Union Berlin x Bayer Leverkusen Betting tips for February 21 in Germany Bundesliga I

Our betting tip for Union Berlin x Bayer Leverkusen, Saturday, 21/2/2026

📅 21/2/2026 14:30

Union Berlin 2.95

X 3.35

Bayer Leverkusen 2.30

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Union Berlin x Bayer Leverkusen:

👎 Unfortunately, we do not have any positive expected value tips for Union Berlin x Bayer Leverkusen

The main points for the tip for Union Berlin x Bayer Leverkusen:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Union Berlin in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-200.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Bayer Leverkusen in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $5.0.
👉 In the last 3 matches as the away team, Bayer Leverkusen scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 7 matches as the home team, Union Berlin conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 road matches, Bayer Leverkusen has not lost any of them.

🤖 What’s ChatGPT’s opinion on our prediction for Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen?

Lets analyze the match between Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen that will take place at the An der Alten Försterei stadium, the traditional home of Union Berlin, known for its vibrant atmosphere and passionate fans. 🏟️

📈 Union Berlin is coming from a tough phase, with seven games without a win in the Bundesliga and holding the 9th position in the table. Despite that, the team has shown strength at home in the last five games with 8 goals scored and a defensive record of 10 goals conceded. Bayer Leverkusen is better positioned (6th place) and is motivated by a convincing 4-0 victory against FC St. Pauli, plus a more productive away attack (average of 1 goal per game). Ball possession clearly favors the visitor (59% vs. 43%), indicating control of the game.

The median odds indicate favoritism for Bayer Leverkusen (2.3), followed by a draw (3.35) and Union Berlin win (3). After normalizing the implied probabilities from the median odds, we get approximately: Union Berlin win ~33%, Draw ~29%, Bayer Leverkusen win ~38%. Considering recent team statistics — especially Unions recent offensive struggles in league games without wins in the last five matches — I would slightly adjust these probabilities to favor Bayer Leverkusen even more.

Calculating fair odds based on combined statistics and implied probabilities: fair odds for Unions win would be around 3.2-3.4 due to their poor form; a draw around 3.1-3.2; while for the visitors win, something between 2.1-2.25 seems fair given their current superior form.

Analyzing the expected values of the final odds offered by bookmakers compared to my fair estimates, there is no significant positive expected value above +5% for any bet — suggesting there is no clear value bet at this moment.

📰 The news reinforces this analysis: Union faces internal and external difficulties, as admitted by captain Trimmel regarding recent tactical failures; Bayer has recently strengthened its squad by bringing in an experienced loaned goalkeeper to cover an important absence, along with promising young talents arriving soon to boost team morale.

Final analysis: I partially agree with the predictions of the Bets Kenya model, which indicates a slight advantage to the home team but also assigns a high probability to a draw; however, I disagree with the forecasted odds for the visitors win being so high (~2.95), as I believe that given the current conditions, it should be lower due to the recent technical superiority of the visitors.
My recommendation is caution in this match: avoid aggressive bets as I havent identified a relevant positive expected value in the current odds.
Bet on the draw or even consider an alternative market for a safer option! ⚽🤝

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Analysis from Union Berlin x Bayer Leverkusen for the Germany Bundesliga I – 21 of February

The latest news about Union Berlin x Bayer Leverkusen

Union Berlin: The main team of Union Berlin is facing difficulties, with seven games without a win, which led captain Christopher Trimmel to publicly admit that the team “did not implement the game plan” after a defeat in Hamburg. Under coach Urs Fischer, the team remains in ninth place in the Bundesliga, with hopes of climbing the standings through a semifinal appearance in the DFB-Pokal. The clubs fans also drew attention with a large choreographed display that resulted in a new sanction from the DFB. Off the field, long-time youth coach Ailien Poese will return to the clubs Nachwuchs-Leistungszentrum this summer. Forward Naika Reissner was called up to the Austrian womens national team, while defender Sophie Weidauer was selected for the German U-23 team. The Union womens team has also had recent highlights, including a decisive goal against Bayer Leverkusen and a comeback victory over SGS Essen in the Google Pixel Frauen-Bundesliga.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Bayer 04 Leverkusen strengthened its squad this winter by securing the loan of goalkeeper Jonas Omlin from Borussia Mönchengladbach until the end of the season to cover for the long-term absence of starter Mark Flekken. Omlin joined goalkeepers Janis Blaswich and Niklas Lomb, currently available at the club. Additionally, the Werkself confirmed that 17-year-old Serbian forward Aleksa Damjanović, an U-19 international currently at Red Star Belgrade, will join the team in the summer in a deal valued at around €5 million plus bonuses. Sporting director Simon Rolfes highlighted Damjanović as one of Europes most promising young attackers.

Table analysis for the match between Union Berlin x Bayer Leverkusen

Union Berlin: Union Berlin is in 10th place with 25 points, occupying an intermediate position in the table. Although not yet threatened by relegation, it is also not close to European competition spots, holding a relatively comfortable position but far from the top positions. With the current round in an advanced stage of the championship, this game is important for Union Berlin to maintain stability in the table and try to improve their point difference to secure a safer and more comfortable position at the top of the mid-table.

Bayer Leverkusen: Bayer Leverkusen is in 6th place with 39 points, fighting directly for a spot in the Conference League, which guarantees international competition. They are well positioned to enter European competitions, and a victory in this match will be crucial to keep fighting for continental spots, and they may even aim for a better placement. This game is very important for Leverkusen, as they cannot afford to lose points to prevent competitors close in the standings from gaining ground.

Summary: The match is of moderate importance for Union Berlin, which seeks safety in the table, and highly important for Bayer Leverkusen, which fights to secure a place in international competitions. Therefore, the game carries significant weight for Leverkusen and a more moderate relevance for Union Berlin.

Analysis of odds and handicap movement for Union Berlin x Bayer Leverkusen

Before confirming your prediction, it is worth taking a look at how the odds have moved since the market opened. When the market adjusts the price (even slightly) it is usually because money flowed in, new information emerged or the bookmakers recalibrated their risk.

Below you will find a summary comparing opening odds with current odds in the main markets for Union Berlin x Bayer Leverkusen (1X2, handicap and goals).

Tips for the Match Odds market for Union Berlin x Bayer Leverkusen

When the best bet on Union Berlin x Bayer Leverkusen is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1483644 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Is it worth betting on Union Berlin?

🔵 Union Berlin: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 33.09% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.95. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 330 times – this would give you a profit of $643.50
• And would lose other 670 times – having a loss of -$670.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$26.50.

Should you bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 30.36% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.35. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 300 times – having a profit of $705.00;
• And would have lost other 700 times – with a loss of -$700.00 because of them.

It is a low stake bet, since after all you would have an final expected profit of just 💰$5.00. Which is not even that worthy considering the risk!

Should you bet on Bayer Leverkusen?

🔴 Bayer Leverkusen: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 36.55% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.30. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 370 times – this would give you a profit of $481.00
• And would lose other 630 times – losing -$630.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$149.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Union Berlin x Bayer Leverkusen

The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.25 Union Berlin
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Union Berlin x Bayer Leverkusen

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is +0.25 Union Berlin and the available handicap to bet at the moment is +0.25 Union Berlin.

Since there is not big differences between the handicap offered by bookies and the one suggested by our algorithm, we can consider that there is no value to bet on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Union Berlin x Bayer Leverkusen

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 3.00 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.50 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.50, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.

FAQs: Frequently asked questions about the prediction for Union Berlin x Bayer Leverkusen