Atalanta x Chelsea Betting tips for December 9 in UEFA Champions League

Our betting tip for Atalanta x Chelsea, Tuesday, 9/12/2025

📅 9/12/2025 20:00

Atalanta 3.28

X 3.42

Chelsea 2.10

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Atalanta x Chelsea:

🔮 Chelsea wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Chelsea, you can win up to $1050.00!

Make this bet on Bet365 now!

Or access: https://www.bet365.com 

Some important points for the tip for Atalanta x Chelsea:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Atalanta in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-188.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Chelsea in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-100.0.

🤖 ChatGPT’s take on our prediction for Atalanta vs Chelsea:

Lets analyze the match between Atalanta and Chelsea in the UEFA Champions League, which will be played at Gewiss Stadium, the traditional home of Atalanta in Bergamo. ⚽️

📈 Positioning analysis: Atalanta has been showing solid performance at home, averaging 1 goal scored and 1 conceded per game in recent matches. They have good ball possession (59%) and take quite a few shots (19 per game). Chelsea has similar numbers away from home, with a balanced average of goals scored and conceded, but slightly higher possession (60%). This indicates a balanced technical duel.

📰 Recent news: Atalanta has shown strength in Coppa Italia and Serie A recently, despite the loss to Hellas Verona which drew criticism from coach Palladino. The squad includes experienced players like De Ketelaere and Scamacca. On the other hand, Chelsea faces evident offensive difficulties in recent Premier League matches, including a heavy loss to Leeds and attack issues due to key injuries.

Based on median odds, the implied normalized probabilities are: Atalanta win ~28%, draw ~27%, Chelsea win ~45%. Considering recent team statistics — defensive-offensive balance but better form of the Italian team — I would adjust these probabilities to roughly: Atalanta win 32%, draw 30%, Chelsea win 38%. This reflects a slight advantage to the visiting team due to individual quality but recognizes the strong home factor of the Dea.

Calculating fair odds based on my analysis would suggest approximate fair odds: @3.13 for Atalanta win; @3.33 for draw; @2.63 for Chelsea win.

Looking at the final odds offered by bookmakers (@3.3 / @3.6 / @2.15), there is clear value in betting on the visitor according to the Bets Kenya model, which suggests very low odds (1.35), underestimating the real risk of this balanced match — my calculation indicates higher fair odds (~2.63). Therefore, there is a considerable positive expected value in betting against this low odd given by the model.

Suggestion: Betting on Chelseas victory might be tempting due to their technical quality even away from home; however, considering recent attacking problems of the Blues and moderate defensive/attacking strength of Atalanta playing at their historic Gewiss Stadium/New Balance Arena 🏟️, I see a better opportunity in betting on the draw or even a double chance involving the Italian team, seeking higher value in odds above 3.

Blindly betting on the low odd suggested by the Bets Kenya model doesnt seem prudent here due to underestimating the risks presented by recent news about Chelseas fragile offensive performance.

⚠️ My recommendation is caution! The scenario is too competitive to rely solely on the very low probabilities indicated by the model without considering the current context of the teams!

Do you want more options of bookies to bet on Atalanta x Chelsea?

If you already have an account on Bet365 or want other options of bookmakers, do not worry! This list below was carefully created taking you into consideration. These are the best betting sites analysed by us in 2025. You just have to click, deposit and bet:

Analysis from Atalanta x Chelsea for the UEFA Champions League – 9 of December

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Atalanta and Chelsea.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1450740 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Latest news on Atalanta x Chelsea

Atalanta: In early December 2025, Atalanta, coached by Raffaele Palladino, was busy both in Serie A and the Coppa Italia: a list of 24 players was announced for the away game against Hellas Verona on December 6, with young defender Giorgio Scalvini cleared to play and forward Kamaldeen Sulemana still out; however, the team lost 3-1 to Verona — a result Palladino strongly criticized, saying that the VAR decision on a handball should be simplified; just three days earlier, Dea started their Coppa Italia campaign with a 4-0 thrashing of Genoa, thanks to goals from Djimsiti, Roon, Pasalic, and Scamacca, and on November 30, they achieved a 2-0 Serie A victory over Fiorentina, with goals from Ibrahima Kossounou and Lookman; the current squad includes names like De Ketelaere, Krstović, Lookman, Scamacca, Zappacosta, de Roon, and Pasalic, among others.

Chelsea: Chelseas recent performance has been weak, with a 3-1 defeat to Leeds serving as a wake-up call for Enzo Marescas team and drawing criticism of the defense and goalkeeper, while the team was also without Moisés Caicedo and saw Cole Palmer make his first appearance in over two months coming off the bench; the Blues then drew 0-0 with Bournemouth, marking their first Premier League game without goals since August and highlighting a growing goal drought, and the clubs attacking issues extend to the womens team, where Mayra Ramírez remains out after surgery, Sam Kerr has played only 112 minutes this season, and forward Aggie Beever-Jones has gone seven games without scoring.

Table analysis for the match between Atalanta and Chelsea

No table analysis was provided for this match.

Tips for the 1×2 market for Atalanta x Chelsea

Is betting on Atalanta worth it?

🔵 Atalanta: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 16.65% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.28. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 170 times – this would give you a profit of $387.60
• And would have lost other 830 times – with a loss of -$830.00 because of them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$442.40.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 11.31% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.42. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 110 times – this would give you a profit of $266.20
• And would lose other 890 times – losing -$890.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$623.80.

Is it worth betting on Chelsea?

🔴 Chelsea: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 72.04% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.10. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 720 times – having a profit of $792.00;
• And would have lost other 280 times – with a loss of -$280.00 because of them.

It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$512.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Atalanta x Chelsea

The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.25 Atalanta
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Atalanta x Chelsea

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is +0.25 Atalanta and the available handicap to bet at the moment is +0.25 Atalanta.

Since there is not big differences between the handicap offered by bookies and the one suggested by our algorithm, we can consider that there is no value to bet on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Atalanta x Chelsea

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.75 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.75 goals.

The handicap that our algorithm found is the same as the bookies, which means that there is not any value to bet on the Goals Handicap market.