AC Milan x Crvena Zvezda Betting tips for December 11 in UEFA Champions League
| 📅 11/12/2024 20:00 |
 AC Milan1.22 |
X 6.10 |
Crvena Zvezda  11.00 |
This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for AC Milan x Crvena Zvezda:
🔮 AC Milan wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on AC Milan, you can win up to $610.00!
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Important information for your tip for AC Milan x Crvena Zvezda: 👉 If you had bet $100 on AC Milan in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-96.0. |
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Analysis from AC Milan x Crvena Zvezda for the UEFA Champions League – 11 of December
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🏟️ AC Milan X Crvena Zvezda – UEFA Champions League |
Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for AC Milan x Crvena Zvezda right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.
And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1235636 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:
Tips for the Match Odds market for AC Milan x Crvena Zvezda
Should you bet on AC Milan?
🔵 AC Milan: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 92.96%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.22. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 930 times – profiting $204.60;
- And would lose other 70 times – losing -$70.00 with them.
It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$134.60.
Should you bet on draw?
⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 3.3% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 6.10. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 30 times – profiting $153.00;
- And would lose other 970 times – having a loss of -$970.00 with them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$817.00.
Should you bet on Crvena Zvezda?
🔴 Crvena Zvezda: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 3.74% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 11.00. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would have hit 40 times – having a profit of $400.00;
- And would lose other 960 times – losing -$960.00 with them.
That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$560.00.
Handicaps analysis for the match AC Milan x Crvena Zvezda
Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..
Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.5 AC Milan
⚽ Expected goals: 3.25 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for AC Milan x Crvena Zvezda
⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -1.5 AC Milan, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -1.75 AC Milan.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 1.75 Crvena Zvezda.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for AC Milan x Crvena Zvezda
⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 3.25 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 3.00 goals.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 3.00 goals.
