Atalanta x Arsenal Betting tips for September 19 in UEFA Champions League

Our betting tip for Atalanta x Arsenal, Thursday, 19/9/2024

📅 19/9/2024 16:00

Atalanta 4.00

X 3.80

Arsenal 1.85

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Atalanta x Arsenal:

🔮 Arsenal wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Arsenal, you can win up to $925.00!

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The main points for the tip for Atalanta x Arsenal: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Atalanta in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $386.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Arsenal in each of its last 4 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $145.0. 👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team, Atalanta scored at least 2 goal(s). 👉 In the last 4 matches as the away team, Arsenal scored at least 1.0 goal(s). 👉 In the last 4 Atalanta matches as the home team, it finished over 2.5 goals.

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Analysis from Atalanta x Arsenal for the UEFA Champions League – 19 of September

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Atalanta x Arsenal right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1184054 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Atalanta x Arsenal

Should you bet on Atalanta?

🔵 Atalanta: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 21.12% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 4.00. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 210 times – profiting $630.00;
• And would lose other 790 times – losing -$790.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$160.00.

Should you bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 7.83% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.80. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 80 times – this would give you a profit of $224.00
• And would have lost other 920 times – with a loss of -$920.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$696.00.

Is it worth betting on Arsenal?

🔴 Arsenal: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 71.06%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.85. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 710 times – this would give you a profit of $603.50
• And would lose other 290 times – having a loss of -$290.00 with them.

So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$313.50.

Handicaps analysis for the match Atalanta x Arsenal

The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Atalanta
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Atalanta x Arsenal

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 0.0 Atalanta and the available handicap to bet at the moment is +0.5 Atalanta.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: +0.5 Atalanta.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Atalanta x Arsenal

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.75 goals.

Since there is not big differences between the handicap offered by bookies and the one suggested by our algorithm, we can consider that there is no value to bet on the Goals Handicap market.