Everton x Arsenal Betting tips for December 20 in England Premier League

Our betting tip for Everton x Arsenal, Saturday, 20/12/2025

📅 20/12/2025 20:00

Everton 5.00

X 3.65

Arsenal 1.70

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Everton x Arsenal:

🔮 Arsenal wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Arsenal, you can win up to $850.00!

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The main points for the tip for Everton x Arsenal:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Everton in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $200.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Arsenal in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-367.0.
👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team, Everton scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 head-to-head matches between Everton x Arsenal, with Everton as the home team, they finished under 2.5 goals.

🤖 Critical analysis from ChatGPT on our prediction for Everton vs Arsenal:

Lets analyze the match between Everton and Arsenal at Hill Dickinson Stadium, which is Evertons new stadium, so they usually play at home. 🏟️

📈 Arsenal has shown superior performance in recent away games, averaging 2 goals scored and only 1 conceded, with higher ball possession (58%) and more accurate shots (8 per game) compared to Everton, which has a balanced average of 2 goals scored and conceded, lower possession (49%), and fewer accurate shots (4). This indicates that Arsenal is more offensive and better controlling the matches.

📰 Recent news reports indicate Everton has been facing difficulties with important away losses and internal issues like a controversial red card for Idrissa Gueye. Meanwhile, Arsenal is in good form with dramatic victories even without some key defenders due to injuries. The young Noni Madueke also brings a new offensive threat to the Gunners.

Analyzing the median odds given by bookmakers: Everton win at 4.9, draw at 3.62, and Arsenal win at 1.71; the normalized implied probabilities are approximately: home team ~18%, draw ~27%, away team ~55%. Considering recent offensive/defensive stats and news, these probabilities make sense.

The fair odds considering all these factors would suggest a fair odds for the away team victory close to or slightly above the current offer (~1.7), while the odds for the home team should be higher due to recent defensive fragility and missing players (~5+). A draw seems reasonable near the offered odds (~3.6-3.9).

Based on our calculations, betting on Arsenal has a significant positive EV (>15%), while betting on Everton or a draw does not present a relevant positive expected value.

Suggestion: Betting on Arsenals victory is the best choice here! They are better technically, have a tactical advantage evidenced by recent stats, and maintain good morale despite the absences in the opponents defense.

Bet suggested by Bets Kenya: Away team victory with low predicted odds but high positive expected value (+15%). I fully agree! It’s a safe bet considering everything analyzed.

Always remember: betting involves risks! Use this analysis as support for your decision 😉⚽

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Analysis from Everton x Arsenal for the England Premier League – 20 of December

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Everton x Arsenal right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1455033 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

The latest news about Everton x Arsenal

Everton: Everton suffered a 2-0 defeat at Stamford Bridge on December 13, 2025, when Chelseas Cole Palmer opened the scoring before Malo Gusto netted the second goal, leaving Sean Dyches team without points and extending the winless streak of coach Sean Moyes in away games against Chelsea in the Premier League to 21 matches; a few days later, on December 16, 2025, midfielder Idrissa Gueye received a red card for slapping teammate Michael Keane during Evertons victory over Manchester United early in the season, with VAR confirming the decision as a clear face punch, and the Toffees next game is at home against Manchester United on February 23.

Arsenal: Arsenal continued a good run in mid-December, with the mens team securing a dramatic 2-1 victory over Wolves, who are at the bottom, on December 14, ensuring the win with a late own goal after a 90-minute draw, while Mikel Arteta warned that the teams defense has been “passive and unacceptable” and confirmed that Ben White is out due to a thigh injury, with Gabriel Magalhães and Cristhian Mosquera also sidelined, while William Saliba returned to play full minutes; additionally, Noni Madueke brought a new offensive threat, scoring twice in the recent victory over Club Brugge and intensifying the competition with Bukayo Saka, and Arsenals womens team maintained their European campaign by easily defeating OH Leuven 3-0 in the Womens Champions League on December 17, with goals from Olivia Smith, Beth Mead, and an own goal, although they finished fifth in the group stage and face a playoff draw to determine the next opponent.

Table analysis for the game between Everton and Arsenal

Everton: Currently in 9th place with 24 points, Everton is outside the qualification zone for international competitions but also far from relegation. The team needs to earn points to try to reach the top group and secure a spot in the Europa League, as they are only 2 points behind Crystal Palace, who is in 5th place, a qualification zone for European competition. The match against Arsenal is important to keep this hope alive and continue fighting for a better position in the table.

Arsenal: Leader of the league with 36 points, Arsenal is well positioned to win the title or at least secure a spot in the Champions League, thanks to a comfortable lead and goal difference. The match against Everton is essential to maintain this leadership and increase the gap to direct competitors, reinforcing strength in the final stretch of the league. Every point gained is valuable to maintain the advantage at the top.

Summary: This match is important for both teams: for Arsenal, its an opportunity to consolidate the league leadership; for Everton, its a chance to close the gap to European spots and improve their position. An exciting game with fierce competition! ⚽🔥

Tips for the Match Odds market for Everton x Arsenal

Is it worth betting on Everton?

🔵 Everton: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 6.32% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 5.00. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 60 times – profiting $240.00;
• And would lose other 940 times – having a loss of -$940.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$700.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 15.81% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.65. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 160 times – having a profit of $424.00;
• And would lose other 840 times – losing -$840.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$416.00.

Should you bet on Arsenal?

🔴 Arsenal: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 77.88% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.70. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 780 times – profiting $546.00;
• And would lose other 220 times – having a loss of -$220.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$326.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Everton x Arsenal

The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +1.0 Everton
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Everton x Arsenal

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be +1.0 Everton, and the current handicap offered by bookies is +0.75 Everton.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.75 Arsenal.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Everton x Arsenal

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.75 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.50 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.