Bournemouth x Aston Villa Betting tips for February 7 in England Premier League

Our betting tip for Bournemouth x Aston Villa, Saturday, 7/2/2026

📅 7/2/2026 15:00

Bournemouth 2.60

X 3.60

Aston Villa 2.45

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Bournemouth x Aston Villa:

🔮 Tied Match
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Some important points for the tip for Bournemouth x Aston Villa:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Bournemouth in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $95.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Aston Villa in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $400.0.
👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team, Bournemouth scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 matches as the away team, Aston Villa scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 Bournemouth matches as the home team, it finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team, Bournemouth conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 4 road matches, Aston Villa has not lost any of them.

🤖 What does ChatGPT think about our prediction for Bournemouth vs Aston Villa?

Lets analyze the match between Bournemouth and Aston Villa at the Vitality Stadium, Bournemouths home ground, which has shown solid performance recently. The home team scored 9 goals and conceded 8 in the last 5 home games, with 2 wins, 2 draws, and only one loss. Meanwhile, Aston Villa away scored fewer goals (6) and conceded nearly the same (5), with a balanced record of wins and losses.

📈 In terms of offensive statistics, Bournemouth averages 13 shots per game at home compared to 14 for Aston Villa away. However, the visiting team shows more accuracy in shots on target (5 vs 3). Ball possession favors Aston Villa slightly (50% vs 45%), but this doesnt necessarily translate into a clear advantage.

📰 The news indicates Bournemouth has been unbeaten for five league games and made key signings like Rayan from Vasco da Gama for £30 million, along with the return of Leon Bailey. Despite significant departures like Semenyo to Manchester City, they maintain good recent form. On the other hand, Aston Villa has some concerns: Ollie Watkins is injured and his availability is uncertain; they also suffered a recent defeat to Brentford in a game marked by a red card.

Analyzing the adjusted median odds by the house margin: the normalized implied probability is approximately Bournemouth win ~37%, draw ~27%, Aston Villa win ~36%. Considering recent team statistics and injury news, my fair estimate would be close to:

• Bournemouth win: ~38%
• Draw: ~28%
• Aston Villa win: ~34%

Thus, fair odds would be around:

• Bournemouth: 2.63
• Draw: 3.57
• Aston Villa: 2.94

Comparing with the final odds offered by bookmakers — Bournemouth win at 2.7; Draw at 3.6; Aston Villa win at 2.4 — we see value in betting on the draw or the home win (Bournemouth). The Bets Kenya model suggests positive value only for the draw (+11%) but assigns negative value to both teams wins (-18% for home and -6% for away).

In my view, I partially agree with the model by dismissing bets on the away win due to their key injury and recent emotional instability after a red card; however, I also see potential value in a moderate bet on Bournemouths win considering their good form at home and recent reinforcements.

Suggestion: bet on Bournemouth or draw, seeking security in a double result or even exploring higher odds on the simple draw, which has a good expected value (~+10%) according to our calculation. Avoid betting directly on the away win given the high risk without Ollie Watkins available.

Good luck! ⚽🍀

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Analysis from Bournemouth x Aston Villa for the England Premier League – 7 of February

Latest news on Bournemouth x Aston Villa

Bournemouth: Bournemouth had a strong start in 2026, remaining unbeaten in five league matches and comfortably above the relegation zone, highlighted by a 2-0 victory over Wolves on January 31; the clubs transfer market activities in January were intense, with the signing of young Brazilian Rayan from Vasco da Gama for £30.3 million (including a release clause of £86.3 million), Hungarian midfielder Alex Toth from Ferencvaros, and the return of Leon Bailey after his loan at Roma, while forward Antoine Semenyo moved to Manchester City via a release clause and Donyel Malen went to Roma, leaving Tammy Abraham as the preferred center forward; despite injuries to Justin Kluivert and the loss of Semenyo, the Cherries recorded a net profit of £20.7 million amid a spending spree of £43.3 million during this window.

Aston Villa: Aston Villa continued to generate both excitement and frustration in February 2026, securing a dramatic 3-2 comeback victory over Red Bull Salzburg in the Europa League to advance to the round of 16, while forward Ollie Watkins left the match with an apparent thigh injury, casting doubt on his availability for the next weekend; domestically, the team suffered a 1-0 home defeat to Brentford, with Tammy Abrahams early second-half equalizer disallowed by VAR for an alleged offside touch, and Kevin Schade was sent off, prompting coach Unai Emery to acknowledge the disappointment but emphasize the need for resilience, while recent transfer activities included the loan signing of Tammy Abraham and Douglas Luiz, along with the departure of Donyell Malen, reflecting Emerys intent to strengthen the squad despite recent setbacks.

Table analysis for the match between Bournemouth and Aston Villa

Bournemouth: Bournemouth is currently in 12th place with 33 points, comfortably away from the relegation zone, which starts at 18th place with 20 points. Considering this comfortable margin of 13 points for the first team in the relegation zone, the match against Aston Villa has moderate importance for Bournemouth. The team can try to improve its position and points but is not at immediate risk of relegation nor close to spots for continental competitions. Therefore, the game is important to maintain stability in the table and seek progress, but not decisive for the clubs season.

Aston Villa: Aston Villa holds a prominent position, in 3rd place, with 46 points, currently securing a spot in the Champions League. As such, the match against Bournemouth is quite important for Villa, as it helps consolidate or improve their position among the teams competing in the biggest European competition. Each point gained can make a difference in the fight to stay or move up in the qualification zone for titles and international tournaments, especially since they are only 1 point behind the second place and 7 behind the leader. Therefore, this confrontation is crucial for Aston Villas objectives in this final stretch.

Summary: The match is more important for Aston Villa, which is fighting for spots in international competitions and aims to maintain its top position. For Bournemouth, the game is relevant to improve their ranking and secure their stay in the Premier League, but it is not decisive for their immediate goals. ⚽️

Odds and handicap movements for Bournemouth x Aston Villa

It is always useful to analyse how the odds and the handicap behaved over time. This helps us understand where the betting market is heading and what punters expect for the match between Bournemouth x Aston Villa.

Below you will see a summary that compares the opening odds with the current odds in the main markets: 1X2, handicap and goals.

Tips for the 1×2 market for Bournemouth x Aston Villa

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Bournemouth and Aston Villa.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1475440 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Is it a good idea to bet on Bournemouth?

🔵 Bournemouth: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 28.53% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.60. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 290 times – having a profit of $464.00;
• And would have lost other 710 times – with a loss of -$710.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$246.00.

Should you bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 30.23% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.60. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 300 times – having a profit of $780.00;
• And would lose other 700 times – having a loss of -$700.00 with them.

So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$80.00.

Is it worth betting on Aston Villa?

🔴 Aston Villa: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 41.24% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.45. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 410 times – profiting $594.50;
• And would lose other 590 times – losing -$590.00 with them.

It is a low stake bet, since after all you would have an final expected profit of just 💰$4.50. Which is not even that worthy considering the risk!

Handicaps analysis for the match Bournemouth x Aston Villa

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Bournemouth
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Bournemouth x Aston Villa

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 0.0 Bournemouth, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 0.0 Bournemouth.

Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Bournemouth x Aston Villa

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.75 goals.

Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Goals Handicap market.

FAQs: Common questions about the tip for Bournemouth x Aston Villa