tips for February 7 in Germany Bundesliga I

Our betting tip for SC Freiburg x Werder Bremen, Saturday, 7/2/2026

📅 7/2/2026 14:30

SC Freiburg 1.76

X 3.75

Werder Bremen 4.20

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for SC Freiburg x Werder Bremen:

🔮 Werder Bremen wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Werder Bremen, you can win up to $2100.00!

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Some important points for the tip for SC Freiburg x Werder Bremen:

👉 If you had bet $100 on SC Freiburg in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $143.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Werder Bremen in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500.
👉 Werder Bremen did not score any goals in the last 4 matches as away team.
👉 In the last 7 matches as the home team, SC Freiburg scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team against Werder Bremen, SC Freiburg scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 SC Freiburg is good playing home: it has 3 wins in a row in its last matches at home.
👉 SC Freiburg has not lost any of the last 4 head-to-head matches against Werder Bremen playing at home.

🤖 Critical analysis from ChatGPT on our prediction for SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen:

Lets analyze the match between SC Freiburg and Werder Bremen in the Bundesliga, which will take place at Europa-Park-Stadion, Freiburgs home ground. The stadium is modern and provides a favorable environment for the home team, which has shown good performance in recent games.

📈 Table analysis: SC Freiburg is comfortably positioned in 4th place, aiming to stay firm to secure a spot in European competitions. Meanwhile, Werder Bremen fights against relegation, pressured to earn points away from home to escape the danger zone. This difference in motivation can significantly influence the outcome.

Freiburg shows solid numbers playing at home: 4 wins and only 1 draw in the last 5 home games, with an average of 1.4 goals scored per game (7 goals/5 games) and a low conceded average (0.6). Additionally, they dominate offensive stats with a high number of shots (19 per game) and superior ball possession (57%).

On the other hand, Werder Bremen has clear difficulties away: no wins in the last 5 league away games, conceding more goals than they score (average less than 0.5 goals per game). The defense is weakened due to important injuries in the defensive midfield and backline.

From median odds, we have the implied normalized probabilities:

• Freiburg win: ~54%
• Draw: ~25%
• Werder Bremen win: ~21%

Crossing this with statistical data — strong home attack vs. vulnerable visiting defense — my fair estimate would be approximately:

• Freiburg win: 58% – reinforcing their favoritism due to technical quality and home advantage;
• Draw: 24% – moderate possibility given defensive resistance;
• Werder Bremen win: 18% – unlikely due to the visitors poor form.

Thus, fair odds would be approximately:
Freiburg @1.72 | Draw @4.17 | Werder Bremen @5.56

Comparing with final odds, the value is mainly in the visitors victory according to the Bets Kenya model, which suggests a lower predicted odds (~3.22) but a higher final odd (~4.20), generating a high positive EV (+30%). However, my analysis indicates that this bet is risky because the data show real fragility of the visitors with little chance against a solid home team.

Betting on Freiburg seems safer even with a small negative EV (-18%) because they have better control of recent matches and the tactical/motivational advantage evidenced by news of serious injuries in the visiting team and important recovery at the home team.

Final suggestion:

• Recommended bet: Freiburg win 🏠⚽️
• Be very careful when betting on the underdog; despite the positive expected value according to the Bets Kenya model for the visitors win, my study does not confirm this expectation due to current team conditions.

📰 News highlights influencing the match:
– Starting goalkeeper sidelined for SC Freiburg but defender recovered.
– New coach recently arrived at Werder Bremen facing serious defensive problems.
– Recent strategic changes may negatively impact the visitors.

Overall, I believe it will be a controlled match by SC Freiburg at their modern Europa-Park-Stadion, where they are usually strong! Are you in? 🚀⚽️

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Analysis from SC Freiburg x Werder Bremen for the Germany Bundesliga I – 7 of February

Latest news on the match between SC Freiburg and Werder Bremen

SC Freiburg: SC Freiburg started 2026 with a series of varied events: goalkeeper Florian Kübler remains sidelined, while defender Nico Höler has recovered and is available again. The team led by coach Christian Streich completed the Europa League group stage and is awaiting the draw for the knockout rounds, which could pit them against a major European team. In national news, a 1-0 defeat to VfB Stuttgart left them in fourth place in the Bundesliga. During the winter transfer window, the club saw the return of Eren Dinkci from loan to 1. FC Heidenheim, among other minor transfers, while rumors link forward Junior Adamu to a possible transfer to Celtic. Additionally, the club will change its main and kit sponsor for the 2026/27 season after three years with Jobrad, although the previous sponsor remains involved in other areas.

Werder Bremen: Werder Bremen confirmed Daniel Thioune as their new coach following Horst Steffens departure. Thioune—who has previously managed Fortuna Düsseldorf and had a brief stint at Hamburger SV—will lead his first training session on Wednesday at 2 PM, accompanied by new assistant Jan Hoepner. The club, currently fighting to escape relegation, had considered other candidates like Bo Svensson and Bo Henriksen before withdrawing. Now, they face defensive issues as midfielder Felix Agu suffered a serious syndesmotic injury that will sideline him for an extended period, and defender Amos Pieper has a knee problem expected to keep him out for several weeks.

Table analysis for the match between SC Freiburg x Werder Bremen

SC Freiburg: SC Freiburg is in 7th place with 27 points, tied with the 8th position and comfortably in the middle of the table. With remote chances of reaching a spot for international competitions, this game is important to keep a safe distance from the relegation zone and ensure a smooth stay in the Bundesliga. A victory against Werder Bremen could bring more peace of mind and even open the way to seek a better position, making the match relevant for Freiburg.

Werder Bremen: Werder Bremen is in 15th place with 19 points, close to the relegation zone (occupied by Mainz in 16th with 18 points). Every point is crucial for Bremen to avoid the real risk of direct relegation or the playoff. Therefore, the game against Freiburg, a direct opponent in the lower part of the table, is decisive to avoid problems at the end of the season and guarantee top-flight survival, making this match very important for the visiting team.

Summary: An important game for both teams, especially for Werder Bremen, which needs points to escape danger. For SC Freiburg, although not threatened at the moment, it is a vital opportunity to consolidate in the safe part of the table.

How the handicap and odds moved for SC Freiburg x Werder Bremen

One step many punters overlook is analysing the movement of odds and the handicap over time. Doing this gives a clearer idea of market expectations for the match between SC Freiburg x Werder Bremen.

Check the summary below that compares opening odds with current odds across the main markets: 1X2, handicap and goals.

Tips for the Match Odds market for SC Freiburg x Werder Bremen

When the best bet on SC Freiburg x Werder Bremen is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1475397 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Is it worth betting on SC Freiburg?

🔵 SC Freiburg: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 44.27%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.76. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 440 times – this would give you a profit of $334.40
• And would lose other 560 times – having a loss of -$560.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$225.60.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 23.77% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.75. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 240 times – profiting $660.00;
• And would have lost other 760 times – with a loss of -$760.00 because of them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$100.00.

Is it worth betting on Werder Bremen?

🔴 Werder Bremen: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 31.96%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 4.20. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 320 times – this would give you a profit of $1024.00
• And would have lost other 680 times – with a loss of -$680.00 because of them.

It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$344.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match SC Freiburg x Werder Bremen

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.75 SC Freiburg
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for SC Freiburg x Werder Bremen

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.75 SC Freiburg, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.75 SC Freiburg. As the handicap available on the market is the same as that indicated by our robot, we will do nothing since there is not value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for SC Freiburg x Werder Bremen

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.75 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.75 goals.

Since there is not big differences between the handicap offered by bookies and the one suggested by our algorithm, we can consider that there is no value to bet on the Goals Handicap market.

FAQs: Common questions about the tip for SC Freiburg x Werder Bremen