Newcastle x FK Qarabag Betting tips for February 24 in UEFA Champions League

Our betting tip for Newcastle x FK Qarabag, Tuesday, 24/2/2026

📅 24/2/2026 20:00

Newcastle 1.11

X 9.50

FK Qarabag 17.56

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Newcastle x FK Qarabag:

👎 Unfortunately, we do not have any positive expected value tips for Newcastle x FK Qarabag

The main points for the tip for Newcastle x FK Qarabag:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Newcastle in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-364.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on FK Qarabag in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-71.0.
👉 In the last 3 matches as the away team, FK Qarabag scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 FK Qarabag is a team that likes ball possession. In its last 3 away matches, it had at least 63.00% of possession.

🤖 What does ChatGPT say about our prediction for Newcastle vs FK Qarabag?

📈 Positioning Analysis: Newcastle arrives for this match with a mixed recent home record, having scored an average of 3 goals per game in the last 5 home matches, but also conceding nearly the same number (3.2). FK Qarabag has shown strength away in the same league, but concedes more goals than it scores (average of 1.4 goals scored against 2.4). Newcastle has a higher average possession (56%) and more shots per game, indicating control and offensive pressure at their stadium.

📰 Relevant News: Newcastle was recently defeated by Manchester City but showed continental power by beating Qarabag 6-0 in the first Champions League match. Coach Eddie Howe acknowledges recent defensive errors but remains confident in the squad. On the other hand, Qarabag is riding high after a dominant home victory and has a healthy squad for the decisive match.

Odds Probability Analysis:
The normalized implicit probabilities of median odds are approximately: Newcastle Win ~82%, Draw ~9%, Qarabag Win ~9%. Considering the offensive and defensive stats of the teams along with recent news — especially Newcastle’s previous thrashing of Qarabag — my fair estimate would be close to: Newcastle Win ~80%, Draw ~12%, Qarabag Win ~8%. This indicates strong favoritism for the Magpies playing at St James Park.

Fair Odds Evaluation:
The fair odds calculated would be around 1.25 for Newcastle win, 8.33 for a draw, and 12.5 for Qarabag win considering current technical and motivational factors.

Expected Value (EV) Analysis:
Comparing the final odds with my fair odds:
– EV for Newcastle win is low (~ -10%) because bookmakers offer very low odds;
– EV for a draw is negative (< -50%), no value;
– EV for Qarabag win shows significant positive value (>20%) due to the high odds offered despite the low estimated probability.

💡 Final Suggestion: Despite the strong favorable trend for Newcastle based on recent technical and historical analysis (including the previous thrashing), bookmakers are offering very high odds for Qarabag’s victory, which could represent an interesting value bet if you seek higher risk/reward.
The Bets Kenya model suggests betting on the away win with high expected value (~21%). I fully agree with this suggestion! It’s a bold guess but based on the offered odds versus realistic probability.

⚽ In summary: Betting on Qarabag can be risky but offers excellent potential return 💰🔥! For those who prefer maximum security, betting on Newcastle makes sense but is less profitable due to very low odds.

Looking for another bookie to bet on Newcastle x FK Qarabag?

If you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Newcastle x FK Qarabag, no problem. Right below you have the sports betting sites that we used the most in 2026. You will be in good hands on any of them, just pick your favorite and start betting:

Analysis from Newcastle x FK Qarabag for the UEFA Champions League – 24 of February

Latest news on Newcastle x FK Qarabag

Newcastle United: Newcastle United was defeated 2‑1 by Manchester City in their Premier League match on February 21, 2026, with Nico O’Reilly scoring two goals in the first half and Lewis Hall netting the Magpies only goal; coach Eddie Howe praised the teams physicality, aggressiveness, and overall effort, acknowledging defensive errors that cost points and noting it was the third defeat in four games, but he remains satisfied with the teams direction. Additionally, the team showed continental strength by demolishing Qarabag 6‑0 in a Champions League match in early February, while Newcastles U-21 goalkeeper even scored from inside his own half in a separate youth match.

Qarabag: FK Qarabag is entering the UEFA Champions League playoff stage in great form, with coach Qurban Qurbanov expected to have the main squad fully healthy and without major injury concerns before their crucial match against Newcastle United at Tofiq Bahramov Stadium in Baku. In the first leg, on February 18, 2026, they achieved a commanding 6‑1 victory, highlighted by Newcastles Anthony Gordon, who became only the second player to score four goals in the first half of a Champions League knockout match. Despite the comprehensive victory, Newcastle coach Eddie Howe warned that the tie is not decided, emphasizing the importance of the return leg at St James’ Park. Qarabag’s strong home performance and recent advancement to the knockout stage mark a historic moment for the Azerbaijani club.

Table analysis for the match between Newcastle x FK Qarabag

Newcastle: The team is in 12th place with 14 points, fighting for a spot in the qualification playoffs. The match against FK Qarabag is important for Newcastle to try to get closer to the teams above in the table and secure their stay among the qualifiers for continental competitions. With a small points difference from other competitors, winning is essential to keep the chances alive.

FK Qarabag: The team is in 22nd place with 10 points and a significant gap to the playoff spots, also being in a lower classification zone, with no clear possibility of advancing to better competitions. This match should not be decisive for FK Qarabag, which will likely fight for final positions or try to avoid relegation, but with little immediate pressure to move up.

Summary: The game is quite important for Newcastle, which needs the points to keep alive the fight for spots in European competitions. For FK Qarabag, the match has less impact on classification, being more irrelevant in terms of direct objectives on the table.

Analysis of odds and handicap movement for Newcastle x FK Qarabag

We will also look at how the odds and handicap have evolved over time. This approach helps capture the market sentiment for the fixture between Newcastle x FK Qarabag.

Below you will find a summary comparing opening odds with current odds in the principal markets: 1X2, handicap and goals.

Tips for the 1×2 market for Newcastle x FK Qarabag

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Newcastle and FK Qarabag.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1486078 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Should you bet on Newcastle?

🔵 Newcastle: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 90.54% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.11. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 910 times – having a profit of $100.10;
• And would lose other 90 times – losing -$90.00 with them.

Although this bet has some value, notice that the expected profit is just 💰$10.10, which is not worth the risk in our point of view.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 2.73% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 9.50. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 30 times – profiting $255.00;
• And would have lost other 970 times – with a loss of -$970.00 because of them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$715.00.

Is betting on FK Qarabag worth it?

🔴 FK Qarabag: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 6.73% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 17.56. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 70 times – having a profit of $1159.20;
• And would lose other 930 times – having a loss of -$930.00 with them.

It is a low stake bet, since after all you would have an final expected profit of just 💰$229.20. Which is not even that worthy considering the risk!

Handicaps analysis for the match Newcastle x FK Qarabag

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -2.0 Newcastle
⚽ Expected goals: 3.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Newcastle x FK Qarabag

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -2.0 Newcastle, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -2.5 Newcastle.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 2.5 FK Qarabag.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Newcastle x FK Qarabag

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 3.50 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 3.50 goals.

FAQs: Frequently asked questions about the tip for Newcastle x FK Qarabag