PSG x Monaco Betting tips for February 25 in UEFA Champions League

Our betting tip for PSG x Monaco, Wednesday, 25/2/2026

📅 25/2/2026 20:00

PSG 1.28

X 5.95

Monaco 8.45

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for PSG x Monaco:

🔮 Monaco wins the match
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Important information for your tip for PSG x Monaco:

👉 If you had bet $100 on PSG in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-111.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Monaco in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-67.0.
👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team, PSG scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against Monaco, PSG scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 PSG has not lost any of the last 5 head-to-head matches against Monaco playing at home.

🤖 What’s ChatGPT’s opinion on our prediction for PSG vs Monaco?

Lets analyze the match between Paris Saint-Germain and AS Monaco at Parc des Princes, a traditional PSG venue since 1974, where the home team has been performing strongly lately. PSG comes from a solid home streak with an average of 2 goals scored per game and only 0 conceded, also dominating stats like ball possession (61%) and shots (20 per game). Monaco shows more modest numbers away, with fewer goals scored (1) and higher defensive vulnerability (2 goals conceded).

Median odds indicate a clear favoritism for PSG: win at 1.28, draw at 5.85, and Monaco win at 8.1. Converting these odds into normalized implied probabilities gives approximately: PSG win around 72%, draw about 16%, and Monaco win near 12%. Considering PSGs strong offensive stats at home against an away defense that concedes many goals, my fair estimate for the probabilities would be close to these or even slightly more favorable to the home team.

The Bets Kenya model suggests less aggressive predicted odds for the favorite (home_odds_pred ~1.39) but with a negative expected value (-8.75%), while indicating a significant positive value in the away win bet (+54%). This forecast seems inconsistent with recent stats and current team contexts.

📰 News: PSG is focused on fighting for the Ligue 1 title and showed resilience by turning around a tough game against Monaco recently in the Champions League, despite dealing with key injuries like Dembélés absence. Monaco has had an irregular performance in the national league but achieved important recent wins; however, they face evident defensive difficulties in away matches.

📈 Positional Analysis: PSG leads or is very close to the Ligue 1 standings while fighting for the title; this boosts their motivation to stay in good form also in European competitions, playing at their historic stadium full of passionate fans — a factor that weighs heavily in their favor.

Given all this, I believe the fair odds should favor Paris Saint-Germain even more — perhaps around 1.25-1.30 for their victory — reflecting their recent technical/tactical dominance combined with the clear advantage of playing at Parc des Princes.
Therefore, I see no real value in the bets suggested by the Bets Kenya model, especially on the away side, which seems overestimated given current conditions.
My recommendation is to bet on Paris Saint-Germains win with a moderate positive expectation (~6-7% EV), taking advantage of their current strong form and the natural pressure to qualify in this decisive Champions League phase.

Summary:
PSG as absolute favorites playing at home in a historic stadium where they dominate recent numbers;
Monaco vulnerable defensively away;
Bets Kenya model overestimates the away chance generating high illusory EV;
My bet: Victory for Paris Saint-Germain 🏆⚽️

Looking for another bookie to bet on PSG x Monaco?

If you want to take a look at more options of betting websites, we, from the Clube, have listed our favorites for you. Right below you can check the best kenyan betting sites from 2026, carefully analysed by us. Pick yours and start betting now on PSG x Monaco:

Analysis from PSG x Monaco for the UEFA Champions League – 25 of February

Latest news on the match between PSG and Monaco

Paris Saint-Germain: Paris Saint-Germain is currently involved in a three-way race for the Ligue 1 title with Lens and Lyon, trailing Lens by just one point as they prepare to host Metz, the last-placed team. Luis Enrique states he cannot rest key players like Vitinha and Warren Zaire-Emery despite fatigue concerns. The team showed resilience in the Champions League by overturning a 2-0 first-leg deficit against Monaco, with Desire Doué scoring twice after replacing injured Ousmane Dembélé, who is expected to miss the second leg due to a new injury. Off the field, the club faces a legal dispute with former striker Kylian Mbappé over unpaid judicial fine of 2 million euros, which has led to a threat of a second court official visit to Parc des Princes. In the transfer market, PSG has formally requested information from Manchester City if Erling Haaland becomes available, while also dealing with the recent departure of goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma to Manchester City and the poor performance of current goalkeepers.

AS Monaco: AS Monaco has shown a mixed performance in February 2026, achieving a dramatic 3-2 victory over Ligue 1 leader RC Lens at Stade Bollaert-Delelis, tying with Lille in fifth place and recording their third win in four league matches, while dropping to 10th in the national table after a poor start to the year. In the first leg of the UEFA Champions League qualifiers on February 17, they were defeated 3-2 by Paris Saint-Germain at Stade Louis II, despite an early double goal from Manchester Uniteds Folarin Balogun giving Monaco the lead, a red card to Aleksandr Golovin, and two decisive goals from substitute Désiré Doué for PSG, leaving the second leg to be played at Parc des Princes with Monaco seeking to overturn the deficit.

Table analysis for the match between PSG and Monaco

PSG: PSG is in 11th place with 14 points, fighting to secure a spot in the Champions League playoffs. Considering that the 10th place teams have 15 points, every upcoming game is crucial for PSG to try to get closer and ensure continuation in the European competition. This match is very important for them, as a victory could keep their chances of advancing alive.

Monaco: Monaco is in 21st place with 10 points, quite far from the points needed to reach the playoffs or even a direct spot. Although mathematically there might be a chance of recovery, practically the situation is very difficult. Therefore, for Monaco, this game has reduced importance in terms of classification, serving more as an opportunity to gain experience and try to avoid an even bigger drop in the table.

Summary: The match is mainly important for PSG, which still dreams of qualifying for the decisive stages of the Champions League. For Monaco, the game has less relevance in the standings race, although it is always an opportunity to improve the team and results.

How the handicap and odds moved for PSG x Monaco

We will also look at how the odds and handicap have evolved over time. This approach helps capture the market sentiment for the fixture between PSG x Monaco.

Below you will find a summary comparing opening odds with current odds in the principal markets: 1X2, handicap and goals.

Tips for the Match Odds market for PSG x Monaco

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between PSG and Monaco.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1487255 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Should you bet on PSG?

🔵 PSG: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 76.01% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.28. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 760 times – having a profit of $212.80;
• And would have lost other 240 times – with a loss of -$240.00 because of them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$27.20.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 10.32% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 5.95. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 100 times – this would give you a profit of $495.00
• And would lose other 900 times – losing -$900.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$405.00.

Is it worth betting on Monaco?

🔴 Monaco: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 13.67%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 8.45. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 140 times – having a profit of $1043.00;
• And would have lost other 860 times – with a loss of -$860.00 because of them.

It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$183.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match PSG x Monaco

The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.75 PSG
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for PSG x Monaco

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -1.75 PSG and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -1.5 PSG.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -1.5 PSG.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for PSG x Monaco

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 3.00 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 3.50 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.50, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: – 3.50 goals.

FAQs: Common questions about the tip for PSG x Monaco