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Home » Predictions » English Premier League » Fulham x Southampton Betting tips for December 22 in England Premier League
Sunday, 22 December 2024, 14h00 England Premier League
Fulham Fulham
PREDICTION Fulham wins Probability 90% 1 X 2
Southampton Southampton
ODD: @1.46 Don't miss this prediction!

Fulham x Southampton Betting tips for December 22 in England Premier League

Our betting tip for Fulham x Southampton, Sunday, 22/12/2024
📅 22/12/2024
14:00
Fulham Fulham
1.46
X
4.50
Southampton Southampton
6.00

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Fulham x Southampton:

🔮 Fulham wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Fulham, you can win up to $730.00!

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Some important points for the tip for Fulham x Southampton:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Fulham in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-75.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Southampton in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500.
👉 In the last 6 matches as the home team, Fulham scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 4 Southampton matches as the away team, it finished under 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 6 matches as the home team, Fulham conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 7 matches as the away team, Southampton conceded at least 1 goal(s).

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Summary

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Analysis from Fulham x Southampton for the England Premier League – 22 of December

🏟️ Fulham X Southampton – England Premier League
📅 22 of December, 2024 – 14:00
🔵 Fulham – Winning probability: 90.28% | Fair line: 1.11
Tied game – Probability of tied match: 5.08% | Fair line: 19.67
🔴 Southampton – Winning probability: 4.63% | Fair line: 21.58
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.75 Fulham
⚽ Expected goals: 3.25 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 10.50 corner kicks

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Fulham x Southampton right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1239261 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Fulham x Southampton

Is it worth betting on Fulham?

🔵 Fulham: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 90.28% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.46. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 900 times – this would give you a profit of $414.00
  • And would lose other 100 times – having a loss of -$100.00 with them.

So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$314.00.

Should you bet on draw?

draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 5.08% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 4.50. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 50 times – profiting $175.00;
  • And would lose other 950 times – having a loss of -$950.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$775.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on Southampton?

🔴 Southampton: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 4.63% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 6.00. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

  • Would hit 50 times – profiting $250.00;
  • And would have lost other 950 times – with a loss of -$950.00 because of them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$700.00.

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Handicaps analysis for the match Fulham x Southampton

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.75 Fulham
⚽ Expected goals: 3.25 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Fulham x Southampton

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -1.75 Fulham, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -1.25 Fulham.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -1.25 Fulham.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Fulham x Southampton

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.25 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 3.00 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 3.00 goals.

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Written by

Autor
Humberto Alves

Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.

> Check other content created by Humberto Alves
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