Borussia Dortmund x Atalanta Betting tips for February 17 in UEFA Champions League

Our betting tip for Borussia Dortmund x Atalanta, Tuesday, 17/2/2026

📅 17/2/2026 20:00

Borussia Dortmund 2.05

X 3.50

Atalanta 3.35

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Borussia Dortmund x Atalanta:

🔮 Borussia Dortmund wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Borussia Dortmund, you can win up to $1025.00!

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Important information for your tip for Borussia Dortmund x Atalanta:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Borussia Dortmund in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $57.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Atalanta in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-42.0.
👉 In the last 6 Atalanta matches as the away team, it finished under 2.5 goals.

🤖 What does ChatGPT say about our prediction for Borussia Dortmund vs Atalanta?

Lets analyze the match between Borussia Dortmund and Atalanta in the UEFA Champions League, which will take place at Signal Iduna Park, Borussia Dortmunds historic stadium with a capacity of over 81,000 fans, giving a clear home advantage to the German team.

📈 Table analysis and recent performance: Borussia Dortmund is in great form, with 4 wins and only 1 loss in their last 5 home games, scoring a high average of goals (13 in 5 games) and conceding few (6). Additionally, in the Bundesliga they are pressuring Bayern Munich for the top spot. Atalanta, on the other hand, shows a more irregular away performance: scoring fewer goals (5 in 5 games), conceding fewer (2), but with a mixed record of draws and recent losses. In Serie A, they face significant physical challenges such as muscle injuries and surgeries that may impact their offensive output.

📰 Team news: Dortmund is on a positive streak highlighted by coach Niko Kovac, especially with striker Serhou Guirassy who has been decisive. Conversely, Atalanta faces key physical issues like absences or limitations of forwards Scamacca and Raspadori, plus the surgery of midfielder De Ketelaere. This could reduce their offensive capacity against a strong home team.

Based on median odds, the approximate normalized implied probabilities are: Dortmund win ~47%, draw ~28%, Atalanta win ~30%. Considering Dortmunds superior offensive stats at Signal Iduna Park — where they have higher averages in shots and possession — combined with Atalantas unfavorable physical condition, my fair estimate slightly adjusts these probabilities to: Borussia Dortmund win ~50%, draw ~27%, Atalanta win ~23%.

Thus, the fair odds would be approximately: Borussia Dortmund @2.00; Draw @3.70; Atalanta @4.35.

Analyzing the expected value of the final odds offered by bookmakers compared to my fair odds:

• Borussia Dortmund EV ≈ ((2.05 / 2) -1)*100 = +2.5%
• Draw EV ≈ ((3.5 /3.7)-1)*100 = -5%
• Atalanta EV ≈ ((3.5 /4.35)-1)*100 = -19%

Only betting on Borussia Dortmunds victory shows a positive expected value, but low (+2.5%), indicating limited margin for consistent profit based on this detailed analysis.

About the Bets Kenya model:
The model suggests higher value in betting on the visiting team (Atalanta) with EV above +10%. I disagree because recent statistical data clearly favors the home team both offensively and defensively; plus, the news indicates significant physical problems in the visiting squad that could impair their performance in this tough away match.
Therefore, I recommend betting on Borussia Dortmunds victory even with a modest expected value (+2.5%), as it aligns better with the current reality of the teams considering all factors involved.
If you want greater security without high risk, consider avoiding other options with significant negative expected values.

⚽ In summary: moderate confidence in a strong offensive and defensive performance by Borussia Dortmund playing in front of their passionate fans at Signal Iduna Park against a physically depleted visiting team.
Good luck! 🍀

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Analysis from Borussia Dortmund x Atalanta for the UEFA Champions League – 17 of February

The latest news about Borussia Dortmund x Atalanta

Borussia Dortmund: Borussia Dortmund continued their excellent run in the Bundesliga with a 4-0 victory over 1. FSV Mainz 05 on February 13, 2026, marking their sixth consecutive win and reducing the gap to Bayern Munich to three points; Julian Ryerson was the main creator, providing four assists, while Serhou Guirassy scored two goals, prompting coach Niko Kovac to praise Guirassys importance and highlight the need to protect such a prolific striker.

Atalanta: Atalanta is entering an intense period with the Serie A match against Lazio at the Olimpico on Saturday, February 14, after a mixed weekend that saw Ederson take responsibility for a late penalty and earn the player of the match award, while the recent goal by forward Krstović changed the offensive hierarchy. The squad is dealing with some physical concerns: forward Gianluca Scamacca, who suffered a hip injury, returned to limited training on January 21 and should be fit for the trip to Lazio, while forward Andrea Raspadori left the field due to a muscle problem in the recent match. Additionally, midfielder Youri De Ketelaere underwent surgery, with his recovery time still being assessed, and the club is also preparing for the Coppa Italia round of 16 match against Roma scheduled for March 4 at the Olimpico.

UEFA Champions League table analysis for Borussia Dortmund x Atalanta

Borussia Dortmund: Borussia Dortmund is in 17th place with 11 points and is in a tricky situation, close to the bottom of the table. This game against Atalanta is very important for Dortmund because a victory could help improve their position and prevent them from sinking further into the lower part of the standings. Even though they are not mathematically relegated yet, the team needs to earn points to avoid missing out on qualification for the next stages of the Champions League.

Atalanta: Atalanta is in 15th place with 13 points, slightly ahead of Dortmund but still far from comfortable positions on the table. Like Dortmund, Atalanta relies heavily on the results of upcoming matches to move away from danger and try to advance to the decisive phases. The head-to-head match is crucial for Atalanta to maintain this small advantage and get closer to qualifying for the next stage of the competition.

Summary: The game is very important for both teams, which are in a delicate situation in the standings and need points to improve their chances in the championship. It is a valuable direct confrontation in the fight for positions that can still guarantee continuation in the Champions League, making the match decisive for Dortmund and Atalanta. ⚽🔥

How the handicap and odds moved for Borussia Dortmund x Atalanta

One step many punters overlook is analysing the movement of odds and the handicap over time. Doing this gives a clearer idea of market expectations for the match between Borussia Dortmund x Atalanta.

Check the summary below that compares opening odds with current odds across the main markets: 1X2, handicap and goals.

Tips for the 1×2 market for Borussia Dortmund x Atalanta

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Borussia Dortmund and Atalanta.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1481545 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Is it worth betting on Borussia Dortmund?

🔵 Borussia Dortmund: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 52.57% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.05. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 530 times – having a profit of $556.50;
• And would have lost other 470 times – with a loss of -$470.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$86.50.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 22.75%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.50. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 230 times – this would give you a profit of $575.00
• And would lose other 770 times – having a loss of -$770.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$195.00.

Is betting on Atalanta worth it?

🔴 Atalanta: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 24.68%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.35. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 250 times – this would give you a profit of $587.50
• And would have lost other 750 times – with a loss of -$750.00 because of them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$162.50.

Handicaps analysis for the match Borussia Dortmund x Atalanta

The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Borussia Dortmund
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Borussia Dortmund x Atalanta

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.5 Borussia Dortmund, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.25 Borussia Dortmund.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.25 Borussia Dortmund.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Borussia Dortmund x Atalanta

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.50 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.75 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: – 2.75 goals.

FAQs: Frequently asked questions about the tip for Borussia Dortmund x Atalanta