Botafogo x Sao Paulo Betting tips for September 18 in Copa Libertadores

Our betting tip for Botafogo x Sao Paulo, Wednesday, 18/9/2024

📅 18/9/2024 21:30

Botafogo 1.85

X 3.39

Sao Paulo 4.11

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Botafogo x Sao Paulo:

🔮 Botafogo wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Botafogo, you can win up to $925.00!

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Some important points for the tip for Botafogo x Sao Paulo: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Botafogo in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $292.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Sao Paulo in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-25.0. 👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team, Botafogo scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against Sao Paulo, Botafogo scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 3 Sao Paulo matches as the away team, it finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 Botafogo is good playing home: it has 4 wins in a row in its last matches at home. 👉 Botafogo has won all the last 3 matches playing at home against Sao Paulo.

Do you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Botafogo x Sao Paulo?

If you want to take a look at more options of betting websites, we, from the Clube, have listed our favorites for you. Right below you can check the best kenyan betting sites from 2024, carefully analysed by us. Pick yours and start betting now on Botafogo x Sao Paulo:

Analysis from Botafogo x Sao Paulo for the Copa Libertadores – 18 of September

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Botafogo x Sao Paulo right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1184048 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Botafogo x Sao Paulo

Is it worth betting on Botafogo?

🔵 Botafogo: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 64.29% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.85. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 640 times – this would give you a profit of $544.00
• And would lose other 360 times – losing -$360.00 with them.

That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$184.00.

Is it worth betting on draw?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 22.62%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.39. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 230 times – this would give you a profit of $549.70
• And would lose other 770 times – having a loss of -$770.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$220.30.

Is it worth betting on Sao Paulo?

🔴 Sao Paulo: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 13.09% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 4.11. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 130 times – profiting $404.30;
• And would lose other 870 times – losing -$870.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$465.70.

Handicaps analysis for the match Botafogo x Sao Paulo

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.0 Botafogo
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Botafogo x Sao Paulo

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -1.0 Botafogo and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.5 Botafogo.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.50, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.5 Botafogo.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Botafogo x Sao Paulo

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.50 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.00 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.00 goals.