Aston Villa x Manchester City Betting tips for December 21 in England Premier League
| 📅 21/12/2024 12:30 |
 Aston Villa3.40 |
X 3.80 |
Manchester City  1.99 |
This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Aston Villa x Manchester City:
🔮 Aston Villa wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Aston Villa, you can win up to $1700.00!
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The main points for the tip for Aston Villa x Manchester City: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Aston Villa in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-197.0. |
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Analysis from Aston Villa x Manchester City for the England Premier League – 21 of December
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🏟️ Aston Villa X Manchester City – England Premier League |
A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Aston Villa and Manchester City.
To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1238880 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:
Tips for the Match Odds market for Aston Villa x Manchester City
Is betting on Aston Villa worth it?
🔵 Aston Villa: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 37.48%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.40. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 370 times – this would give you a profit of $888.00
- And would lose other 630 times – losing -$630.00 with them.
That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$258.00.
Is betting on draw worth it?
⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 15.6% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.80. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would have hit 160 times – having a profit of $448.00;
- And would have lost other 840 times – with a loss of -$840.00 because of them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$392.00.
Is betting on Manchester City worth it?
🔴 Manchester City: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 46.92% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.99. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would have hit 470 times – having a profit of $465.30;
- And would lose other 530 times – having a loss of -$530.00 with them.
Although this bet has some value, notice that the expected profit is just 💰$64.70, which is not worth the risk in our point of view.
Handicaps analysis for the match Aston Villa x Manchester City
Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.
These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Aston Villa
⚽ Expected goals: 3.25 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Aston Villa x Manchester City
⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.25 Aston Villa, and the current handicap offered by bookies is +0.75 Aston Villa.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -1.00. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: +0.75 Aston Villa.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Aston Villa x Manchester City
⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.25 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 3.25 goals.
Since there is not big differences between the handicap offered by bookies and the one suggested by our algorithm, we can consider that there is no value to bet on the Goals Handicap market.
