Union Berlin x Bayer Leverkusen Betting tips for November 30 in Germany Bundesliga I

Our betting tip for Union Berlin x Bayer Leverkusen, Saturday, 30/11/2024

📅 30/11/2024 14:30

Union Berlin 4.60

X 3.85

Bayer Leverkusen 1.73

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Union Berlin x Bayer Leverkusen:

🔮 Union Berlin wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Union Berlin, you can win up to $2300.00!

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Some important points for the tip for Union Berlin x Bayer Leverkusen: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Union Berlin in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $226.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Bayer Leverkusen in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500. 👉 In the last 4 head-to-head matches between Union Berlin x Bayer Leverkusen, with Union Berlin as the home team, they finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 5 matches as the away team, Bayer Leverkusen conceded at least 1 goal(s).

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Analysis from Union Berlin x Bayer Leverkusen for the Germany Bundesliga I – 30 of November

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Union Berlin x Bayer Leverkusen right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1229690 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Union Berlin x Bayer Leverkusen

Is it a good idea to bet on Union Berlin?

🔵 Union Berlin: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 24.87%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 4.60. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 250 times – this would give you a profit of $900.00
• And would lose other 750 times – having a loss of -$750.00 with them.

So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$150.00.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 19.53% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.85. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 200 times – profiting $570.00;
• And would have lost other 800 times – with a loss of -$800.00 because of them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$230.00.

Should you bet on Bayer Leverkusen?

🔴 Bayer Leverkusen: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 55.61%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.73. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 560 times – having a profit of $408.80;
• And would lose other 440 times – having a loss of -$440.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$31.20.

Handicaps analysis for the match Union Berlin x Bayer Leverkusen

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.25 Union Berlin
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Union Berlin x Bayer Leverkusen

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be +0.25 Union Berlin, and the current handicap offered by bookies is +0.75 Union Berlin.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: +0.75 Union Berlin.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Union Berlin x Bayer Leverkusen

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.50 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 3.00 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.50, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: – 3.00 goals.