St Pauli x Werder Bremen Betting tips for February 22 in Germany Bundesliga I

Our betting tip for St Pauli x Werder Bremen, Sunday, 22/2/2026

📅 22/2/2026 16:30

St Pauli 2.60

X 3.05

Werder Bremen 2.69

Our algorithm has selected this tip for St Pauli x Werder Bremen:

👎 Umm…too bad! We did not find any positive expected value bets for St Pauli x Werder Bremen

The main points for the tip for St Pauli x Werder Bremen:

👉 If you had bet $100 on St Pauli in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $158.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Werder Bremen in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500.
👉 Werder Bremen did not score any goals in the last 5 matches as away team.
👉 In the last 4 head-to-head matches between St Pauli x Werder Bremen, with St Pauli as the home team, they finished under 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 3 matches as the away team, Werder Bremen conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 It is not a good time for Werder Bremen as away team: it comes from 3 losses in a row in its last away matches.

🤖 ChatGPT’s take on our prediction for St Pauli vs Werder Bremen:

Lets analyze the match between St. Pauli and Werder Bremen, which will take place at Millerntor-Stadion, home of St. Pauli, a stadium known for its vibrant atmosphere and passionate fan support.

📈 Table analysis: Both teams are in the lower part of the Bundesliga I standings, fighting to avoid relegation. St. Pauli has a better home streak (undefeated in the last 5 home games), while Werder Bremen is going through a tough away phase, with no wins in the last 5 away matches and conceding many goals.

📰 News: St. Pauli has a coach focused on progressive football and youth development, strengthening the squad with targeted signings to maintain league stability. Werder Bremen recently changed coaches and faces internal issues such as DFB fines and defensive problems evident in recent matches; additionally, their young goalkeeper is trying to help the team recover.

Based on median odds, the implied normalized probabilities are: home win ~37%, draw ~31%, away win ~32%. Considering recent stats — especially St. Paulis solid defense at home (0 losses in last 5 games) versus Werder Bremens offensive fragility away — I would adjust these probabilities to approximately: St. Pauli win 40%, draw 30%, Werder Bremen win 30%.

Thus, fair odds would be approximately: home win @2.50, draw @3.33, away win @3.33.

Looking at the final odds offered by bookmakers (2.7 / 3.1 / 2.8), it appears that the odds for an away win are underestimated given their recent performance; the draw odds seem fair; while the home win odds are slightly inflated compared to my fair prediction.

Expected value calculations indicate a positive value only for betting on the away team win according to the Bets Kenya model (+9%), but my analysis suggests caution due to their recent poor form away and technical instability after the coach change.

Final suggestion: Bet on St. Pauli, as they play at their traditional stadium with strong local support at a more defensively consistent moment; or consider a double bet (win or draw) emphasizing this home stability against a vulnerable opponent away from home.
Betting directly on Werder Bremen seems risky despite attractive odds — high risk due to their current situation.
Therefore, my tip is to value the local team with fair odds close to @2.50 — this provides greater security for the bettor! ⚽🔥

Do you want other options of bookmakers to bet on St Pauli x Werder Bremen?

If you want to take a look at more options of betting websites, we, from the Clube, have listed our favorites for you. Right below you can check the best kenyan betting sites from 2026, carefully analysed by us. Pick yours and start betting now on St Pauli x Werder Bremen:

Analysis from St Pauli x Werder Bremen for the Germany Bundesliga I – 22 of February

Latest news on the match between St Pauli and Werder Bremen

St. Pauli: St. Pauli, competing in the 2. Bundesliga, will face Werder Bremen on Sunday at 5:30 PM. Under coach Fabian Hürzeler, the club aims for a solid mid-table position, strengthening the squad with some summer signings, including a midfielder from the Regionalliga. The team maintains its reputation for progressive football, strong youth development, and active community engagement.

Werder Bremen: Werder Bremen dismissed Horst Steffen in early February 2026 after a 1-1 draw with Borussia Mönchengladbach, appointing Daniel Thioune as the new coach, with Clemens Fritz briefly serving as interim. Thioune highlighted that the upcoming friendly against Bayern Munich is “mega cool” and should not be treated as a routine task, noted the return of defender Niklas Stark to training, warned that full-back Felix Agu still needs integration but should play at least 45 minutes, and promised to give starting opportunities to all squad members. The club faces a fine from the DFB imposed after the costly Nordderby in December, is in a delicate league position near relegation zone, and 21-year-old goalkeeper Mio Backhaus hopes to help start a recovery.

Table analysis for the match between St Pauli and Werder Bremen

St Pauli: St Pauli is in 17th place, within the direct relegation zone, with 17 points in a very tough season. This match is crucial to try to earn important points that could help escape the drop zone, avoiding relegation in the Bundesliga. Every point gained can make a difference in the fight for survival in the German top flight. Therefore, the game is extremely important for St Pauli. ⚠️

Werder Bremen: Werder Bremen is just above in 16th place, in the relegation playoff zone, with 19 points, and also faces a delicate situation. The difference from St Pauli is small, and a victory could mean an advantage in the direct fight, increasing the chances of staying in the league or, ideally, escaping this dangerous zone. For Werder Bremen, this game is very important to try to move away from relegation. 🔥

Summary: The match is of utmost importance for both clubs, as it involves a direct fight to avoid relegation. The victory could be a significant relief in the fight to stay in the Bundesliga, making the game decisive for the ambitions of St Pauli and Werder Bremen. ⚽🔥

Analysis of odds and handicap movement for St Pauli x Werder Bremen

It is always useful to analyse how the odds and the handicap behaved over time. This helps us understand where the betting market is heading and what punters expect for the match between St Pauli x Werder Bremen.

Below you will see a summary that compares the opening odds with the current odds in the main markets: 1X2, handicap and goals.

Tips for the 1×2 market for St Pauli x Werder Bremen

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between St Pauli and Werder Bremen.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1483644 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Is it worth betting on St Pauli?

🔵 St Pauli: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 38.07%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.60. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 380 times – this would give you a profit of $608.00
• And would have lost other 620 times – with a loss of -$620.00 because of them.

Even if it is a positive expected value bet, the expected profit is just 💰$12.00 which is not worth the risk in our opinion.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 29.73% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.05. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 300 times – profiting $615.00;
• And would lose other 700 times – losing -$700.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$85.00.

Is it worth betting on Werder Bremen?

🔴 Werder Bremen: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 32.2% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.69. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 320 times – having a profit of $540.80;
• And would lose other 680 times – losing -$680.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$139.20.

Handicaps analysis for the match St Pauli x Werder Bremen

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 St Pauli
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for St Pauli x Werder Bremen

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 0.0 St Pauli and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 0.0 St Pauli.

The handicap that our algorithm found is the same as the bookies, which means that there is not any value to bet on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for St Pauli x Werder Bremen

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.25 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.

FAQs: Frequently asked questions about the prediction for St Pauli x Werder Bremen