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Home » Predictions » Copa Libertadores » Fluminense x Atletico Mineiro Betting tips for September 18 in Copa Libertadores
Wednesday, 18 September 2024, 19h00 Copa Libertadores
Fluminense Fluminense
PREDICTION Fluminense wins Probability 52% 1 X 2
Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro
ODD: @2.4 Don't miss this prediction!

Fluminense x Atletico Mineiro Betting tips for September 18 in Copa Libertadores

Our betting tip for Fluminense x Atletico Mineiro, Wednesday, 18/9/2024
📅 18/9/2024
19:00
Fluminense Fluminense
2.40
X
3.08
Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro
3.00

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Fluminense x Atletico Mineiro:

🔮 Fluminense wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Fluminense, you can win up to $1200.00!

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The main points for the tip for Fluminense x Atletico Mineiro:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Fluminense in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $175.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Atletico Mineiro in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $245.0.
👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against Atletico Mineiro, Fluminense scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Playing as the home team, Fluminense conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 5 head-to-head against Atletico Mineiro.
👉 Fluminense has not lost any of the last 3 head-to-head matches against Atletico Mineiro playing at home.

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Summary

Do you want other suggestions of bookmakers to bet on Fluminense x Atletico Mineiro?

If you already have an account on Bet365 or want other options of bookmakers, do not worry! This list below was carefully created taking you into consideration. These are the best betting sites analysed by us in 2024. You just have to click, deposit and bet:

Analysis from Fluminense x Atletico Mineiro for the Copa Libertadores – 18 of September

🏟️ Fluminense X Atletico Mineiro – Copa Libertadores
📅 18 of September, 2024 – 19:00
🔵 Fluminense – Winning probability: 52.42% | Fair line: 1.91
Tied game – Probability of tied match: 21.06% | Fair line: 4.75
🔴 Atletico Mineiro – Winning probability: 26.52% | Fair line: 3.77
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Fluminense
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 9.25 corner kicks

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Fluminense and Atletico Mineiro.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1183835 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Fluminense x Atletico Mineiro

Is it worth betting on Fluminense?

🔵 Fluminense: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 52.42% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.40. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 520 times – profiting $728.00;
  • And would lose other 480 times – losing -$480.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$248.00.

Is betting on draw worth it?

draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 21.06% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.08. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 210 times – this would give you a profit of $436.80
  • And would lose other 790 times – having a loss of -$790.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$353.20.

Is it worth betting on Atletico Mineiro?

🔴 Atletico Mineiro: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 26.52% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.00. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 270 times – this would give you a profit of $540.00
  • And would have lost other 730 times – with a loss of -$730.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$190.00.

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Handicaps analysis for the match Fluminense x Atletico Mineiro

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Fluminense
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Fluminense x Atletico Mineiro

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.25 Fluminense, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.25 Fluminense.

Since there is not big differences between the handicap offered by bookies and the one suggested by our algorithm, we can consider that there is no value to bet on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Fluminense x Atletico Mineiro

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.00 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.00 goals.

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Written by

Autor
Humberto Alves

Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.

> Check other content created by Humberto Alves
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