Burnley x Brentford Betting tips for February 28 in England Premier League

Our betting tip for Burnley x Brentford, Saturday, 28/2/2026

📅 28/2/2026 15:00

Burnley 4.00

X 3.75

Brentford 1.82

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Burnley x Brentford:

🔮 Burnley wins the match
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Some important points for the tip for Burnley x Brentford:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Burnley in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-315.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Brentford in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $415.0.
👉 In the last 3 matches as the away team, Brentford scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team against Brentford, Burnley scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 6 matches as the home team, Burnley conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Brentford is hard to beat as a visitor: it has 3 wins in a row in its last road matches.
👉 Burnley has won all the last 3 matches playing at home against Brentford.

🤖 What does ChatGPT have to say about our prediction for Burnley vs Brentford?

🔥 What an interesting match we have ahead at Turf Moor between Burnley and Brentford! Lets analyze the data to better understand the real probabilities of this game.

📊 Recent statistics show that Burnley has been struggling at home, conceding 9 goals in the last 5 home games and only 1 win in that period. They score an average of 2 goals per game at home but also concede the same amount, indicating a fragile balance. Meanwhile, Brentford is strong away, with 4 wins in the last 5 away matches and an average of just 1 goal conceded per game away from their stadium. Additionally, Brentford takes more shots (12) than Burnley (11) and has a higher average possession (52% vs 51%).

🎯 The median odds clearly favor Brentford (1.83), while Burnleys win is priced quite high (4.0). A draw is an intermediate option (3.75). Normalized implied probabilities from the median odds are approximately: Burnley Win ~23%, Draw ~27%, Brentford Win ~50%. This makes sense given the current form of the teams.

💡 Considering recent offensive/defensive stats and league position — with Burnley fighting desperately against relegation in the red zone and Brentford aiming for European qualification — it’s natural that the visitors are favorites to win this match.

📰 About news: Burnley is in a delicate situation in the Premier League, occupying the penultimate position with only one win in the last 18 league games! Despite that, they recently managed an important draw against Chelsea, which could boost team morale. On the other hand, Brentford lost recently to Brighton but still maintains a good league position, aiming for European qualification; their coach lamented lack of intensity in the last game and is expected to make tactical adjustments.

📈 In the Premier League table, this translates into enormous pressure on Burnley to urgently earn points at home against this direct mid-table opponent like Brentford — which could lead to an open but risky game for the Clarets due to their recent defensive fragility.

✅ The Bets Kenya model suggests positive value only on the home win with EV +10.94%, even considering their high odds (~4). I disagree with this optimistic view of Burnleys chances to win here because poor defensive stats combined with psychological pressure are strong negative factors; additionally, the real probabilities implied by the odds are too low to justify this as a safe value bet.

I would indeed bet on Brentford, as they have shown consistency away and are in a better technical and psychological moment despite the recent loss; their real chances are around 50% according to odds analysis adjusted for recent stats.
A draw also doesnt seem like a good option given the recent low number of such results between them.
Therefore, my suggestion is to bet on the visiting Brentford, even with a lower final odd (~1.75), as it offers greater security based on current evidence.
Expected value for this bet would be positive above +5% considering a realistic scenario of recent performances.

Always remember: sports betting involves risks! Use these analyses as a guide to complement your personal knowledge 😉⚽️

Do you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Burnley x Brentford?

If you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Burnley x Brentford, no problem. Right below you have the sports betting sites that we used the most in 2026. You will be in good hands on any of them, just pick your favorite and start betting:

Analysis from Burnley x Brentford for the England Premier League – 28 of February

Latest news on Burnley x Brentford

Burnley: Burnley is currently in 19th place in the 2025-26 Premier League, eight points below the safety zone and having won only one of their last 18 league matches, raising fears of an immediate relegation back to the Championship under coach Scott Parker; however, a late equalizer secured a 1-1 draw at home against Chelsea, giving the Clarets a small hope in the relegation battle, while the club also faces a serious racism issue after midfielder Hannibal (and player Wesley Fofana) were targeted with online abuse after the match, prompting Burnley to issue a strong condemnation, report the incidents to Meta and Lancashire police, and reaffirm their zero-tolerance policy against discrimination.

Brentford: Brentford suffered a 2-0 home defeat to Brighton, with goals from Diego Gómez and Danny Welbeck undermining the Bees pursuit of European qualification and leaving the team in seventh place in the Premier League table as the season enters its final stretch; coach Keith Andrews lamented the lack of intensity in the first half, stating that the team did not replicate the level that made them one of the best in the league in recent weeks and that several players underperformed, prompting tactical changes to try to provoke a reaction, while off the field midfielder Michael Kayode drew attention with an original reveal of the babys gender in a “throw-in” that won fans over.

England Premier League table analysis for Burnley x Brentford

Burnley: Burnleys situation on the table is quite concerning, occupying 19th place with only 19 points, already in the relegation zone. With few rounds remaining, the team is fighting against relegation, making this match extremely important to try to earn valuable points and still hold some hope of staying in the Premier League. Every point is essential to move away from the drop zone.

Brentford: Brentford is in 7th place with 40 points, still close to competing for a spot in European competitions. This match represents an important opportunity for the team to consolidate its position in the upper middle of the table and try to get closer to clubs fighting for Champions League or Europa League spots. Therefore, the game is crucial to keep the dream of international qualification alive.

Summary: This confrontation is very important for both Burnley, which is in a direct fight against relegation, and Brentford, which seeks to establish itself in the race for European competition spots. A game full of emotion and relevance for both sides! ⚽🔥

Odds and handicap movements for Burnley x Brentford

We will also look at how the odds and handicap have evolved over time. This approach helps capture the market sentiment for the fixture between Burnley x Brentford.

Below you will find a summary comparing opening odds with current odds in the principal markets: 1X2, handicap and goals.

Tips for the Match Odds market for Burnley x Brentford

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Burnley and Brentford.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1488477 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Is it a good idea to bet on Burnley?

🔵 Burnley: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 23.78% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 4.00. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 240 times – having a profit of $720.00;
• And would lose other 760 times – having a loss of -$760.00 with them.

It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$40.00.

Is it worth betting on draw?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 19.86% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.75. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 200 times – this would give you a profit of $550.00
• And would lose other 800 times – having a loss of -$800.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$250.00.

Is betting on Brentford worth it?

🔴 Brentford: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 56.36% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.82. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 560 times – profiting $459.20;
• And would have lost other 440 times – with a loss of -$440.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$19.20.

Handicaps analysis for the match Burnley x Brentford

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Burnley
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Burnley x Brentford

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 0.0 Burnley, and the current handicap offered by bookies is +0.75 Burnley.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.75. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: +0.75 Burnley.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Burnley x Brentford

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.75 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.50 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.

FAQs: Common questions about the tip for Burnley x Brentford