TSG Hoffenheim x Hamburg Betting tips for December 13 in Germany Bundesliga I

Our betting tip for TSG Hoffenheim x Hamburg, Saturday, 13/12/2025

📅 13/12/2025 14:30

TSG Hoffenheim 1.74

X 4.02

Hamburg 4.00

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for TSG Hoffenheim x Hamburg:

🔮 Hamburg wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Hamburg, you can win up to $2000.00!

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Important information for your tip for TSG Hoffenheim x Hamburg:

👉 If you had bet $100 on TSG Hoffenheim in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $92.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Hamburg in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-240.0.
👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team, TSG Hoffenheim scored at least 3 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 TSG Hoffenheim matches as the home team, it finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 TSG Hoffenheim is good playing home: it has 3 wins in a row in its last matches at home.

🤖 Critical insight from ChatGPT on the prediction for TSG Hoffenheim vs Hamburg:

Lets analyze the match between TSG Hoffenheim and Hamburg at PreZero Arena, which is a multi-purpose stadium located in Gliwice, Poland — meaning Hoffenheim will not play in their usual stadium, which could impact the home advantage.

📈 Table analysis: Hoffenheim is at the top of the Bundesliga mid-table and is seeking a spot in European competitions. This indicates high motivation to earn important points. Hamburg comes from a dramatic victory in the 2. Bundesliga and faces issues with injuries and suspensions, which could affect their performance.

Recent statistics show Hoffenheim averages 2 goals scored at home per game against 1 conceded; Hamburg scores about 1 goal away but also concedes about 1 goal per match. Hoffenheim has more recent home wins (3 wins in the last 5 games) while Hamburg has only won 1 of their last away games.

Based on median odds, the implied normalized probabilities are: home win ~52%, draw ~23%, away win ~23%. Considering Hoffenheims superior offensive stats even when playing away from their usual stadium (PreZero Arena), their motivation for European qualification, and the problems in the opponents squad, my fair estimate would be: Hoffenheim win with a probability between 50-55%, a draw around 25%, and Hamburg around 20-25%.

Adjusting fair odds for these factors: bet on Hoffenheim with fair odds around @1.85; draw @4.0; away win @4.5.

The Bets Kenya model suggests very low predicted odds for the home team win (around @1.50), indicating high confidence in the home team, but it overestimates the odds for a draw (@6) and away win (@5.9), suggesting low chances for these outcomes — this results in a positive expected value only for a bet on the home win (+12%).

My calculation agrees on the higher chance of the “home” team winning (even on a neutral field), but I believe the final market odds are more realistic ([email protected]). Therefore, I see moderate value in a Hoffenheim bet considering their recent offensive strength combined with extra motivation from their position in the table.

📰 News: The promising emergence of Adam Hlozek boosts Hoffenheims attack, while veterans praise the current team — this boosts confidence even when away from their usual grounds.
Hamburg faces significant injuries like Dompé and a crucial suspension for Rössling, along with recent cup difficulties, which could negatively influence their performance in this tough match against a motivated opponent.

Suggested bet: Hoffenheim victory with an estimated positive expected value above +10%. I would avoid bets on a draw or away win due to the low EV calculated by both the model and my own analysis.
Trust in the renewed offensive power of the Germans even when playing away!

#Bundesliga #FootballBets #TSGHoffenheim #Hamburg #ApuestasClub ⚽🔥

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Analysis from TSG Hoffenheim x Hamburg for the Germany Bundesliga I – 13 of December

When the best bet on TSG Hoffenheim x Hamburg is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1452291 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Latest news about TSG Hoffenheim x Hamburg

TSG Hoffenheim: The mens first team of TSG Hoffenheim, coached by Christian Ilzer, is currently positioned at the top of the mid-table in the Bundesliga and is seeking a spot in European competitions, having faced Borussia Dortmund in the 13th round with the game broadcast on TV and streaming; the team is benefiting from the emergence of Adam Hlozek, who now gets regular minutes, while veteran Grischa Prömel praised the teams recent performances, although the club is under scrutiny by UEFAs Financial Control Chamber for possible financial fair play violations; Hoffenheims womens team, temporarily led by Thomas Johrden after the national team break, is preparing for a match against Union Berlin, and Hoffenheim II, competing in the 3. Liga, suffered a narrow 1-0 defeat to FC Ingolstadt 04.

Hamburger SV: Hamburger SV recently returned to winning in the 2. Bundesliga, securing a dramatic 3-2 victory over Werder Bremen, with captain Yussuf Poulsen scoring the decisive goal, while Albert Sambi-Lokonga added an important early goal; however, their cup campaign was halted after a penalty shootout loss to Holstein Kiel, following a 4-2 defeat, and the squad continues to deal with injury issues, with Dompé facing Achilles tendon problems and Rösslings suspension, while new signings like Marco Grüll and Justin Njinmah have gained more prominence.

Table analysis for the match between TSG Hoffenheim x Hamburg

TSG Hoffenheim: TSG Hoffenheim is in 5th place with 23 points and is still fighting for a spot in the UEFA Europa League, as they are just a few points behind the 4th place team that guarantees a Champions League spot. This match is very important for Hoffenheim to maintain or even improve their position on the table, especially because the season is advanced and every point makes a difference in the fight for continental competitions. A positive result can solidify the team in the qualification zone for European tournaments.

Hamburg: Hamburg is a bit lower, in 13th place with 15 points, but still far from the relegation zone, which starts at 16th place with 11 points. For Hamburg, although the risk of relegation is not immediate, the match is important to try to move away from the bottom positions and seek stability on the table. Every point counts to ensure Bundesliga permanence, so the game has significant weight for the team, which needs to accumulate points to avoid entering the danger zone in upcoming rounds.

Summary: The match between TSG Hoffenheim and Hamburg is important for both teams, but for different reasons: Hoffenheim seeks a spot in European competitions, while Hamburg wants to stay away from relegation. Therefore, the confrontation is relevant for both teams and promises to be competitive.

Tips for the 1×2 market for TSG Hoffenheim x Hamburg

Is it worth betting on TSG Hoffenheim?

🔵 TSG Hoffenheim: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 55.49% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.74. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 550 times – this would give you a profit of $407.00
• And would lose other 450 times – having a loss of -$450.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$43.00.

Should you bet on draw?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 16.57%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 4.02. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 170 times – this would give you a profit of $513.40
• And would have lost other 830 times – with a loss of -$830.00 because of them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$316.60.

Is it worth betting on Hamburg?

🔴 Hamburg: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 27.94%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 4.00. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 280 times – profiting $840.00;
• And would have lost other 720 times – with a loss of -$720.00 because of them.

That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$120.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match TSG Hoffenheim x Hamburg

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 TSG Hoffenheim
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for TSG Hoffenheim x Hamburg

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 0.0 TSG Hoffenheim, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.75 TSG Hoffenheim.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.75, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.75 Hamburg.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for TSG Hoffenheim x Hamburg

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 3.00 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 3.00 goals.

Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Goals Handicap market.