Crystal Palace x Chelsea Betting tips for January 4 in England Premier League

Our betting tip for Crystal Palace x Chelsea, Saturday, 4/1/2025

📅 4/1/2025 15:00

Crystal Palace 4.10

X 3.80

Chelsea 1.81

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Crystal Palace x Chelsea:

🔮 Chelsea wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Chelsea, you can win up to $905.00!

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Or access: https://www.bet365.com 

The main points for the tip for Crystal Palace x Chelsea: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Crystal Palace in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-345.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Chelsea in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $125.0. 👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team, Crystal Palace scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 3 Crystal Palace matches as the home team, it finished over 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team, Crystal Palace conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 Playing as the home team, Crystal Palace conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 5 head-to-head against Chelsea. 👉 Even as a visitor, Chelsea won the last 5 head-to-head matches Crystal Palace´s territory

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Analysis from Crystal Palace x Chelsea for the England Premier League – 4 of January

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Crystal Palace x Chelsea right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1241796 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Crystal Palace x Chelsea

Is betting on Crystal Palace worth it?

🔵 Crystal Palace: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 11.86%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 4.10. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 120 times – profiting $372.00;
• And would lose other 880 times – having a loss of -$880.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$508.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 17.14% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.80. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 170 times – having a profit of $476.00;
• And would lose other 830 times – having a loss of -$830.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$354.00.

Is it worth betting on Chelsea?

🔴 Chelsea: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 71.0% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.81. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 710 times – having a profit of $575.10;
• And would have lost other 290 times – with a loss of -$290.00 because of them.

It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$285.10.

Handicaps analysis for the match Crystal Palace x Chelsea

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +1.0 Crystal Palace
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Crystal Palace x Chelsea

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be +1.0 Crystal Palace, and the current handicap offered by bookies is +0.75 Crystal Palace.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.75 Chelsea.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Crystal Palace x Chelsea

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.00 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 3.00 goals.

The handicap that our algorithm found is the same as the bookies, which means that there is not any value to bet on the Goals Handicap market.