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Home » Predictions » Copa Libertadores » Penarol x Flamengo Betting tips for September 26 in Copa Libertadores
Thursday, 26 September 2024, 19h00 Copa Libertadores
Penarol Penarol
PREDICTION Flamengo Wins Probability 47% 1 X 2
Flamengo Flamengo
ODD: @2.41 Don't miss this prediction!

Penarol x Flamengo Betting tips for September 26 in Copa Libertadores

Our betting tip for Penarol x Flamengo, Thursday, 26/9/2024
📅 26/9/2024
19:00
Penarol Penarol
2.93
X
3.10
Flamengo Flamengo
2.41

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Penarol x Flamengo:

🔮 Flamengo wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Flamengo, you can win up to $1205.00!

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Some important points for the tip for Penarol x Flamengo:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Penarol in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $94.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Flamengo in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-190.0.
👉 Penarol did not concede a goal in the last 5 matches as home team.
👉 In the last 3 matches as the away team, Flamengo scored at least 1 goal(s).

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Summary

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Analysis from Penarol x Flamengo for the Copa Libertadores – 26 of September

🏟️ Penarol X Flamengo – Copa Libertadores
📅 26 of September, 2024 – 19:00
🔵 Penarol – Winning probability: 29.06% | Fair line: 3.44
Tied game – Probability of tied match: 23.20% | Fair line: 4.31
🔴 Flamengo – Winning probability: 47.74% | Fair line: 2.09
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Penarol
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 9.25 corner kicks

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Penarol and Flamengo.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1189218 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Penarol x Flamengo

Should you bet on Penarol?

🔵 Penarol: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 29.06%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.93. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 290 times – this would give you a profit of $559.70
  • And would lose other 710 times – losing -$710.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$150.30.

Should you bet on draw?

draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 23.2% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.10. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 230 times – profiting $483.00;
  • And would have lost other 770 times – with a loss of -$770.00 because of them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$287.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on Flamengo?

🔴 Flamengo: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 47.74%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.41. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would have hit 480 times – having a profit of $676.80;
  • And would have lost other 520 times – with a loss of -$520.00 because of them.

That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$156.80.

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Handicaps analysis for the match Penarol x Flamengo

The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Penarol
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Penarol x Flamengo

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.5 Penarol, and the current handicap offered by bookies is +0.25 Penarol.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.75, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: +0.25 Penarol.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Penarol x Flamengo

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.50 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.

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Written by

Autor
Humberto Alves

Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.

> Check other content created by Humberto Alves
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