TSG Hoffenheim x SC Freiburg Betting tips for February 14 in Germany Bundesliga I

Our betting tip for TSG Hoffenheim x SC Freiburg, Saturday, 14/2/2026

📅 14/2/2026 14:30

TSG Hoffenheim 1.78

X 3.80

SC Freiburg 4.00

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for TSG Hoffenheim x SC Freiburg:

🔮 SC Freiburg wins the match
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Important information for your tip for TSG Hoffenheim x SC Freiburg:

👉 If you had bet $100 on TSG Hoffenheim in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $448.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on SC Freiburg in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500.
👉 In the last 7 matches as the home team, TSG Hoffenheim scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 SC Freiburg matches as the away team, it finished under 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 7 matches as the away team, SC Freiburg conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 TSG Hoffenheim is good playing home: it has 7 wins in a row in its last matches at home.

🤖 Critical analysis from ChatGPT on our prediction for TSG Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg:

Lets analyze the match between TSG Hoffenheim and SC Freiburg at PreZero Arena, which is Hoffenheims usual stadium, giving them the home advantage. 🏟️

📈 Hoffenheim has a very strong home performance: 5 wins in their last 5 home games, averaging 3.2 goals per game and conceding only 0.6. They dominate offensive and defensive stats at home, with more ball possession (57%) and higher shot volume (15 per game). Freiburg has shown fragility away from home, with only 1 win in their last 5 away games and a low average of 1.6 goals scored against a defense that concedes quite a bit (2.2 goals on average). Additionally, their possession is low (39%), indicating difficulty controlling games away from their stadium.

📰 Recent news indicates Hoffenheim is trying to maintain administrative stability despite a heavy loss to Bayern; Freiburg faces technical issues with the coach suspended for this important Bundesliga match.

Analyzing the median odds: Hoffenheim victory is priced at 1.8 (~55% implied), draw at 3.8 (~26%), and Freiburg victory at 4 (~25%). After normalizing the implied probabilities, we get approximately: Hoffenheim win ~49%, draw ~23%, Freiburg win ~28%.

Based on the combined statistical data, adjusted odds, and team context, I would estimate fair probabilities close to these normalized values — clearly favoring the home team due to their recent excellent form playing at Sinsheim/PreZero Arena.

The fair odds for Hoffenheim victory would be around 1.9 – 2, as football always carries risks; a draw near fair odds ~4; and an away win could be priced above current house offers (>4), given their poor form away.

Expected value analysis of the final odds:

• Hoffenheim Win: Final odds = 1.7 vs. estimated fair odds ~ 1/0.49=2.04 → Negative EV (-20%)
• Draw: Final odds = 3.9 vs. fair odds ~4 → Neutral or slightly positive EV (+0-5%)
• Freiburg Win: Final odds = 4.333 vs. fair odds >4 → Significant positive EV (+15-20%)

Therefore, my suggested bet would be on SC Freiburgs victory due to the positive expected value found — even as underdogs, they could surprise especially if they exploit tactical or emotional instability in the opponent after recent news.

However, I partially agree with the Bets Kenya model, which also indicates value in the away bet with a high positive expectation (+19%). I totally disagree with betting on the home team as I see a clear negative value (-21%). The draw does not present relevant value according to both calculations.

Bets Kenya suggestion: Victory SC Freiburg ✅ Expected Value +19%

Always remember that betting involves risks! Use this analysis as support but bet responsibly 😉⚽️

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Analysis from TSG Hoffenheim x SC Freiburg for the Germany Bundesliga I – 14 of February

Latest news on the match between TSG Hoffenheim and SC Freiburg

TSG Hoffenheim: TSG Hoffenheim confirmed that Andreas Schicker will continue as sporting director after a shareholders meeting was canceled, while vice-president Christoph Henssler resigned immediately; despite a heavy 5-1 defeat to Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga, coach Christian Ilzer expressed pride in the teams performance, highlighting the initial draw that led Andrej Kramaric to celebrate before Bayerns subsequent dominance, along with a controversial penalty and a red card for Hoffenheim defender Kevin Akpoguma.

SC Freiburg: SC Freiburgs recent week was a mix of triumph and controversy: after two consecutive 1-0 losses, the team recovered with a win, but coach Julian Schuster received a suspension for an incident involving a red card that he couldnt fully explain, keeping him out of the next game; despite the setback, Schuster praised captain Andreas Reese for leadership and confirmed that goalkeeper Florian Müller will keep his position in goal for the upcoming DFB-Pokal match, as the club prepares for the Bundesliga clash against Werder Bremen on February 7, 2026, at Europa-Park Stadion in Freiburg.

Table analysis for the game between TSG Hoffenheim and SC Freiburg

TSG Hoffenheim: Hoffenheim is in 3rd place with 42 points, currently in the Champions League qualification zone. Every point is crucial to maintain this privileged position, especially to stay ahead of 4th place RB Leipzig, which has 39 points. The match against SC Freiburg is extremely important for Hoffenheim, as a victory could secure a bigger gap in the race for a spot in next seasons main European competition, besides keeping the team at the top of the table and increasing pressure on their direct competitors. ⚽🔥

SC Freiburg: Freiburg is in 7th place with 30 points, outside the direct European competition spots and 6 points behind 6th place Bayer Leverkusen, which has a Conference League spot, still far from the Europa League qualification zone. For Freiburg, this match is very important, as a win could bring the team closer to European qualification spots, keeping hope alive and improving their position on the table. Therefore, the game against Hoffenheim is decisive to improve their situation in this crucial stretch. ⚽💪

Summary: The game is important for both teams. Hoffenheim aims to stay firm in the fight for Champions League spots, while Freiburg wants to get closer to the pack competing in European competitions, making this confrontation quite significant for each teams ambitions in the Bundesliga. 🔥

How the handicap and odds moved for TSG Hoffenheim x SC Freiburg

We will also look at how the odds and handicap have evolved over time. This approach helps capture the market sentiment for the fixture between TSG Hoffenheim x SC Freiburg.

Below you will find a summary comparing opening odds with current odds in the principal markets: 1X2, handicap and goals.

Tips for the 1×2 market for TSG Hoffenheim x SC Freiburg

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between TSG Hoffenheim and SC Freiburg.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1479379 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Is it worth betting on TSG Hoffenheim?

🔵 TSG Hoffenheim: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 46.94%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.78. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 470 times – having a profit of $366.60;
• And would lose other 530 times – losing -$530.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$163.40.

Should you bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 25.62% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.80. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 260 times – profiting $728.00;
• And would have lost other 740 times – with a loss of -$740.00 because of them.

Even if it is a positive expected value bet, the expected profit is just 💰$12.00 which is not worth the risk in our opinion.

Is betting on SC Freiburg worth it?

🔴 SC Freiburg: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 27.45%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 4.00. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 270 times – this would give you a profit of $810.00
• And would lose other 730 times – having a loss of -$730.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$80.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match TSG Hoffenheim x SC Freiburg

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.0 TSG Hoffenheim
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for TSG Hoffenheim x SC Freiburg

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -1.0 TSG Hoffenheim, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.75 TSG Hoffenheim.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.75 TSG Hoffenheim.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for TSG Hoffenheim x SC Freiburg

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.75 goals.

Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Goals Handicap market.

FAQs: Common questions about the tip for TSG Hoffenheim x SC Freiburg