VfB Stuttgart x Bayern Munich Betting tips for December 6 in Germany Bundesliga I

Our betting tip for VfB Stuttgart x Bayern Munich, Saturday, 6/12/2025

📅 6/12/2025 14:30

VfB Stuttgart 5.36

X 4.90

Bayern Munich 1.46

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for VfB Stuttgart x Bayern Munich:

🔮 Bayern Munich wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Bayern Munich, you can win up to $730.00!

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Or access: https://www.bet365.com 

The main points for the tip for VfB Stuttgart x Bayern Munich:

👉 If you had bet $100 on VfB Stuttgart in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $326.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Bayern Munich in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $7.0.
👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team, VfB Stuttgart scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 9 matches as the away team, Bayern Munich scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team against Bayern Munich, VfB Stuttgart scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 9 Bayern Munich matches as the away team, it finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 5 head-to-head matches between VfB Stuttgart x Bayern Munich, with VfB Stuttgart as the home team, they finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 5 matches as the away team, Bayern Munich conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Playing as the home team, VfB Stuttgart conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 5 head-to-head against Bayern Munich.
👉 Bayern Munich is a team that likes ball possession. In its last 3 away matches, it had at least 60.00% of possession.
👉 VfB Stuttgart is good playing home: it has 5 wins in a row in its last matches at home.

🤖 Critical analysis from ChatGPT on our prediction for VfB Stuttgart vs Bayern Munich:

Lets analyze the match between VfB Stuttgart and Bayern Munich at the MHP Arena, the official stadium of Stuttgart, which guarantees the home team the advantage of playing on their field. Stuttgart is performing very well at home, with 5 wins in their last 5 games at their stadium and an average of 2 goals scored per game against only 1 conceded. Bayern, on the other hand, shows a solid away record, with an average of 2 goals scored and conceded per match in recent away games.

The median odds indicate a big disparity: Stuttgart to win at 5.3, a draw at 4.85, and Bayern to win at just 1.46 — reflecting the clear favoritism towards the visitors.

Calculating the implied probabilities from the median odds gives us:

• Stuttgart win: ~18.87%
• Draw: ~20.62%
• Bayern win: ~68.49%

The sum of these probabilities exceeds 100% due to the house margin (about 108%), so normalizing to a total of 100% yields:

• Stuttgart win: ~17.47%
• Draw: ~19.10%
• Bayern win: ~63.43%

By analyzing recent offensive and defensive stats of the teams in the Bundesliga, along with the higher ball possession (59% for Stuttgart against the usual strong Bavarian attacks), we can slightly adjust these probabilities to reflect a bit more balance in the game:

• Your fair probability estimate:

• Stuttgart wins: about 22%, as their home strength is notable;

• Draw: considering solid defenses and recent balanced history, about 23%.

• Bayern wins: still a strong favorite but not absolute due to the good form of the Bavarians at home — about 55%.

Thus, fair odds would be approximately:

• Fair odds for Bayern Munich victory around @1.82
• Fair draw @4.35
• Fair Stuttgart victory @4.55

It is clear that the final market odds (visitor win @1.45) are undervaluing the risk for bettors; while the odds for a draw (@5) or a home win (@5.75) seem overestimated.

Evaluating expected value (EV):
– Visiting team win has a significant positive EV (~+17%), confirming it as an interesting bet.
– Draw and home win have negative EV according to our calculations.

📰Regarding recent news, both teams are on winning streaks from important victories in European national cups – VfB advanced in the DFB-Pokal quarterfinals with a good performance even without some key players; Bayern won dramatic matches showing resilience despite their recent defeat in the Champions League where Neuer made admitted mistakes but remains the starter.

📈Analyzing the table – although exact data has not been provided here – we know from tradition that Bayern is among the leaders seeking to maintain dominance, while Stuttgart fights firmly within the top or upper middle positions trying to establish itself as a competitive force in the German league this season.

💡Final conclusion:
The Bets Kenya model clearly suggests betting on the away victory with a positive expected value (+17%). I fully agree! Despite that, I emphasize caution as the scenario shows a real possibility for surprises and draws given the good offensive and defensive form of the local team.
My suggestion is to bet on Bayern Munich’s victory for statistical safety + high expected value.
🔥Bet on the Bavarian favoritism here! Current odds offer a good margin compared to the adjusted real probability.
Good luck!⚽️🍀

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Analysis from VfB Stuttgart x Bayern Munich for the Germany Bundesliga I – 6 of December

When the best bet on VfB Stuttgart x Bayern Munich is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1449132 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Latest news on VfB Stuttgart x Bayern Munich

VfB Stuttgart: VfB Stuttgart advanced to the quarter-finals of the DFB-Pokal by defeating VfL Bochum 2-0 on December 3, 2025, in Bochum, taking advantage of an early own goal by Philipp Strompf and his subsequent expulsion, while Deniz Undav scored the second goal; the Swabians also started their campaign in the 2025-26 Europa League with a 2-1 victory over Celta Vigo from La Liga, a performance praised by coach Sebastian Hoeneß despite Finn Jeltschs injury in the first half.

Bayern Munich: Bayern Munich recently secured a dramatic 3-2 victory over Union Berlin in the DFB-Pokal quarter-finals on December 3, 2025, with striker Harry Kane expressing relief despite a controversial penalty, while sporting director Max Eberl praised the teams fighting spirit; a week earlier, the Bavarians recovered from a deficit to claim their 11th Bundesliga win of the season on November 29, 2025, turning the game against St. Pauli thanks to an equalizer from Raphael Guerreiro and late goals from Luis Diaz and Nicolas Jackson, and in the Champions League, they suffered a 3-1 defeat to Arsenal on November 26, 2025, a match where goalkeeper Manuel Neuer admitted mistakes, but the club captain confirmed Neuer will remain in the squad at least until next Monday.

Table analysis for the game between VfB Stuttgart and Bayern Munich

VfB Stuttgart: VfB Stuttgart is in 6th place with 22 points, aiming to secure a spot in the Conference League. With only 4 points difference from the teams in positions that guarantee the more traditional European competitions, this match is important to try to close the gap to the leaders and confirm their presence on the continental stage next season. An away victory against the leader Bayern Munich could be a big boost for the team.

Bayern Munich: Bayern Munich is in the top spot of the league with 34 points, still undefeated with 11 wins and 1 draw. Their main goal is to secure the Bundesliga title, and facing a top-table opponent is an opportunity to consolidate or extend their lead. Maintaining perfect performance is vital to stay ahead of direct competitors, making this match very important for the home team.

Summary: The game is important for both teams: for Bayern Munich, its a chance to reinforce their leadership in the quest for the title, and for VfB Stuttgart, its a crucial opportunity to get closer to the European competition zone and secure better conditions in the final stretch of the Bundesliga. ⚽🔥

Tips for the Match Odds market for VfB Stuttgart x Bayern Munich

Is it a good idea to bet on VfB Stuttgart?

🔵 VfB Stuttgart: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 9.33% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 5.36. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 90 times – profiting $392.40;
• And would lose other 910 times – losing -$910.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$517.60.

Should you bet on draw?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 9.5%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 4.90. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 100 times – profiting $390.00;
• And would have lost other 900 times – with a loss of -$900.00 because of them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$510.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on Bayern Munich?

🔴 Bayern Munich: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 81.17% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.46. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 810 times – this would give you a profit of $372.60
• And would lose other 190 times – having a loss of -$190.00 with them.

That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$182.60.

Handicaps analysis for the match VfB Stuttgart x Bayern Munich

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.75 VfB Stuttgart
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for VfB Stuttgart x Bayern Munich

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be +0.75 VfB Stuttgart, and the current handicap offered by bookies is +1.25 VfB Stuttgart.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.50, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: +1.25 VfB Stuttgart.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for VfB Stuttgart x Bayern Munich

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 3.00 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 3.50 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: – 3.50 goals.