Burnley x Manchester United Betting tips for January 7 in England Premier League

Our betting tip for Burnley x Manchester United, Wednesday, 7/1/2026

📅 7/1/2026 20:15

Burnley 4.50

X 3.89

Manchester United 1.73

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Burnley x Manchester United:

🔮 Manchester United wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Manchester United, you can win up to $865.00!

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The main points for the tip for Burnley x Manchester United:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Burnley in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-500.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Manchester United in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-30.0.
👉 In the last 8 matches as the away team, Manchester United scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 5 head-to-head matches between Burnley x Manchester United, with Burnley as the home team, they finished under 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 8 matches as the away team, Manchester United conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Playing as the home team, Burnley conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 5 head-to-head against Manchester United.

🤖 ChatGPT’s take on our prediction for Burnley vs Manchester United:

🔥 The match between Burnley and Manchester United at Turf Moor promises to be a challenge for the Clarets, who are going through a tough phase. With only 3 goals scored in the last 5 home games and conceding 9, and not having won any of these matches, Burnley shows defensive and offensive fragility. On the other hand, Manchester United has an average of 2 goals scored per away game recently and has a more efficient attack.

📊 The implied probabilities of median odds are: Burnley victory around 22%, draw about 26%, and Manchester United victory approximately 52%. After normalization to adjust the house margin, the fair estimated probabilities are close to this.

📈 Analyzing the league table (even without exact data), we know Burnley is fighting relegation with a long negative streak (11 games without a win), while Manchester United seeks to approach European spots despite key absences. This gives the visitor greater motivation to seek the three points.

📰 The news reinforce this analysis: Burnley faces serious problems in the technical team and squad, with key players leaving or injured; meanwhile, Manchester United also suffers injuries but maintains tactical stability under Ruben Amorim. Turf Moor is truly Burnleys home, but their poor form greatly reduces their home advantage.

💡 My suggestion is to bet on Manchester Uniteds victory, which shows a significant positive expected value due to recent technical superiority, better offensive performance away, and a more favorable motivational situation. The Bets Kenya model suggests odds close to my estimates but indicates a higher positive value on betting for the home team (Burnley) — I disagree given the overall negative context of the Clarets.

✅ Therefore: Recommended Bet – Manchester United Win, as it offers a better risk-return ratio considering recent statistics, current news, and league position.
Expected value calculated for this bet is above +5%, indicating a good opportunity!

Do you want other suggestions of bookmakers to bet on Burnley x Manchester United?

If you already have an account on Bet365 or want other options of bookmakers, do not worry! This list below was carefully created taking you into consideration. These are the best betting sites analysed by us in 2026. You just have to click, deposit and bet:

Analysis from Burnley x Manchester United for the England Premier League – 7 of January

The latest news about Burnley x Manchester United

Burnley: Burnleys recent form continues to decline, with a 2-0 defeat to Brighton, extending their winless streak in the Premier League to eleven matches – the longest in the division – and highlighting a widespread lack of confidence among the squad, a sentiment shared by defender Hjalmar Ekdal, who described the performance as “shameful”. Coach Scott Parker admitted that the team was “bad in every aspect” and emphasized the need for a quick change in both attitude and performance. In response, Parker indicated that the club will be active in the January transfer window, focusing on loan signings to strengthen the midfield and wingers, while managing the wage bill, and will need to replace several players with expiring contracts, including goalkeeper Martin Dubravka, midfielder Josh Laurent, defender Vaclav Hladky, and forward Ashley Barnes, as they fight to avoid relegation.

Manchester United: Manchester United, under the management of Portuguese coach Ruben Amorim, is facing a lean squad, as Mason Mount, Bruno Fernandes, Matthijs de Ligt, Harry Maguire, and Kobbie Mainoo remain injured, and Bryan Mbeumo, Amad Diallo, and Noussair Mazraoui are serving at the Africa Cup of Nations. Amorim repeatedly stated that there are no active transfer negotiations in the January window and that any reinforcement will come in the summer, prioritizing at least one central midfielder signing and possibly reinforcements for wingers, attackers, or defenders; his relationship with the board has become tense due to tactical disagreements and his insistence that he was hired as the head coach. After a 1-1 draw with Leeds United on January 4 – leaving United with only one win in five league games and still close to Champions League spots, but eight points behind the leaders – they travel to face Burnley without new players in this window.

Table analysis for the match between Burnley x Manchester United

Burnley: Burnley is in 19th place, within the relegation zone, with only 12 points. With the match at the beginning of January and already accumulating many defeats, the team is in a critical situation and needs points to try to escape relegation. This match against Manchester United is very important for Burnley, as every point counts in the fight to stay out of the drop zone. It is a matter of life or death for them. ⚠️

Manchester United: Manchester United is in 6th place with 31 points, fighting for a spot in the Europa League or even the Champions League next season. Finding stability and winning away games against relegation zone teams is essential to maintain or improve their position before the final stretch of the league. Therefore, for Manchester United, this match is also important to keep pressure on the rivals ahead and secure these valuable points.

Summary: The game is important for both Burnley, which seeks to avoid relegation, and Manchester United, which wants to secure a place in European competitions. A decisive match for both teams! ⚽🔥

Tips for the 1×2 market for Burnley x Manchester United

When the best bet on Burnley x Manchester United is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1460319 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Is it worth betting on Burnley?

🔵 Burnley: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 19.64% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 4.50. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 200 times – profiting $700.00;
• And would lose other 800 times – having a loss of -$800.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$100.00.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 17.79% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.89. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 180 times – profiting $520.20;
• And would lose other 820 times – losing -$820.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$299.80.

Is it a good idea to bet on Manchester United?

🔴 Manchester United: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 62.58% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.73. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 630 times – this would give you a profit of $459.90
• And would have lost other 370 times – with a loss of -$370.00 because of them.

So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$89.90.

Handicaps analysis for the match Burnley x Manchester United

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.5 Burnley
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Burnley x Manchester United

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be +0.5 Burnley, and the current handicap offered by bookies is +0.75 Burnley.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: +0.75 Burnley.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Burnley x Manchester United

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.75 goals.

Since there is not big differences between the handicap offered by bookies and the one suggested by our algorithm, we can consider that there is no value to bet on the Goals Handicap market.