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Home Β» Predictions Β» Bundesliga 1 Β» St Pauli x Union Berlin Betting tips for January 26 in Germany Bundesliga I
Sunday, 26 January 2025, 16h30 Germany Bundesliga I
St Pauli St Pauli
PREDICTION No tip
Union Berlin Union Berlin
Don't miss this prediction!

St Pauli x Union Berlin Betting tips for January 26 in Germany Bundesliga I

Our betting tip for St Pauli x Union Berlin, Sunday, 26/1/2025
πŸ“… 26/1/2025
16:30
St Pauli St Pauli
2.50
X
3.10
Union Berlin Union Berlin
2.90

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for St Pauli x Union Berlin:

πŸ‘Ž Unfortunately, we do not have any positive expected value tips for St Pauli x Union Berlin

Some important points for the tip for St Pauli x Union Berlin:

πŸ‘‰ If you had bet $100 on St Pauli in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-333.0.
πŸ‘‰ If you had bet $100 on Union Berlin in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500.
πŸ‘‰ In the last 4 matches as the home team, St Pauli conceded at least 1 goal(s).
πŸ‘‰ In the last 6 matches as the away team, Union Berlin conceded at least 1 goal(s).
πŸ‘‰ Playing as the home team, St Pauli conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 3 head-to-head against Union Berlin.
πŸ‘‰ It is not a good time for Union Berlin as away team: it comes from 6 losses in a row in its last away matches.

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Summary

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Analysis from St Pauli x Union Berlin for the Germany Bundesliga I – 26 of January

🏟️ St Pauli X Union Berlin – Germany Bundesliga I
πŸ“… 26 of January, 2025 – 16:30
πŸ”΅ St Pauli – Winning probability: 41.80% | Fair line: 2.39
βšͺ Tied game – Probability of tied match: 29.80% | Fair line: 3.36
πŸ”΄ Union Berlin – Winning probability: 28.40% | Fair line: 3.52
βš– Handicap 1Γ—2: 0.0 St Pauli
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals
β›³ Expected corner kicks: 10.00 corner kicks

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for St Pauli x Union Berlin right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1251610 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Tips for the Match Odds market for St Pauli x Union Berlin

Should you bet on St Pauli?

πŸ”΅ St Pauli: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 41.8%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.50. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

  • Would have hit 420 times – having a profit of $630.00;
  • And would lose other 580 times – having a loss of -$580.00 with them.

Although this bet has some value, notice that the expected profit is just πŸ’°$50.00, which is not worth the risk in our point of view.

Is it worth betting on draw?

βšͺ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 29.8%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.10. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

  • Would hit 300 times – profiting $630.00;
  • And would lose other 700 times – losing -$700.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of πŸ’°-$70.00.

Is betting on Union Berlin worth it?

πŸ”΄ Union Berlin: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 28.4% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.90. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would have hit 280 times – having a profit of $532.00;
  • And would lose other 720 times – losing -$720.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of πŸ’°-$188.00.

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Handicaps analysis for the match St Pauli x Union Berlin

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

βš– Handicap 1Γ—2: 0.0 St Pauli
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1Γ—2 market for St Pauli x Union Berlin

βš– Handicap 1Γ—2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 0.0 St Pauli, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 0.0 St Pauli.

Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Handicap 1Γ—2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for St Pauli x Union Berlin

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 3.00 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.25 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.75. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.

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Written by
Autor
Humberto Alves

Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.

> Check other content created by Humberto Alves
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