Aston Villa x Arsenal Betting tips for December 6 in England Premier League

Our betting tip for Aston Villa x Arsenal, Saturday, 6/12/2025

📅 6/12/2025 12:30

Aston Villa 4.33

X 3.50

Arsenal 1.83

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Aston Villa x Arsenal:

🔮 Arsenal wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Arsenal, you can win up to $915.00!

Make this bet on Bet365 now!

Or access: https://www.bet365.com 

Some important points for the tip for Aston Villa x Arsenal:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Aston Villa in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $595.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Arsenal in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-102.0.
👉 In the last 8 matches as the home team, Aston Villa scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 7 matches as the away team, Arsenal scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Aston Villa is good playing home: it has 8 wins in a row in its last matches at home.
👉 In the last 7 road matches, Arsenal has not lost any of them.

🤖 ChatGPT analysis on the prediction for Aston Villa vs Arsenal:

Lets analyze the match between Aston Villa and Arsenal at Villa Park, Aston Villas traditional stadium, known for being a real fortress for the home team. 🏟️

📈 Aston Villa is in great form, holding third place in the Premier League and showing impressive home performance with 5 wins in the last 5 games, averaging 2 goals per match and conceding only 0.2 goals. The team has an efficient long-distance attack and a solid defense, plus the passionate support of the fans at Villa Park.

Arsenal leads the table with a five-point advantage after a convincing win against Brentford. Away, they maintain a recent unbeaten streak with 3 wins and 2 draws in the last league games, also scoring around 2 goals per game but conceding more (1 goal on average). The visiting team has greater ball possession (60%) and dangerous shots (6 on target), indicating control of the game even away.

Analyzing the median odds: Aston Villa victory is quoted at 4.33 (implied probability ~23%), draw at 3.55 (~28%), and Arsenal victory at 1.82 (~55%). After normalization to adjust the house margin, the approximate fair probabilities are: Aston Villa ~24%, draw ~29%, Arsenal ~47%.

Considering recent team statistics — strong home campaign for Aston Villa versus Arsenals offensive consistency — I would estimate fair probabilities as: Aston Villa win ~30%, draw ~25%, Arsenal win ~45%. This reflects the weight of the home advantage combined with the visitors superior quality.

Crossing this with the final odds offered (4.33 for Villa; 3.3 draw; 1.85 Arsenal), betting on the visitors win does not offer a significant positive expected value due to the low predicted fair odds (~1/0.45=2.22 vs the actual final odds around 1.85). Betting on the home team or draw might have some value if we consider the stadiums “strength” + the excellent current form of the Villans.

📰 News confirms that the starting goalkeeper Emi Martínez is injured but effectively replaced by Marco Bizot; meanwhile, Arsenal recovers key players like Gabriel Jesus and Kai Havertz to strengthen their attack — but still faces challenges away against strong opponents like this.

Therefore, my suggestion is caution with simple bets on the straight win — prefer alternative markets like both teams to score or Asian handicap favoring Villa due to their strong defensive home advantage combined with their good offensive form.

Our model at Bets Kenya overestimates the visitors win chance (predicted odds very low) while slightly underestimating the real chances of the Villans playing in their historic stadium where they are almost unbeatable recently — I disagree with this exaggerated forecast for the visitors!

Suggested bet: Favor betting on Aston Villa + Draw, seeking odds above the fair ones calculated here.
The expected value calculated as negative for a direct bet on the visitor (~-55% EV) confirms high risk.
So, focusing on safe options or multiple markets is the best choice! ⚽💡

Do you want more options of bookies to bet on Aston Villa x Arsenal?

Maybe you already have an account on Bet365, but that is not a problem! We, from the Clube da Aposta, have been on this business since 2010 and know which bookies are trustworthy or not. Check out our list of the best betting sites in Kenya from 2025, you just have to click and bet:

Analysis from Aston Villa x Arsenal for the England Premier League – 6 of December

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Aston Villa x Arsenal right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1449132 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Latest news about Aston Villa x Arsenal

Aston Villa: Aston Villa is on a high-performance streak, currently third in the Premier League, just six points behind leaders Arsenal after a dramatic 4-3 victory over Brighton on December 3, 2025. The team overturned a two-goal deficit with a header from Amadou Onana at 60 minutes, a first-time shot from Donyell Malen to make it 3-2, and a penalty goal from Ollie Watkins to seal the win. Goalkeeper Emi Martínez did not participate due to a back injury sustained during warm-up, replaced by Marco Bizot. The team benefited from an exceptional performance after European matches, winning all five games following European/Conference League fixtures, showing the highest positive points difference per game in the league, driven by an effective long-distance attack that has already scored nine goals from outside the box this season.

Arsenal: Arsenal extended their lead at the top of the Premier League to five points after a 2-0 win over Brentford at the Emirates, with Mikel Merino opening the scoring and Bukayo Saka netting the second. Merino’s goal rate and overall influence led many to consider him the most effective forward on the team. Coach Arteta praised the team’s performance and expressed pride in the players. The club confirmed Viktor Gyökeres, Gabriel Jesus, and Kai Havertz are fit to play again, while Rice downplayed injury concerns ahead of the next trip to Aston Villa.

Table analysis for the match between Aston Villa and Arsenal

Aston Villa: Aston Villa is in 3rd place with 27 points, directly fighting for a Champions League spot, as they are very close to the league leaders (Arsenal with 33 points and Manchester City with 28 points). This match is very important for Aston Villa because a victory could even bring them closer to the top, increasing their chances of qualifying for the main European competition. Additionally, staying firmly in the qualification zone is essential, and the direct confrontation against the leader makes this match decisive to maintain strength in the race. ⚽🔥

Arsenal: Arsenal is leading the Premier League with 33 points, 5 ahead of Manchester City and 6 ahead of Aston Villa. Still, the team needs to maintain good performance to secure the title, especially because the competition is fierce. Facing a direct rival in the fight for a Champions League spot makes this game very important for Arsenal, which wants to consolidate its advantage and stay at the top. A win here helps keep the rhythm and pressure on their pursuers. 🏆💪

Summary: This is a very important game for both teams, as it can lead to significant changes in the league standings and in securing a Champions League spot. The direct confrontation increases the excitement and relevance of the match for both Aston Villa and Arsenal. ⚔️

Tips for the 1×2 market for Aston Villa x Arsenal

Is betting on Aston Villa worth it?

🔵 Aston Villa: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 11.05% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 4.33. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 110 times – having a profit of $366.30;
• And would lose other 890 times – losing -$890.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$523.70.

Should you bet on draw?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 13.86%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.50. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 140 times – this would give you a profit of $350.00
• And would lose other 860 times – having a loss of -$860.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$510.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on Arsenal?

🔴 Arsenal: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 75.09% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.83. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 750 times – having a profit of $622.50;
• And would lose other 250 times – losing -$250.00 with them.

So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$372.50.

Handicaps analysis for the match Aston Villa x Arsenal

The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.75 Aston Villa
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Aston Villa x Arsenal

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is +0.75 Aston Villa and the available handicap to bet at the moment is +0.75 Aston Villa.

Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Aston Villa x Arsenal

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.75 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.50 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.