Burnley x Newcastle Betting tips for December 30 in England Premier League
| 📅 30/12/2025 19:30 |
 Burnley5.00 |
X 3.90 |
Newcastle  1.67 |
This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Burnley x Newcastle:
🔮 Newcastle wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Newcastle, you can win up to $835.00!
The main points for the tip for Burnley x Newcastle:
👉 If you had bet $100 on Burnley in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-150.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Newcastle in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-240.0.
👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against Newcastle, Burnley scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 head-to-head matches between Burnley x Newcastle, with Burnley as the home team, they finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team, Burnley conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 7 matches as the away team, Newcastle conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Playing as the home team, Burnley conceded at least 2 goal(s) in all the last 3 head-to-head against Newcastle.
👉 It is not a good time for Burnley as home team: it comes from 4 losses in a row in its last home matches.
👉 Even as a visitor, Newcastle won the last 3 head-to-head matches Burnley´s territory
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Analysis from Burnley x Newcastle for the England Premier League – 30 of December
🏟️ Burnley X Newcastle – England Premier League
📅 30 of December, 2025 – 19:30
🔵 Burnley – Winning probability: 7.54% | Fair line: 13.26
⚪ Tied game – Probability of tied match: 18.10% | Fair line: 5.52
🔴 Newcastle – Winning probability: 74.36% | Fair line: 1.34
⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.5 Burnley
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 9.75 corner kicks
A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Burnley and Newcastle.
And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1456398 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:
Tips for the 1×2 market for Burnley x Newcastle
Is it worth betting on Burnley?
🔵 Burnley: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 7.54% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 5.00. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 80 times – profiting $320.00;
- And would lose other 920 times – having a loss of -$920.00 with them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$600.00.
Should you bet on draw?
⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 18.1%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.90. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 180 times – profiting $522.00;
- And would have lost other 820 times – with a loss of -$820.00 because of them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$298.00.
Is it worth betting on Newcastle?
🔴 Newcastle: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 74.36% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.67. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 740 times – profiting $495.80;
- And would have lost other 260 times – with a loss of -$260.00 because of them.
Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$235.80.
Handicaps analysis for the match Burnley x Newcastle
Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..
This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.5 Burnley
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Burnley x Newcastle
⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is +0.5 Burnley and the available handicap to bet at the moment is +0.75 Burnley.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: +0.75 Burnley.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Burnley x Newcastle
⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.75 goals.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: – 2.75 goals.
