VfB Stuttgart x TSG Hoffenheim Betting tips for December 20 in Germany Bundesliga I
| 📅 20/12/2025 14:30 |
 VfB Stuttgart1.92 |
X 3.82 |
TSG Hoffenheim  3.46 |
This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for VfB Stuttgart x TSG Hoffenheim:
🔮 TSG Hoffenheim wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on TSG Hoffenheim, you can win up to $1730.00!
The main points for the tip for VfB Stuttgart x TSG Hoffenheim:
👉 If you had bet $100 on VfB Stuttgart in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $123.0.
👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against TSG Hoffenheim, VfB Stuttgart scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 VfB Stuttgart matches as the home team, it finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team, VfB Stuttgart conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 4 matches as the away team, TSG Hoffenheim conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Playing as the home team, VfB Stuttgart conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 4 head-to-head against TSG Hoffenheim.
🤖 What does ChatGPT say about our prediction for VfB Stuttgart vs TSG Hoffenheim?
Lets analyze the match between VfB Stuttgart and TSG Hoffenheim at MHP Arena, the stadium where Stuttgart actually plays at home, which is a positive point for them. Stuttgart comes from a strong home streak with 4 wins and only 1 loss in the last 5 games, scoring an average of 2 goals per game and also conceding about 2 goals. Hoffenheim has a reasonable performance away, with an average of 2 goals scored and only 1 conceded in recent league matches.
The median odds indicate a slight favoritism for Stuttgart (1.93), followed by a draw (3.85) and Hoffenheim win (3.47). Converting these odds into normalized implied probabilities gives approximately: Stuttgart Win ~49%, Draw ~25%, Hoffenheim Win ~26%. Considering the balanced offensive stats but the clear advantage of Stuttgart playing at home, my adjusted estimate would be close to this.
The Bets Kenya model suggests higher predicted odds for both teams (around 2.36 for Stuttgart and 2.46 for Hoffenheim) and a very high odds for a draw (5.84), indicating it sees less chance of this outcome compared to traditional bookmakers — this seems to underestimate the realistic possibility of a draw given the teams’ competitiveness.
📰 Recent news shows VfB Stuttgart is on a roll after a convincing away win against Werder Bremen, showing resilience despite the temporary absence of midfielder Bilal El Khannouss due to the African Cup of Nations — but their squad seems solid at the moment.
Hoffenheim is focused on the transfer window with no major reinforcements confirmed yet; their veteran striker Kramaric maintains high ambitions for the Champions League, but lacks immediate impact in the squad according to latest info.
📈 In the league table, both teams are close in the race for mid-table or higher positions — this increases motivation on both sides for important points at this stage of the season.
Given all this, I see greater value in betting on the visitor Hoffenheim’s victory at the final odds (~3.4), as my fair calculation indicates a probability close to the model but with a final odds better than the market’s fair value; this results in a positive expected value above +5% calculated.
I partially disagree with the model’s suggested bet favoring the visitor’s win but with odds too low in the final market; I also disagree with its low assessment of a draw or pessimism about their chances to score strongly here.
Recommended Bet: Hoffenheim Victory
Estimated expected value: +7%
This choice takes advantage of the visitors’ good offensive chances combined with the teams’ current motivation and recent good form even away.
Good luck! ⚽🔥
Looking for another bookie to bet on VfB Stuttgart x TSG Hoffenheim?
If you want other options of bookmakers to bet on VfB Stuttgart x TSG Hoffenheim, no problem. Right below you have the sports betting sites that we used the most in 2025. You will be in good hands on any of them, just pick your favorite and start betting:
Analysis from VfB Stuttgart x TSG Hoffenheim for the Germany Bundesliga I – 20 of December
🏟️ VfB Stuttgart X TSG Hoffenheim – Germany Bundesliga I
📅 20 of December, 2025 – 14:30
🔵 VfB Stuttgart – Winning probability: 42.81% | Fair line: 2.34
⚪ Tied game – Probability of tied match: 17.35% | Fair line: 5.76
🔴 TSG Hoffenheim – Winning probability: 39.84% | Fair line: 2.51
⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 VfB Stuttgart
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 10.25 corner kicks
A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between VfB Stuttgart and TSG Hoffenheim.
To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1454884 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:
The latest news about VfB Stuttgart x TSG Hoffenheim
VfB Stuttgart: VfB Stuttgart has won again with a convincing 4-0 away victory against Werder Bremen, highlighted by Jamie Lewelings rocket in the first half and a well-finished counterattack for the second goal, while a potential goal by Deniz Undav at three minutes was disallowed after a lengthy VAR review for marginal offside. Coach Sebastian Hoeneß praised the performance as a “small trauma” already overcome by the team and highlighted the teams resilience after a dangerous start, but also noted that midfielder Bilal El Khannouss will remain absent at least until mid-January due to his participation in the African Cup, with his loan from Aston Villa including a €17 million purchase option that could extend his contract until 2030.
TSG Hoffenheim: TSG Hoffenheim recently confirmed that an internal audit revealed no irregularities, and the club is focused on strengthening its squad for the second half of the season, with the winter transfer window still open but no signings announced for forward Andrej Werner; meanwhile, midfielder Kevin Kabaks goal sparked a confident reaction from the starting team early on, and veteran forward Andrej Kramaric continues to express his ambition to reach the Champions League, while club youth prospects like Potulski were highlighted after a podium appearance, and overall, the latest winter transfer overview shows Hoffenheim is still awaiting a high-impact signing.
Germany Bundesliga I table analysis for VfB Stuttgart x TSG Hoffenheim
VfB Stuttgart: Stuttgart is in 6th place with 25 points, just 1 point behind Hoffenheim, which is in 5th. This match is crucial for Stuttgart, as a victory could secure or strengthen their position for European competitions like the Conference League. Being very close to Hoffenheim, Stuttgart has everything to fight tooth and nail to surpass the direct rival this round. 🔥
TSG Hoffenheim: Hoffenheim is in 5th place with 26 points and is fighting for a spot in the UEFA Europa League. The difference with Stuttgart is minimal, only 1 point, so this game is very important to maintain their position in the zone that grants access to the continental tournament. A win would solidify their direct qualification to Europe, making this match very important for Hoffenheim too! ⚽️
Summary: This is a high-stakes game for both teams, as they are very close in the table and compete for direct spots in European competitions. A positive result could make all the difference in the season for Stuttgart and Hoffenheim! 🔥⚽️
Tips for the 1×2 market for VfB Stuttgart x TSG Hoffenheim
Is it worth betting on VfB Stuttgart?
🔵 VfB Stuttgart: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 42.81% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.92. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 430 times – this would give you a profit of $395.60
- And would lose other 570 times – having a loss of -$570.00 with them.
That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$174.40.
Is betting on draw worth it?
⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 17.35% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.82. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 170 times – this would give you a profit of $479.40
- And would have lost other 830 times – with a loss of -$830.00 because of them.
We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$350.60.
Should you bet on TSG Hoffenheim?
🔴 TSG Hoffenheim: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 39.84% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.46. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 400 times – profiting $984.00;
- And would lose other 600 times – losing -$600.00 with them.
So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$384.00.
Handicaps analysis for the match VfB Stuttgart x TSG Hoffenheim
Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.
Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 VfB Stuttgart
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for VfB Stuttgart x TSG Hoffenheim
⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 0.0 VfB Stuttgart and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.5 VfB Stuttgart.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.5 TSG Hoffenheim.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for VfB Stuttgart x TSG Hoffenheim
⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.00 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 3.25 goals.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: – 3.25 goals.
