Everton x Manchester United Betting tips for February 23 in England Premier League

Our betting tip for Everton x Manchester United, Monday, 23/2/2026

📅 23/2/2026 20:00

Everton 3.60

X 3.70

Manchester United 1.95

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Everton x Manchester United:

👎 Umm…too bad! We did not find any positive expected value bets for Everton x Manchester United

Some important points for the tip for Everton x Manchester United:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Everton in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-500.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Manchester United in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $50.0.
👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team, Everton scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 7 matches as the away team, Manchester United scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 head-to-head matches between Everton x Manchester United, with Everton as the home team, they finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 6 matches as the home team, Everton conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 7 matches as the away team, Manchester United conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Playing as the home team, Everton conceded at least 2 goal(s) in all the last 3 head-to-head against Manchester United.
👉 In the last 4 road matches, Manchester United has not lost any of them.

🤖 ChatGPT’s take on our prediction for Everton vs Manchester United:

⚽ The match between Everton and Manchester United at Hill Dickinson Stadium promises to be an interesting duel, but with some important nuances to consider. Everton, despite playing in their new and modern stadium, Hill Dickinson Stadium, has faced difficulties adapting to the venue. With only 3 wins in the last 15 home games in the Premier League and an average of goals conceded higher than goals scored (1 goal scored per game versus 2 conceded), the team has not yet found its best defensive form on the new stage.

📈 Conversely, Manchester United arrives energized by an undefeated streak under interim manager Michael Carrick, with solid away performance: an average of 2 goals scored per game and higher ball possession (57%). This shows a more confident offensive visiting team capable of controlling matches away from their stadium.

📰 Recent news indicates Everton is going through a delicate period adapting to the new stadium, with psychological issues affecting players and fans. Meanwhile, Manchester United is surrounded by speculation about technical changes and possible transfers that could impact the team in the short term. However, the motivation of the Toffees to seek a European spot could be an extra factor to try to surprise at home.

Analyzing the median odds (Everton: 3.54; Draw: 3.68; Manchester United: 1.95), we have approximate normalized implied probabilities around:

• Everton win: ~26%
• Draw: ~27%
• Manchester United win: ~47%

Adjusting for recent statistics — especially considering Evertons defensive fragility at the new stadium versus Manchester Uniteds good form — my fair estimate would be close to:

• Everton win: 22%
• Draw: 25%
• Manchester United win: 53%

Thus, fair odds would be approximately:

• Everton win ~4.5
• Draw ~4.0
• Manchester United win ~1.9

The comparison with final odds indicates a positive expected value only on the bet for Manchester Uniteds victory (EV calculated by the model is +3.21%), while bets on the draw or Evertons win show negative EV.

Final suggestion:
Bet on Manchester United victory, as well as the favorable statistics for the visitor combined with Evertons recent instability at Hill Dickinson Stadium, this bet shows a positive expected value above the minimum recommended margin (+5% ideally). The scenario suggests that even playing “at home,” Everton has not yet established itself as a strong host at this venue.

Good luck! 🍀⚽️

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📰 Relevant news:
Everton is facing psychological difficulties adapting to their new Hill Dickinson Stadium after recent change; meanwhile, Manchester United is surrounded by speculation about coaching and transfers but maintains good form under interim manager Carrick.

📈 Table analysis:
Everton is in eighth place seeking a European spot, while Manchester United seeks tactical stability after a coaching change; this increases pressure on the home team but also motivates confident visitors due to their recent undefeated streak away.

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Analysis from Everton x Manchester United for the England Premier League – 23 of February

Latest news on the match between Everton and Manchester United

Everton: Everton is ready to host Manchester United in a Premier League clash on Monday, February 23, 2026, at 8:00 PM. The match is considered an important test for the Toffees, who are eighth in the table after 26 games, with 37 points and a negative goal difference (-1). Midfielder James Garner has been standout with impressive performances and is being considered for an England national team call-up. Additionally, the clubs womens team recently secured a 1-0 victory over West Ham in the Women’s Super League.

Manchester United: Manchester United is at the center of intense transfer and management speculation, with former captain Michael Carrick described as a strong candidate for the head coach position, while ex-Crystal Palace striker Robbie Keane is also linked to a coaching vacancy at another club. The management signaled willingness to release forward Jadon Sancho on a free transfer this summer and, after recent media summaries, expressed regret over selling Marcus Rashford to Barcelona for just £26 million, a value now considered undervalued. Off the field, co-owner Sir Jim Ratcliffe faced criticism for controversial comments on immigration, receiving a quick reminder from the FA about his media responsibilities, but the organization confirmed he will not face disciplinary action. The Premier League match against Everton scheduled for February 20 was postponed for live coverage, leaving fans awaiting updates on the team and potential signings.

Table analysis for the game between Everton and Manchester United

Everton: Everton is in 8th place with 37 points, tied with the 9th place team, but with a slightly better goal difference. With 6th place only 5 points away, the match against Manchester United is a great opportunity for Everton to try to move up the table and perhaps secure a spot in international competitions. Therefore, this game is important for Everton to continue fighting for better positions.

Manchester United: Manchester United is in 4th place with 45 points, in the Champions League qualification zone, just 1 point behind the 5th place. A win would give them more breathing room in the fight for this top spot, and also create distance from competitors. The game is decisive for Manchester United to maintain their position among the top teams and secure a spot in prestigious international competitions.

Summary: The match is important for both teams, as it involves a direct contest in the standings: Everton wants to climb the table, and Manchester United needs to secure their presence in the top league and international competitions.

Odds and handicap movements for Everton x Manchester United

We will also look at how the odds and handicap have evolved over time. This approach helps capture the market sentiment for the fixture between Everton x Manchester United.

Below you will find a summary comparing opening odds with current odds in the principal markets: 1X2, handicap and goals.

Tips for the 1×2 market for Everton x Manchester United

When the best bet on Everton x Manchester United is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1484598 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Is betting on Everton worth it?

🔵 Everton: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 25.28% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.60. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 250 times – profiting $650.00;
• And would have lost other 750 times – with a loss of -$750.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$100.00.

Is it worth betting on draw?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 22.29%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.70. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 220 times – having a profit of $594.00;
• And would have lost other 780 times – with a loss of -$780.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$186.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on Manchester United?

🔴 Manchester United: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 52.43% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.95. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 520 times – this would give you a profit of $494.00
• And would have lost other 480 times – with a loss of -$480.00 because of them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$14.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Everton x Manchester United

The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.75 Everton
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Everton x Manchester United

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be +0.75 Everton, and the current handicap offered by bookies is +0.5 Everton.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.5 Manchester United.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Everton x Manchester United

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.50 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.

FAQs: Frequently asked questions about the tip for Everton x Manchester United