TSG Hoffenheim x St Pauli Betting tips for February 28 in Germany Bundesliga I

Our betting tip for TSG Hoffenheim x St Pauli, Saturday, 28/2/2026

📅 28/2/2026 14:30

TSG Hoffenheim 1.53

X 4.20

St Pauli 5.40

Our algorithm has selected this tip for TSG Hoffenheim x St Pauli:

👎 Umm…what a pity! We do not have any positive expected value tips for TSG Hoffenheim x St Pauli

The main points for the tip for TSG Hoffenheim x St Pauli:

👉 If you had bet $100 on TSG Hoffenheim in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $446.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on St Pauli in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500.
👉 In the last 7 matches as the home team, TSG Hoffenheim scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 5 St Pauli matches as the away team, it finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 5 matches as the away team, St Pauli conceded at least 2 goal(s).
👉 TSG Hoffenheim is good playing home: it has 7 wins in a row in its last matches at home.
👉 It is not a good time for St Pauli as away team: it comes from 5 losses in a row in its last away matches.

🤖 Critical insight from ChatGPT on the prediction for TSG Hoffenheim vs St Pauli:

Lets analyze the match between TSG Hoffenheim and FC St. Pauli at PreZero Arena, which is Hoffenheims usual stadium, ensuring a home advantage for them.

📈 Table analysis and performance: Hoffenheim has an impressive home streak: 5 wins in the last 5 games, averaging 3.2 goals per game and conceding only 0.6 goals. Meanwhile, St. Pauli has a poor away record, with 5 consecutive losses and a low average of goals scored (0.8) against many goals conceded (2.8). This shows a clear imbalance between the teams, heavily favoring Hoffenheim.

📰 Recent news: Hoffenheim strengthened their squad with promising young players like Luis Engelns and renewed important contracts, showing investment in the main team despite the tough phase of the reserve team — this could motivate the main squad to maintain their good form in Bundesliga I.
St. Pauli is under new management with Jan-Marc Riegert trying to rebuild the club after a poor previous campaign; although they made targeted signings and promoted young talents, they are still far from ideal, especially away from home.

Odds analysis:

• Average odds: Hoffenheim win (1.55), draw (4.2), St. Pauli win (5.15).
• Normalized implied probabilities: approximately 62% for Hoffenheim win, 15% draw, and 12% for away win.

Based on statistical data — clear offensive dominance in accurate shots (7×3) and higher ball possession (57% vs 40%) — plus solid home defense versus visitor fragility — I estimate fair probabilities close to:
Hoffenheim victory ~65%, Draw ~20%, St. Pauli victory ~15%.

Thus, fair odds would be approximately:
Hoffenheim: ~1.54
Draw: ~5
St. Pauli: ~6.7

The final odds for an away victory are quite inflated at 7 compared to my fair estimate (~6.7), while the other odds are close or slightly favorable to the market.

Expected value analysis:

• The final odds for an away win are higher than my estimated fair odds, indicating potential positive value in this bet;
• However, considering St. Paulis recent poor away performance combined with Hoffenheims clear offensive/defensive strength suggests this bet carries high risk;
• The safest bet seems to be Hoffenheims victory due to their recent consistent numbers;

Final suggestion: I partially agree with the Bets Kenya model indicating positive value in the “away victory” bet due to the high odds offered; however, my safest guess is to bet on Hoffenheim winning this match because of the demonstrated technical superiority in recent statistics.

– Expected value for home win is negative;
– For draw also negative;
– For away win, EV is positive but risky.

Therefore, my recommendation is a cautious bet on Hoffenheims victory, taking advantage of their strength playing at home 🏠⚽️!

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Analysis from TSG Hoffenheim x St Pauli for the Germany Bundesliga I – 28 of February

Latest news about TSG Hoffenheim x St Pauli

TSG Hoffenheim: TSG Hoffenheim has been active in the transfer market, confirming at the last minute the signing of 18-year-old midfielder Luis Engelns, coming from SC Paderborn, and extending the contract of Czech right-back Vladimir Coufal, while the clubs reserve team, Hoffenheim II, is going through a tough phase after earning just one point in six games and being only eight points above the relegation zone. They are preparing to face TSV 1860 München in the 26th round, with expectations of having Engelns in the starting lineup.

FC St. Pauli: FC St. Pauli is competing in the 2025-26 season of the 2. Bundesliga under the new coach Jan-Marc Riegert, a former club player who took over in June 2025 after a disappointing campaign in 2024-25. The club strengthened its squad with some targeted signings — including Austrian forward Leon Dajc and experienced defender Christopher Schindler, both on free transfers — as well as promoting several youth players to the main team. After 12 rounds, the team is in eighth position, with recent victories over Hannover 96 (2-1) and Dynamo Dresden (1-0), continuing to highlight its distinct community culture and activist ethos on and off the field.

Germany Bundesliga I table analysis for TSG Hoffenheim x St Pauli

TSG Hoffenheim: Hoffenheim is currently in 3rd place, in the Champions League qualification zone, with 46 points. With a good points margin over the rivals just below (43 points for 4th place), this game is very important for Hoffenheim to maintain their spot among the top and secure their stay in the fight for the title or at least a direct spot in the most prestigious European competition. A victory will solidify their position and avoid any pressure in the final rounds.

St Pauli: St Pauli is in 16th place, in the relegation playoff zone, with only 20 points. The teams situation is delicate and there is still a chance to escape this zone, so this game is crucial for the club to try to gather important points and avoid the imminent risk of relegation to the second division. Every point makes a big difference in this final stretch for St Pauli, making the match against a strong opponent a true decision for staying in the Bundesliga.

Summary: This is an important game for both teams, as Hoffenheim seeks to consolidate their European spot and St Pauli fights to avoid relegation. Therefore, the match has a significant impact on the standings and the seasons continuation for both clubs. ⚽🔥

Odds and handicap movements for TSG Hoffenheim x St Pauli

One step many punters overlook is analysing the movement of odds and the handicap over time. Doing this gives a clearer idea of market expectations for the match between TSG Hoffenheim x St Pauli.

Check the summary below that compares opening odds with current odds across the main markets: 1X2, handicap and goals.

Tips for the Match Odds market for TSG Hoffenheim x St Pauli

When the best bet on TSG Hoffenheim x St Pauli is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1488452 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Is it a good idea to bet on TSG Hoffenheim?

🔵 TSG Hoffenheim: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 63.03% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.53. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 630 times – profiting $333.90;
• And would lose other 370 times – having a loss of -$370.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$36.10.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 19.77%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 4.20. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 200 times – profiting $640.00;
• And would lose other 800 times – having a loss of -$800.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$160.00.

Is betting on St Pauli worth it?

🔴 St Pauli: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 17.2%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 5.40. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 170 times – having a profit of $748.00;
• And would lose other 830 times – losing -$830.00 with them.

It is a low stake bet, since after all you would have an final expected profit of just 💰$82.00. Which is not even that worthy considering the risk!

Handicaps analysis for the match TSG Hoffenheim x St Pauli

The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.75 TSG Hoffenheim
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for TSG Hoffenheim x St Pauli

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.75 TSG Hoffenheim, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -1.0 TSG Hoffenheim.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 1.0 St Pauli.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for TSG Hoffenheim x St Pauli

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.00 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.75 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.75 goals.

FAQs: Frequently asked questions about the prediction for TSG Hoffenheim x St Pauli