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Home ยป Predictions ยป English Premier League ยป Burnley x West Ham Betting tips for November 25 in England Premier League
Saturday, 25 November 2023, 00h00 England Premier League
Burnley Burnley
PREDICTION West Ham Wins Probability 73% 1 X 2
West Ham West Ham
ODD: @2.1 Don't miss this prediction! BET NOW Don't miss this prediction!

Burnley x West Ham Betting tips for November 25 in England Premier League

Our betting tip for Burnley x West Ham, Saturday, 25/11/2023
๐Ÿ“… 25/11/2023
15:00
Burnley Burnley
3.25
X
3.50
West Ham West Ham
2.10

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Burnley x West Ham:

๐Ÿ”ฎ West Ham wins the match
๐Ÿ’ฐ When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on West Ham, you can win up to $1050.00!

Or access: https://www.bet365.com
 

Important information for your tip for Burnley x West Ham:

๐Ÿ‘‰ If you had bet $100 on Burnley in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-500.
๐Ÿ‘‰ If you had bet $100 on West Ham in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-240.0.
๐Ÿ‘‰ In the last 4 matches as the away team, West Ham scored at least 1 goal(s).
๐Ÿ‘‰ In the last 4 West Ham matches as the away team, it finished over 2.5 goals.
๐Ÿ‘‰ In the last 6 matches as the home team, Burnley conceded at least 1 goal(s).
๐Ÿ‘‰ In the last 4 matches as the away team, West Ham conceded at least 1 goal(s).
๐Ÿ‘‰ It is not a good time for Burnley as home team: it comes from 6 losses in a row in its last home matches.
๐Ÿ‘‰ It is not a good time for West Ham as away team: it comes from 3 losses in a row in its last away matches.

๐Ÿ“Š Check out the analysis from this match on Betfellows: Complete prognostic for Burnley x West Ham

Place your Bet with Bet365 Bonus

Summary

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Analysis from Burnley x West Ham for the England Premier League – 25 of November

๐ŸŸ๏ธ Burnley X West Ham – England Premier League
๐Ÿ“… 25 of November, 2023 – 15:00
๐Ÿ”ต Burnley – Winning probability: 14.39% | Fair line: 6.95
โšช Tied game – Probability of tied match: 12.11% | Fair line: 8.26
๐Ÿ”ด West Ham – Winning probability: 73.50% | Fair line: 1.36
โš– Handicap 1×2: +0.5 Burnley
โšฝ Expected goals: 3.00 goals
โ›ณ Expected corner kicks: 9.50 corner kicks

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Burnley x West Ham right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1024927 matches on the database from our soccer prognostics platform, Betfellows, looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Burnley x West Ham

Should you bet on Burnley?

๐Ÿ”ต Burnley: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 14.39% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.25. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 140 times – this would give you a profit of $315.00
  • And would have lost other 860 times – with a loss of -$860.00 because of them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of ๐Ÿ’ฐ-$545.00.

Should you bet on draw?

โšช draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 12.11% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.50. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 120 times – profiting $300.00;
  • And would have lost other 880 times – with a loss of -$880.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of ๐Ÿ’ฐ-$580.00.

Should you bet on West Ham?

๐Ÿ”ด West Ham: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 73.5% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.10. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

  • Would hit 730 times – this would give you a profit of $803.00
  • And would lose other 270 times – losing -$270.00 with them.

That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of ๐Ÿ’ฐ$533.00.

Place your Bet with Bet365 Bonus

Handicaps analysis for the match Burnley x West Ham

The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on soccer betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

โš– Handicap 1×2: +0.5 Burnley
โšฝ Expected goals: 3.00 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Burnley x West Ham

โš– Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be +0.5 Burnley, and the current handicap offered by bookies is +0.5 Burnley.

Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Burnley x West Ham

โšฝ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.00 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.75 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.75 goals.

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Written by

Autor
Humberto Alves

Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.

> Check other content created by Humberto Alves