Leeds x Nottm Forest Betting tips for February 6 in England Premier League

Our betting tip for Leeds x Nottm Forest, Friday, 6/2/2026

📅 6/2/2026 20:00

Leeds 2.25

X 3.25

Nottm Forest 3.20

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Leeds x Nottm Forest:

👎 Unfortunately, we do not have any positive expected value tips for Leeds x Nottm Forest

Some important points for the tip for Leeds x Nottm Forest:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Leeds in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-15.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Nottm Forest in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $163.0.
👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team against Nottm Forest, Leeds scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Playing as the home team, Leeds conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 3 head-to-head against Nottm Forest.
👉 Leeds has not lost any of the last 5 head-to-head matches against Nottm Forest playing at home.

🤖 Critical analysis from ChatGPT on our prediction for Leeds vs Nottm Forest:

Lets analyze the match between Leeds and Nottingham Forest at Elland Road stadium, which has been the true home of Leeds since 1919, with a capacity of over 37,000 fans, creating an environment that is often quite intimidating for visitors. 🏟️

📈 In terms of recent performance, Leeds has shown a balanced offensive and defensive record at home: scored 9 goals and conceded 9 in the last five home games, with two wins and only one loss. Nottingham Forest away from home scored more goals (11) but also conceded quite a bit (12), showing a team that seeks to attack but can leave spaces behind. Leedss average ball possession is higher (48%) compared to the visitors (40%), indicating moderate control of the game when playing at home.

📰 Recent news shows Leeds has been facing transfer window difficulties and suffered a heavy defeat against Arsenal recently, but maintains a historic unbeaten record against them at Elland Road since 2000 — demonstrating resilience playing on their home turf. Nottingham Forest is energized by a convincing win in the Europa League and showed strength even when playing with ten players against Crystal Palace in the Premier League.

Analyzing the median odds offered by bookmakers: Leeds win at 2.28, draw at 3.25, and Forest win at 3.20; the normalized implied probabilities are approximately: Leeds win ~43%, draw ~31%, Forest win ~31%. Considering recent statistical data — especially the defensive and offensive balance of both teams — this distribution seems fair.

However, our internal model predicts slightly higher odds for all options (Leeds: ~2.31; draw: ~3.34; Forest: ~3.74), suggesting less confidence in the visitors win compared to the bookmakers odds.

Evaluating the expected value at the current market odds (Leeds @2.15; Draw @3.30; Forest @3.40) versus our calculated fair probabilities:

• Leeds Win: EV negative (-6.88%), indicating a unfavorable bet
• Draw: EV close to zero (-1.14%), no clear value
• Forest Win: EV even more negative (-9.11%)

Thus, we do not identify bets with a positive expected value above +5% in this match according to our combined analysis.

Final suggestion:

Betting on the exact result or alternative markets might be more interesting here due to the closeness of the teams strengths and recent balanced history — especially considering both teams have similar average goals scored/conceded recently.
The Bets Kenya Club model recommends total caution without clear bets in this game — I fully agree! ⚠️

Always remember the importance of strict bankroll management!

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Analysis from Leeds x Nottm Forest for the England Premier League – 6 of February

Latest news on Leeds x Nottm Forest

Leeds United: Leeds United was defeated 4-0 at Elland Road by Arsenal on January 31, 2026, with an own goal by Karl Darlow and two goals from Ødegaard opening the score, while Noni Madueke, brought on to replace the injured Bukayo Saka, provided two assists in the first half and was named the best player of the match. Daniel Farke acknowledged that his team was not at its best against the league leaders; in the January transfer window, Leeds missed out on signing Jorgen Strand Larsen, who transferred to Crystal Palace after the club failed to reach the £40 million cap, and the only signing was a one-season loan of midfielder Facundo Buonanotte from Brighton, raising concerns about goalkeeper and full-back injuries with no solution. However, Leeds remains unbeaten against Arsenal in 16 matches and has not lost at Elland Road since November 2000.

Nottingham Forest: Nottingham Forest finished the Europa League group stage with a 4-0 victory over Ferencvaros on January 30, 2026, securing a spot in the playoff round, although they did not qualify among the top eight. Igor Jesus scored two goals and James McAtee converted a late penalty. In team news, starters Ola Aina, Murillo, Callum Hudson-Odoi, and Morgan Gibbs-White stayed on the bench, while Zach Abbott and McAtee started the match. Later, the team returned to the Premier League and drew 1-1 away against Crystal Palace on February 3, 2026, despite playing with ten men for much of the second half. Off the field, Forest’s £25 million offer for Celtic midfielder Arne Engels — consisting of £20 million guaranteed plus £5 million in add-ons — was rejected for the second time, prompting the club to seek alternative reinforcements for the next playoff round against Panathinaikos or Fenerbahçe.

Table analysis for the match between Leeds x Nottm Forest

Leeds: Leeds is in 16th place with 26 points, tying with Nottm Forest, which is just below. The team is close to the relegation zone and definitely wants to avoid dropping to the Championship. Therefore, this game is extremely important for Leeds, which needs points to distance itself from the threatened teams and secure its stay in the Premier League.

Nottm Forest: Nottm Forest is in 17th place, also with 26 points, in the danger zone, increasing the need to win to escape relegation. The match against Leeds is crucial for Nottm Forest, as it could be a decisive step to leave the relegation zone and maintain chances of staying in the top division.

Summary: A game of great importance for both teams, who are tied in 16th and 17th positions and are fighting directly to avoid relegation. A victory could be decisive for whoever manages to create distance in the table and ensure more peace of mind in the final rounds.

How the handicap and odds moved for Leeds x Nottm Forest

It is always useful to analyse how the odds and the handicap behaved over time. This helps us understand where the betting market is heading and what punters expect for the match between Leeds x Nottm Forest.

Below you will see a summary that compares the opening odds with the current odds in the main markets: 1X2, handicap and goals.

Tips for the Match Odds market for Leeds x Nottm Forest

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Leeds x Nottm Forest right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1475020 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Is it a good idea to bet on Leeds?

🔵 Leeds: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 42.65%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.25. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 430 times – having a profit of $537.50;
• And would lose other 570 times – having a loss of -$570.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$32.50.

Is it worth betting on draw?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 30.24% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.25. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 300 times – profiting $675.00;
• And would lose other 700 times – losing -$700.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$25.00.

Should you bet on Nottm Forest?

🔴 Nottm Forest: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 27.11% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.20. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 270 times – profiting $594.00;
• And would lose other 730 times – losing -$730.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$136.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Leeds x Nottm Forest

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.25 Leeds
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Leeds x Nottm Forest

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be +0.25 Leeds, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.25 Leeds.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.50, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.25 Nottm Forest.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Leeds x Nottm Forest

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.25 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.

FAQs: Common questions about the tip for Leeds x Nottm Forest