VfB Stuttgart x Wolfsburg Betting tips for March 1 in Germany Bundesliga I

Our betting tip for VfB Stuttgart x Wolfsburg, Sunday, 1/3/2026

📅 1/3/2026 14:30

VfB Stuttgart 1.52

X 4.49

Wolfsburg 5.25

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for VfB Stuttgart x Wolfsburg:

🔮 Wolfsburg wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Wolfsburg, you can win up to $2625.00!

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Some important points for the tip for VfB Stuttgart x Wolfsburg:

👉 If you had bet $100 on VfB Stuttgart in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-72.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Wolfsburg in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-160.0.
👉 In the last 7 matches as the away team, Wolfsburg conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Playing as the home team, VfB Stuttgart conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 5 head-to-head against Wolfsburg.

🤖 ChatGPT analysis on the prediction for VfB Stuttgart vs Wolfsburg:

Lets analyze the match between VfB Stuttgart and Wolfsburg at MHP Arena, which is Stuttgarts usual stadium, ensuring a home advantage for them. ⚽

📊 Recent statistics show that Stuttgart has a solid performance at home, averaging 2 goals scored per game and only 1 conceded. They dominate possession (62%) and shoot much more (19 shots per game vs. 11 for the opponent). Wolfsburg, on the other hand, struggles away, conceding an average of 3 goals per match and scoring just 1. Additionally, their possession is low (41%), indicating less control of the ball.

📈 In the league table, although exact data isnt detailed here, we know Stuttgart is mid-table seeking stability, while Wolfsburg fights to escape the danger zone at the bottom — increasing pressure on the visitors to seek points away.

📰 News reinforces this analysis: Stuttgart is on a high after reaching the DFB-Pokal semi-final and features key players like Chris Führich shining; Wolfsburg faces a tough time after a recent home defeat and internal concerns about Bundesliga survival.

Analyzing the median odds from bookmakers: Stuttgarts win is priced around 1.52 (implied probability ~65.8%), draw at 4.49 (~22.3%), and Wolfsburgs win at 5.25 (~19%). After normalization for margin, approximate fair probabilities are: Stuttgart ~63%, draw ~21%, Wolfsburg ~16%.

Based on these adjusted probabilities along with teams offensive/defensive stats and current context:

• Stuttgart Win: high probability due to the technical/tactical dominance shown in recent stats;
• Draw: possible but less likely given the offensive profile of the home team;
• Wolfsburg Win: unlikely considering defensive fragility away and poor recent form.

The fair odds calculated for Stuttgarts victory are close to 1.58, aligned with the final odds offered (~1.55), indicating little room for positive expected value in this bet.

However, our internal model suggests a higher predicted odds for the home team (~1.94) but with a negative expected value (-20%), while indicating a very high expected value (+60%) on an away win — a contradiction to the realistic scenario where visitors are clearly disadvantaged statistically and contextually.

Therefore, I strongly disagree with the optimistic model suggestion for betting on Wolfsburg; it overestimates their chances in a tough scenario even against a technically stronger team at their usual stadium.

Suggestion:

• Betting on VfB Stuttgarts win may be safe but with little positive expected value given current odds;
• Betting on a draw or especially an away win does not offer good cost-benefit based on combined analysis of real stats + news + emotional/motivational context;
• Be cautious as bets should also consider external factors like final lineups or weather conditions near the match date.

⚠️ Conclusion:

The recommended bet is VfB Stuttgarts victory due to demonstrated technical consistency combined with strong home advantage at MHP Arena.
Avoid risky bets on visitors despite the tempting odds indicated by Bets Kenya.
Expected value is close to zero or slightly negative in the current options — so focus should be on safety rather than high profit in this match!

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Analysis from VfB Stuttgart x Wolfsburg for the Germany Bundesliga I – 1 of March

Latest news on VfB Stuttgart x Wolfsburg

VfB Stuttgart: VfB Stuttgart had a mixed start to 2026, with midfielder Chris Führich shining in a recent friendly loss against Celtic in Glasgow, while the club secured a spot in the DFB-Pokal semi-finals after a dramatic extra-time victory highlighted by a final pass from “Karazor”; former Stuttgart and Germany midfielder Sami Khedira spoke optimistically about the teams prospects in the Europa League, and coach Sebastian Hoeneß continues to lead a team that is mid-table in the Bundesliga, still working to strengthen the squad before the spring transfer window.

VfL Wolfsburg: VfL Wolfsburgs main team is facing a tough time in the 2025-26 Bundesliga, sliding to the bottom after a 2-3 home defeat to FC Augsburg, raising alarms among club management, as the team works to halt the decline and secure its top-flight status; off the field, long-time womens team director Ralf Kellermann announced his departure at the end of the season, marking a significant change for Wolfsburgs successful womens team, and the club has also been linked to a potential signing of a player based in the US, a transfer target that had already attracted interest during the summer window.

Table analysis for the match between VfB Stuttgart x Wolfsburg

VfB Stuttgart: Stuttgart is in 4th place in the Bundesliga, fighting for a direct spot in the Champions League. With 43 points, they are close to the 3rd position and can move up the table with a win, making this match very important to secure their place among the qualifiers for the main European competition. Every point can make a difference in this final stretch, so the team needs to give their best at home to avoid losing ground.

Wolfsburg: Wolfsburg is in 15th position, with only 20 points, very close to the relegation zone (16th with 20 points and 17th with 19 points). This match is crucial to escape relegation danger and try to secure their place in the Bundesliga. An away victory could provide an important breather for the team, which is fighting to move away from the bottom positions.

Summary: This is an important clash for both teams, but for completely different reasons: while Stuttgart seeks to consolidate a spot in the Champions League, Wolfsburg fights to escape relegation. A decisive game where every point counts! ⚽🔥

How the handicap and odds moved for VfB Stuttgart x Wolfsburg

One step many punters overlook is analysing the movement of odds and the handicap over time. Doing this gives a clearer idea of market expectations for the match between VfB Stuttgart x Wolfsburg.

Check the summary below that compares opening odds with current odds across the main markets: 1X2, handicap and goals.

Tips for the 1×2 market for VfB Stuttgart x Wolfsburg

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between VfB Stuttgart and Wolfsburg.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1488452 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Is betting on VfB Stuttgart worth it?

🔵 VfB Stuttgart: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 51.47% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.52. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 510 times – having a profit of $265.20;
• And would lose other 490 times – losing -$490.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$224.80.

Should you bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 16.52% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 4.49. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 170 times – profiting $593.30;
• And would lose other 830 times – losing -$830.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$236.70.

Is it a good idea to bet on Wolfsburg?

🔴 Wolfsburg: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 32.01% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 5.25. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 320 times – profiting $1360.00;
• And would lose other 680 times – losing -$680.00 with them.

That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$680.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match VfB Stuttgart x Wolfsburg

The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.0 VfB Stuttgart
⚽ Expected goals: 3.25 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for VfB Stuttgart x Wolfsburg

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -1.0 VfB Stuttgart, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -1.0 VfB Stuttgart.

The handicap that our algorithm found is the same as the bookies, which means that there is not any value to bet on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for VfB Stuttgart x Wolfsburg

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 3.25 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 3.25 goals.

Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Goals Handicap market.

FAQs: Frequently asked questions about the tip for VfB Stuttgart x Wolfsburg