Brighton x Nottm Forest Betting tips for March 1 in England Premier League

Our betting tip for Brighton x Nottm Forest, Sunday, 1/3/2026

📅 1/3/2026 14:00

Brighton 2.10

X 3.50

Nottm Forest 3.30

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Brighton x Nottm Forest:

🔮 Nottm Forest wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Nottm Forest, you can win up to $1650.00!

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Important information for your tip for Brighton x Nottm Forest:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Brighton in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-356.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Nottm Forest in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $258.0.
👉 In the last 3 matches as the away team, Nottm Forest scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 6 Brighton matches as the home team, it finished under 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team, Brighton conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Brighton has not lost any of the last 5 head-to-head matches against Nottm Forest playing at home.

🤖 What does ChatGPT think about our prediction for Brighton vs Nottm Forest?

Lets analyze the match between Brighton and Nottingham Forest at the American Express Community Stadium, Brightons home ground, which has a capacity of about 31,900 spectators and provides a favorable environment for the home team.

📈 Table analysis: Brighton is in a more comfortable position in the Premier League, occupying 12th place after ending a poor streak with a recent win. Nottingham Forest is fighting relegation, in 17th place, desperately needing points to escape the danger zone. This table difference directly influences the teams motivation: Brighton with renewed confidence and Forest under intense pressure.

📰 Recent news: Brighton comes from an important victory that broke a negative streak and features experienced players like James Milner leading on the field. Coach Fabian Hurzeler highlights the leadership of the squad and good physical condition. On the other hand, Nottingham Forest is going through a tough time under Vitor Pereira, with no wins in four league games and facing controversial decisions within the squad during European competitions.

Calculation of fair probabilities:

• Based on median odds (2.1 for Brighton win; 3.5 draw; 3.3 Forest win), the implied probabilities are approximately: Brighton win = 47.62%, Draw = 28.57%, Forest win = 30.30%. Normalizing (sum >100% due to margin), we get: Brighton win ~40%, Draw ~24%, Forest win ~36%.
• Analyzing recent offensive/defensive stats: Brighton scores on average 1 goal at home, conceding about 1 goal; Nottingham scores more away (2 goals) but also concedes quite a bit (1 goal). Brightons high possession (~60%) suggests greater control of the match.
• Adding to this, the higher motivation due to table position and the home advantage confirmed by the Amex Stadium — my adjusted estimate would be close to: Brighton win ~45%, Draw ~25%, Forest win ~30%.

Analysis of fair odds:

• Adjusted to the above probabilities, the approximate fair odds are: Brighton ≈2.22; Draw ≈4; Forest ≈3.33.

Expected value (EV) analysis:

• Final odds given are: Home=2.05 / Draw=3.6 / Away=3.4;
• EV calculation considering my fair odds:
  • EV Home = ((2.05/2.22)-1)*100 ≈ -7%
  • EV Draw = ((3.6/4)-1)*100 ≈ -10%
  • EV Away = ((3.4/3.33)-1)*100 ≈ +2%

No bet shows a significant positive expected value (>5%), indicating current odds are relatively balanced or unfavorable for safe bets according to my analysis.

Comparison with Clube da Aposta model:

• The model predicts higher positive expected value only for the away win (+22%), suggesting a bet on Nottingham Forest despite recent difficulties;
• However, my analysis considers factors like the clear advantage of playing at the Amex Stadium — where Brighton has good defensive performance — plus the high morale after a recent victory;
• I partially disagree with this suggestion as I see a lower realistic chance of the away win overcoming the involved risks;
• I recommend caution or even avoiding betting on this game given the low expected value of the current options.

Betting is always about finding a clear advantage! Here we have a balanced scenario where even the favorites do not present a large positive margin in the current odds 🤔⚽️

Looking for more options of bookmakers for your bet on Brighton x Nottm Forest?

If you already have an account on Bet365 or want other options of bookmakers, do not worry! This list below was carefully created taking you into consideration. These are the best betting sites analysed by us in 2026. You just have to click, deposit and bet:

Analysis from Brighton x Nottm Forest for the England Premier League – 1 of March

Latest news on Brighton x Nottm Forest

Brighton & Hove Albion: Brighton & Hove Albion secured a 2-0 victory over Brentford on February 21, 2026, ending a six-match winless streak and climbing to 12th place in the Premier League. James Milner became the player with the most appearances in the history of the competition, reaching 654 matches and scoring one goal. Midfielder Carlos Baleba said he feels more relaxed after the early-season pressure and is regaining form, while coach Fabian Hurzeler praised Milners leadership and physical condition. The Seagulls now await their upcoming matches with renewed confidence.

Nottingham Forest: Nottingham Forest, now managed by Vitor Pereira, remains in a precarious position in the Premier League, occupying 17th place and with only two points less than Tottenham after a four-match winless streak. In recent European competitions, the team had mixed results: they resisted a 2-1 home defeat to Fenerbahçe on February 26, 2026, advancing to the Europa League round of 16 on aggregate 4-2, despite Pereiras controversial decision to change six starters; and earlier, on February 22, 2026, they lost 1-0 to Liverpool at the City Ground, a match marked by a VAR disallowed goal in the final minutes, leaving Forest fans outraged.

England Premier League table analysis for Brighton x Nottm Forest

Brighton: Brighton is in 14th place with 34 points, positioned in a relatively safe zone in the middle of the table, far from both the relegation zone and European competition spots. With this score and position, the match against Nottm Forest is important to earn points and secure Premier League survival, but it is not decisive for fighting for titles or important classifications at this stage of the competition.

Nottm Forest: Nottm Forest is in 17th place with 27 points, very close to the relegation zone. They are clearly fighting to escape relegation, and every point is crucial to move away from the bottom. Therefore, the match against Brighton is highly important for Forest, as it could be a crucial step to ensure their stay in England’s top football league.

Summary: The game is of great importance for Nottm Forest, which fights against relegation, while for Brighton, although not decisive, it is relevant to consolidate their safety in the Premier League. The match has a greater impact for the visiting team, but for both, earning points in this final stretch is important.

How the handicap and odds moved for Brighton x Nottm Forest

Before confirming your prediction, it is worth taking a look at how the odds have moved since the market opened. When the market adjusts the price (even slightly) it is usually because money flowed in, new information emerged or the bookmakers recalibrated their risk.

Below you will find a summary comparing opening odds with current odds in the main markets for Brighton x Nottm Forest (1X2, handicap and goals).

Tips for the Match Odds market for Brighton x Nottm Forest

When the best bet on Brighton x Nottm Forest is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1488452 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Should you bet on Brighton?

🔵 Brighton: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 36.19% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.10. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 360 times – profiting $396.00;
• And would lose other 640 times – losing -$640.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$244.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 27.83% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.50. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 280 times – profiting $700.00;
• And would lose other 720 times – having a loss of -$720.00 with them.

Although this bet has some value, notice that the expected profit is just 💰$20.00, which is not worth the risk in our point of view.

Should you bet on Nottm Forest?

🔴 Nottm Forest: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 35.98%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.30. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 360 times – having a profit of $828.00;
• And would have lost other 640 times – with a loss of -$640.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$188.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Brighton x Nottm Forest

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Brighton
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Brighton x Nottm Forest

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 0.0 Brighton, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.25 Brighton.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.25 Nottm Forest.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Brighton x Nottm Forest

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.75 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.50 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.

FAQs: Common questions about the tip for Brighton x Nottm Forest