Bournemouth x Chelsea Betting tips for December 6 in England Premier League

Our betting tip for Bournemouth x Chelsea, Saturday, 6/12/2025

📅 6/12/2025 15:00

Bournemouth 2.95

X 3.55

Chelsea 2.25

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Bournemouth x Chelsea:

🔮 Bournemouth wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Bournemouth, you can win up to $1475.00!

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Some important points for the tip for Bournemouth x Chelsea:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Bournemouth in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-125.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Chelsea in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $91.0.
👉 In the last 7 matches as the away team, Chelsea scored at least 1 goal(s).

🤖 Critical analysis from ChatGPT on our prediction for Bournemouth vs Chelsea:

Lets analyze the match between Bournemouth and Chelsea at the Vitality Stadium, Bournemouths home ground, which can positively influence their performance. Recent statistics show Bournemouth averages 1 goal scored and 1 conceded at home in recent games, with a reasonable record (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss). Chelsea, on the other hand, has a stronger offensive record away from home, averaging 2 goals scored and also conceding quite a few (average of 2 goals against), but maintains a good number of recent wins away from their stadium.

The implicit probabilities of median odds are: Bournemouth win ~34.5%, draw ~28.3%, Chelsea win ~43.9%. After normalization to total 100%, we get approximately: Bournemouth: 31%, Draw: 25%, Chelsea: 44%. This indicates a clear favoritism for Chelsea.

However, considering Bournemouths balanced offensive stats at home and Chelseas evident defensive issues (reports point to problems in central defense), along with pressure on the Blues after a recent heavy defeat, we can slightly adjust these probabilities to reflect greater balance:

• Bournemouth win: about 33%
• Draw: about 27%
• Chelsea win: about 40%

Thus, fair odds would be approximately:

• Bournemouth – fair odd ~3.03
• Draw – fair odd ~3.70
• Chelsea – fair odd ~2.50

Analyzing the final odds offered by bookmakers (Bournemouth @3.10; Draw @3.70; Chelsea @2.10), we see that the odds for the home team win are slightly above the fair value (~3.03 vs 3.10), indicating potential value in this bet.

Expected value assessment:
– Bournemouth win EV = ((3.10 / 3.03) -1)*100 ≈ +2%
– Draw EV = ((3.70 / 3.70) -1)*100 = 0%
– Chelsea win EV = ((2.10 / 2.50) -1)*100 ≈ -16%

No bet shows an expected value above +5%, so there is no clear positive value bet based on this conservative analysis.

📰 Important news:
Bournemouth faces key suspensions and injuries, along with instability in coaching — factors that may impair their home performance.
Chelsea, however, is under pressure after a recent heavy defeat and defensive criticisms; yet, they maintain internal confidence in their competitive capacity this season.

📈 Tactical/moral analysis:
Vitality Stadium is a place where Bournemouth usually has good possession (59%) and moderate offensive volume; Chelsea dominates possession away (60%) but suffers defensively.
Both teams need points badly — this could result in an open game with chances for both sides to score.

The Bets Kenya model clearly favors the home team win as a value bet (+10% EV). I understand this view considering that bookmakers might be slightly underestimating the home strength despite recent difficulties.
Final suggestion: betting on Bournemouths victory could be an interesting speculative bet with controlled risk due to the small positive expected value found (+~2%). A draw or Chelsea win does not present attractive value at current odds.

Good luck! ⚽🍀

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Analysis from Bournemouth x Chelsea for the England Premier League – 6 of December

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Bournemouth and Chelsea.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1449132 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Latest news on Bournemouth x Chelsea

Bournemouth: Bournemouth faced a tough period, dropping from ninth position after a 3-2 defeat to Sunderland on November 29 and extending a five-match winless streak in the Premier League, including a 1-0 loss to Everton on December 2, where a deflected goal by Jack Grealish was decisive; the club will also be without David Brooks, Marcos Senesi, and Lewis Cook in the next match, all serving suspensions, while injuries limited Adam Smiths participation despite his long service and ongoing contract negotiations, and rumors increased about the £65 million release clause of striker Antoine Semenyo, who attracted interest from Manchester City, all amidst ongoing uncertainties about the future of coach Andoni Iraola.

Chelsea: Chelsea suffered a 3-1 defeat to Leeds United on December 3, 2025, conceding early goals from J Bijol and later Ao Tanaka and Dominic Calvert-Lewin, while Pedro Neto scored a consolation goal for the Blues; post-match analysis highlighted persistent issues in the central defensive duo and questioned the goalkeepers quality for a title-contending team, prompting a reaction from Cole Palmer, and coach Enzo Maresca faced renewed pressure on the defensive organization. The team had previously drawn with Arsenal, after which captain Reece James expressed optimism and confidence that Chelsea can compete on all fronts this season. Transfer news remained silent, with no live updates available at the moment.

Table analysis for the match between Bournemouth and Chelsea

Bournemouth: Bournemouth is in 14th place with 19 points, far from the relegation zone, which starts with 11 points (West Ham), and needs about 40 points for safety. However, it is also distant from the positions qualifying for European competitions. Therefore, although the team has a comfortable margin to avoid relegation, it needs to earn more points to solidify its stay in the Premier League and move further away from the danger zone. The match against Chelsea is important to maintain this safety, avoiding a comfortable position in the final stretch of the championship.

Chelsea: Chelsea is in 4th place with 24 points, currently in the Champions League qualification zone. With only 1 point advantage over Crystal Palace (5th place) and a small difference to 3rd place Aston Villa, the game against Bournemouth could be decisive to maintain or even improve their position on the table. For Chelsea, this match is very important to secure their continued fight for spots in the most prestigious European competitions.

Summary: The game is more important for Chelsea, which seeks to consolidate its spot in the Champions League, while Bournemouth aims to ensure its stay in the Premier League more comfortably. Therefore, the duel has significant weight for both, especially for Chelsea, which seeks to establish itself at the top of the table.

Tips for the 1×2 market for Bournemouth x Chelsea

Is it a good idea to bet on Bournemouth?

🔵 Bournemouth: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 35.54%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.95. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 360 times – having a profit of $702.00;
• And would have lost other 640 times – with a loss of -$640.00 because of them.

So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$62.00.

Is it worth betting on draw?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 25.47% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.55. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 250 times – this would give you a profit of $637.50
• And would lose other 750 times – losing -$750.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$112.50.

Should you bet on Chelsea?

🔴 Chelsea: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 38.99% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.25. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 390 times – this would give you a profit of $487.50
• And would lose other 610 times – losing -$610.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$122.50.

Handicaps analysis for the match Bournemouth x Chelsea

The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Bournemouth
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Bournemouth x Chelsea

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 0.0 Bournemouth, and the current handicap offered by bookies is +0.25 Bournemouth.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: +0.25 Bournemouth.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Bournemouth x Chelsea

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.50 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.75 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: – 2.75 goals.