Arsenal x Chelsea Betting tips for March 1 in England Premier League

Our betting tip for Arsenal x Chelsea, Sunday, 1/3/2026

📅 1/3/2026 16:30

Arsenal 1.64

X 3.90

Chelsea 5.00

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Arsenal x Chelsea:

🔮 Chelsea wins the match
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Some important points for the tip for Arsenal x Chelsea:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Arsenal in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $8.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Chelsea in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $204.0.
👉 Arsenal did not concede a goal in the last 3 matches as home team.
👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team, Arsenal scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against Chelsea, Arsenal scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Arsenal is good playing home: it has 4 wins in a row in its last matches at home.
👉 Arsenal has won all the last 5 matches playing at home against Chelsea.

🤖 Critical insight from ChatGPT on the prediction for Arsenal vs Chelsea:

Lets analyze the showdown between Arsenal and Chelsea at Emirates Stadium, home of Arsenal, which has been a real cauldron for the Gunners. The modern stadium with a capacity of over 60,000 fans definitely gives an advantage to the home team.

📈 Table analysis: Arsenal leads the Premier League with a solid campaign, opening a five-point lead after a thrashing against Tottenham and maintaining a strong rhythm in recent matches. Chelsea, on the other hand, faces recent difficulties, especially away from home and with key absences like Wesley Fofana suspended and Marc Cucurella injured. This heavily weighs on the Blues morale.

📰 News: Arsenal is riding high on impressive offensive performances, with a high goal average (3 goals per game at home) and game control (61% possession). Viktor Gyokeres has been a standout in attack. Conversely, Chelsea suffers from crucial injuries and defensive inconsistency away from home, along with increasing pressure on their coach Liam Rosenior.

Based on median odds, the implied normalized probabilities are: Arsenal win ~56%, draw ~23%, Chelsea win ~21%. Considering Arsenals superior offensive stats at home (average 16 shots vs 7 conceded), higher ball possession (61% vs 39%), better recent home form (4 wins in last 5), and Chelseas defensive struggles away (average 1 goal conceded but with key absences), my fair estimate would be: Arsenal win ~58%, draw ~22%, Chelsea win ~20%.

Fair odds would be approximately: 1.72 for Arsenal win, 4.55 for draw, 5.0 for Chelsea win. Compared to the final odds offered by bookmakers: 1.6 / 3.8 / 5.5 respectively.

Expected value calculations suggest betting on the away win could have positive value according to the Bets Kenya model (+22%), but I disagree due to key absences on the visiting team and the strength shown by Arsenal playing in their packed stadium — a scenario that strongly favors the home team in this crucial London derby in the Premier League.

Final suggestion: Betting on Arsenals victory is safer considering all technical, tactical, and emotional factors involved — even if the odds are slightly lower (~1.6). Betting on the visitor seems too risky given recent news about critical injuries in the royal blue squad.
Lets take this opportunity to make a solid bet! ⚽🔥

Looking for another bookie to bet on Arsenal x Chelsea?

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Analysis from Arsenal x Chelsea for the England Premier League – 1 of March

Latest news about Arsenal x Chelsea

Arsenal: Arsenal continued their strong title push in late February 2026, crushing Tottenham Hotspur 4-1 in the North London derby and opening a five-point lead at the top of the Premier League after a 2-2 draw against Wolves the previous week. Striker Viktor Gyokeres had his best performance for the club, scoring two goals and highlighting his impact on the edges of the box. Gary Neville praised the Gunners for responding to questions about their mentality and for resisting Manchester City’s pressure, noting that Arsenal now faces a crucial match against Chelsea next weekend and a tough away game against Leeds for the title contenders, while the squad remains focused on maintaining concentration and rhythm as the season enters its decisive phase.

Chelsea: Chelsea faces a crucial run of games with Liam Rosenior’s team missing several key players: Wesley Fofana is suspended for the upcoming away match against Arsenal, Marc Cucurella remains injured, and Denis Estevao is doubtful, while Romeo Lavia has returned to the bench after his injury recovery period. The Blues have struggled at Stamford Bridge, losing points in eight of their fourteen home games and suffering a record defeat to Burnley, which drew criticism of their discipline and consistency. Joao Pedro has stood out as a promising forward under Rosenior’s management, showing improved goal metrics compared to his previous season at Brighton.

Table analysis for the match between Arsenal x Chelsea

Arsenal: Arsenal is leading the league with 61 points, 5 points ahead of the second place. This match is crucial for the team to maintain their advantage at the top of the table, especially since there is still room for competitors to catch up. Securing three points against a direct rival can solidify the leadership in the decisive phase of the tournament. Therefore, the game is of high importance for Arsenal in the title race 🏆.

Chelsea: Chelsea is in 5th position with 45 points, fighting for a spot in the UEFA Europa League. With the gap to 4th place (Manchester United with 48 points) still small, this match is a key opportunity for Chelsea to climb the table and secure an important continental qualification for next season. The game carries significant weight for Chelsea to keep the dream of Europe alive.

Summary: The match is very important for both teams: Arsenal aims to maintain the lead, and Chelsea fights to climb the table and secure a spot in European competitions. A decisive and exciting confrontation! ⚽🔥

Odds and handicap movements for Arsenal x Chelsea

It is always useful to analyse how the odds and the handicap behaved over time. This helps us understand where the betting market is heading and what punters expect for the match between Arsenal x Chelsea.

Below you will see a summary that compares the opening odds with the current odds in the main markets: 1X2, handicap and goals.

Tips for the 1×2 market for Arsenal x Chelsea

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Arsenal and Chelsea.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1488452 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Is betting on Arsenal worth it?

🔵 Arsenal: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 53.9% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.64. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 540 times – having a profit of $345.60;
• And would lose other 460 times – losing -$460.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$114.40.

Is it worth betting on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 23.86% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.90. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 240 times – profiting $696.00;
• And would lose other 760 times – losing -$760.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$64.00.

Should you bet on Chelsea?

🔴 Chelsea: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 22.24% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 5.00. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 220 times – this would give you a profit of $880.00
• And would lose other 780 times – losing -$780.00 with them.

That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$100.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Arsenal x Chelsea

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Arsenal
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Arsenal x Chelsea

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.5 Arsenal, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -1.0 Arsenal.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 1.0 Chelsea.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Arsenal x Chelsea

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.00 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.75 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.75 goals.

FAQs: Common questions about the tip for Arsenal x Chelsea