Botafogo x Penarol Betting tips for October 24 in Copa Libertadores
| 📅 24/10/2024 00:30 |
 Botafogo1.44 |
X 3.70 |
Penarol  7.50 |
Our algorithm has selected this tip for Botafogo x Penarol:
🔮 Botafogo wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Botafogo, you can win up to $720.00!
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Some important points for the tip for Botafogo x Penarol: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Botafogo in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-178.0. |
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Analysis from Botafogo x Penarol for the Copa Libertadores – 24 of October
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🏟️ Botafogo X Penarol – Copa Libertadores |
A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Botafogo and Penarol.
To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1207819 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:
Tips for the Match Odds market for Botafogo x Penarol
Should you bet on Botafogo?
🔵 Botafogo: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 84.12% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.44. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would have hit 840 times – having a profit of $369.60;
- And would lose other 160 times – having a loss of -$160.00 with them.
Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$209.60.
Is betting on draw worth it?
⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 11.37% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.70. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would have hit 110 times – having a profit of $297.00;
- And would have lost other 890 times – with a loss of -$890.00 because of them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$593.00.
Should you bet on Penarol?
🔴 Penarol: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 4.52% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 7.50. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 50 times – this would give you a profit of $325.00
- And would have lost other 950 times – with a loss of -$950.00 because of them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$625.00.
Handicaps analysis for the match Botafogo x Penarol
Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.
Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.0 Botafogo
⚽ Expected goals: 3.50 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Botafogo x Penarol
⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -1.0 Botafogo and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -1.0 Botafogo.
Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Botafogo x Penarol
⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 3.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.25 goals.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 1.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.
